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Anthony Wimmers, Christopher Velden, and Joshua H. Cossuth


A deep learning convolutional neural network model is used to explore the possibilities of estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from satellite images in the 37- and 85–92-GHz bands. The model, called “DeepMicroNet,” has unique properties such as a probabilistic output, the ability to operate from partial scans, and resiliency to imprecise TC center fixes. The 85–92-GHz band is the more influential data source in the model, with 37 GHz adding a marginal benefit. Training the model on global best track intensities produces model estimates precise enough to replicate known best track intensity biases when compared to aircraft reconnaissance observations. Model root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 14.3 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.5144 m s−1) compared to two years of independent best track records, but this improves to an RMSE of 10.6 kt when compared to the higher-standard aircraft reconnaissance-aided best track dataset, and to 9.6 kt compared to the reconnaissance-aided best track when using the higher-resolution TRMM TMI and Aqua AMSR-E microwave observations only. A shortage of training and independent testing data for category 5 TCs leaves the results at this intensity range inconclusive. Based on this initial study, the application of deep learning to TC intensity analysis holds tremendous promise for further development with more advanced methodologies and expanded training datasets.

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Kenneth R. Knapp, Christopher S. Velden, and Anthony J. Wimmers


Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) generally produce a cloud-free center with calm winds, called the eye. The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) algorithm is used to analyze Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) B1 infrared satellite imagery data for storms occurring globally from 1982 to 2015. HURSAT B1 data provide 3-hourly observations of TCs. The result is a 34-yr climatology of eye location and size. During that time period, eyes are identified in about 13% of all infrared images and slightly more than half of all storms produced an eye. Those that produce an eye have (on average) 30 h of eye scenes. Hurricane Ioke (1992) had the most eye images (98, which is 12 complete days with an eye). The median wind speed of a system with an eye is 97 kt (50 m s−1) [cf. 35 kt (18 m s−1) for those without an eye]. Eyes are much more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly in the western Pacific) but eyes are larger in the Southern Hemisphere. The regions where eyes occur are expanding poleward, thus expanding the area at risk of TC-related damage. Also, eye scene occurrence can provide an objective measure of TC activity in place of those based on maximum wind speeds, which can be affected by available observations and forecast agency practices.

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