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Howard J. Diamond, Andrew M. Lorrey, and James A. Renwick

across the SW Pacific waters south of the equator. The SPEArTC domain also includes the SPCZ region, plus the Coral Sea, the Tasman Sea, and the equatorial Pacific Ocean from east of the Maritime Continent to the Niño-3.4 region east of eastern Kiribati ( Fig. 1 ). b. Coupled ENSO index ENSO dominates seasonal to interannual climate variability in the Pacific region ( Philander 1990 ) and comprises two dynamically linked components. The atmospheric component (the Southern Oscillation) ( Walker and

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Steven J. Phipps, Helen V. McGregor, Joëlle Gergis, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Raphael Neukom, Samantha Stevenson, Duncan Ackerley, Josephine R. Brown, Matt J. Fischer, and Tas D. van Ommen

–model comparison is used to compare the model simulations with two multiproxy temperature reconstructions. We seek to identify the drivers of hemispheric-scale temperature, building upon existing studies of the Northern Hemisphere and extending them to assess the drivers of past changes in the Southern Hemisphere. In section 4 , the forward approach is then used to compare the model simulations with a coral δ 18 O record from the central Pacific Ocean. We build upon previous work in developing simple forward

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Michelle Ho, Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd, Anthony S. Kiem, and Russell N. Drysdale

associated error, paleoclimate data can serve as proxy records of hydroclimatic variables such as rainfall and streamflow, as well as large-scale ocean–atmospheric processes including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the southern annular mode (SAM). While significant advances have been made in the development of proxies for large-scale ocean–atmospheric processes and local hydroclimatology, proxy hydroclimatic records are

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Ailie J. E. Gallant, Steven J. Phipps, David J. Karoly, A. Brett Mullan, and Andrew M. Lorrey

effects, resulting in hemispheric or even global responses in climate. Teleconnections are responsible for a significant proportion of Australasian climate variability, defined as the region of the southwest Pacific that includes Australia and New Zealand ( Fig. 1 ). Annual and subannual fluctuations in the Australasian atmosphere and ocean state have been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ( McBride and Nicholls 1983 ; Gordon 1986 ; Karoly 1989 ; Drosdowsky 1993 ; Mullan 1995

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Tessa R. Vance, Tas D. van Ommen, Mark A. J. Curran, Chris T. Plummer, and Andrew D. Moy

local, meridional, or depositional factors. Annual LD sea salt concentrations are related to the strength of the large-scale circulation system over the Antarctic continent in winter (the Antarctic high) and its effect on the latitudinal belt occupied by the circumpolar trough ( Souney et al. 2002 ). On a seasonal scale, early winter (MJJ) sea salts at LD are related to the midlatitude mean sea level pressure (MSLP) field in the southern Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans ( Goodwin et al. 2004

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B. Timbal and R. Fawcett

raises the possibility that the observed increase in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) ( Timbal and Hope 2008 ) at the latitudes of southern Australia is driving the rainfall anomalies ( Nicholls 2010 ). Timbal and Hendon (2011) have shown that the observed rainfall deficiency across SEA could not be accounted for by naturally occurring modes of variability generated within the tropics such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, which were previously suggested as a plausible

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