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Chih-Pei Chang
,
Ngar-Cheung Lau
,
Richard H. Johnson
, and
Meiyan Jiao

Abstract

No abstract available.

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Chih-Pei Chang
,
Richard H. Johnson
,
Kyung-Ja Ha
,
Daehyun Kim
,
Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau
,
Bin Wang
,
Michael M. Bell
, and
Yali Luo
Full access
Chih-Pei Chang
,
Michael Ghil
,
Hung-Chi Kuo
,
Mojib Latif
,
Chung-Hsiung Sui
, and
John M. Wallace
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Bin Wang
,
Michela Biasutti
,
Michael P. Byrne
,
Christopher Castro
,
Chih-Pei Chang
,
Kerry Cook
,
Rong Fu
,
Alice M. Grimm
,
Kyung-Ja Ha
,
Harry Hendon
,
Akio Kitoh
,
R. Krishnan
,
June-Yi Lee
,
Jianping Li
,
Jian Liu
,
Aurel Moise
,
Salvatore Pascale
,
M. K. Roxy
,
Anji Seth
,
Chung-Hsiung Sui
,
Andrew Turner
,
Song Yang
,
Kyung-Sook Yun
,
Lixia Zhang
, and
Tianjun Zhou
Full access
Bin Wang
,
Michela Biasutti
,
Michael P. Byrne
,
Christopher Castro
,
Chih-Pei Chang
,
Kerry Cook
,
Rong Fu
,
Alice M. Grimm
,
Kyung-Ja Ha
,
Harry Hendon
,
Akio Kitoh
,
R. Krishnan
,
June-Yi Lee
,
Jianping Li
,
Jian Liu
,
Aurel Moise
,
Salvatore Pascale
,
M. K. Roxy
,
Anji Seth
,
Chung-Hsiung Sui
,
Andrew Turner
,
Song Yang
,
Kyung-Sook Yun
,
Lixia Zhang
, and
Tianjun Zhou

Abstract

Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.

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Yali Luo
,
Renhe Zhang
,
Qilin Wan
,
Bin Wang
,
Wai Kin Wong
,
Zhiqun Hu
,
Ben Jong-Dao Jou
,
Yanluan Lin
,
Richard H. Johnson
,
Chih-Pei Chang
,
Yuejian Zhu
,
Xubin Zhang
,
Hui Wang
,
Rudi Xia
,
Juhui Ma
,
Da-Lin Zhang
,
Mei Gao
,
Yijun Zhang
,
Xi Liu
,
Yangruixue Chen
,
Huijun Huang
,
Xinghua Bao
,
Zheng Ruan
,
Zhehu Cui
,
Zhiyong Meng
,
Jiaxiang Sun
,
Mengwen Wu
,
Hongyan Wang
,
Xindong Peng
,
Weimiao Qian
,
Kun Zhao
, and
Yanjiao Xiao

Abstract

During the presummer rainy season (April–June), southern China often experiences frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall, leading to severe flooding and inundations. To expedite the efforts in improving the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) of the presummer rainy season rainfall, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) initiated a nationally coordinated research project, namely, the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) that was endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The SCMREX RDP (2013–18) consists of four major components: field campaign, database management, studies on physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall events, and convection-permitting numerical experiments including impact of data assimilation, evaluation/improvement of model physics, and ensemble prediction. The pilot field campaigns were carried out from early May to mid-June of 2013–15. This paper: i) describes the scientific objectives, pilot field campaigns, and data sharing of SCMREX; ii) provides an overview of heavy rainfall events during the SCMREX-2014 intensive observing period; and iii) presents examples of preliminary research results and explains future research opportunities.

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