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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

1. Introduction Climate-change experiments with numerical climate models produce projections of changes in the water cycle. These projections include changes in fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) and storage (snowpack, soil water, and groundwater). The value of these projections for long-term water-resource planning and risk analysis is compromised by many factors, but here we focus on three problems: 1) the biases in the modeled historical climates, 2) the coarse

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

calibration of a model’s simulation of SR, PET, and water balance. This process ensures that intermediate model fluxes as well as the water balance are simulated consistently with measured values (see Hay et al. 2006c ). Reliably reproducing the baseline period is important because any biases are likely to transfer to the future simulations of flow ( Prudhomme and Davies 2009 ). Assessments of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation baseline conditions (mean monthly baseline conditions; WYs

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

more urbanized areas in Colorado and other states. Recent studies, however, suggest that tourism and skiing in particular are at risk from climate change ( Aspen Global Change Institute 2006 ; Williamson et al. 2008 ). Projections of future climatic conditions are needed to determine the potential effects of climate change on Colorado’s water resources. General circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios ( Alley et al. 2007 ). Local

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