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Takeshi Watanabe and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

The variation of the summer monsoon onset over South Asia was investigated by using long-term data of the onset over Kerala, India, during the 64-yr period from 1948 to 2011. It was found that the onset over Kerala shows variation on a multidecadal scale. In early-onset years, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the northern Pacific Ocean was very similar to the negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The stationary wave train related to the negative PDO reaches into central Asia and generates a warm anomaly, thereby intensifying the land–sea thermal contrast, which promotes summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. The correlation between the onset date over Kerala and the PDO has strengthened since 1976. Analysis of zonal wind in the upper-level troposphere for the period 1958–2002 indicates that the change in the correlation is related to the change in the wave train path. The wave train propagating from the northern Pacific Ocean to western Russia could propagate eastward more easily in 1976–2002 than in 1958–75.

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Yasuko Okada and Koji Yamazaki

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The Okinawa baiu (summer rainy season) starts in early May and ends in late June, preceding the baiu in mainland Japan by approximately 1 month. This study investigates the time evolution of the large-scale circulation associated with the Okinawa baiu using 10-yr (1997–2006) climatologies of precipitation and meteorological fields, with particular focus on temperature advection at 500 hPa.The onset of the Okinawa baiu occurs in early May and is followed by an initial peak in precipitation during mid-May. The baiu rainband then moves southeastward, leading to a short break in baiu precipitation during late May. The rainband returns to Okinawa in early June, and a second peak in precipitation occurs during mid-June. The baiu rainband withdraws northward in late June. The mid-May precipitation peak is associated with warm advection at 500 hPa, mainly due to the meridional temperature gradient and the prevailing southerly winds. This warm advection coincides with upward motion near Okinawa; however, the warm advection is insufficient to explain the peak precipitation amount. Enhancement of precipitation by a transient disturbance probably contributes to the peak amount. The break period during late May coincides with the peak of South China Sea monsoon. Warm advection at 500 hPa strengthens again in June because of the strong zonal thermal contrast between the warm Tibetan Plateau and cold Pacific. This warm advection is able to adequately explain both the upward motion and precipitation. These results indicate that the large-scale meteorological characteristics are different during the first and second peaks.

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Takeshi Watanabe and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

The upper-level troposphere over the western Tibetan Plateau, where the subtropical jet is located in summer, is a region of marked intraseasonal variability in geopotential height (GPH). This study investigates the influence of an anomaly in this region on the summer Asian monsoon. To this end, the GPH index is defined as the daily geopotential height anomaly at 200 hPa over the region based on 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Composites with respect to strongly positive values of the GPH index are analyzed.

The results indicate that the temporary anomaly in the subtropical jet influences the monsoon over South Asia, Southeast Asia, and probably also over East Asia, because of two main processes: the eastward propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby wave anomalies at upper and lower levels along the subtropical jet, and a belt of strong westerlies at 15°N (Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal–the Philippines).

The two mechanisms that underlie the lower-level Rossby wave anomaly are discussed here for the first time, based on the Rossby ray-path theory, as follows: 1) anomalous descent generated by the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly over Afghanistan and the western Tibetan Plateau causes the development of a heat low over the Thar Desert and neighboring areas, and 2) an anomalous southwesterly appears over the Arabian Sea, accompanied by the heat low, and interacts with the Western Ghats, resulting in an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian subcontinent. The anomaly then starts to propagate eastward along a Rossby waveguide.

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Shinji Matsumura and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

The summer climate in northern Eurasia is examined as a function of anomalous snow cover and processes associated with land–atmosphere coupling, based on a composite analysis using observational and reanalysis data. The analysis confirms that the snow–hydrological effect, which is enhanced soil moisture persisting later into the summer and contributing to cooling and precipitation recycling, is active in eastern Siberia and contributes to the formation of the subpolar jet through the thermal wind relationship in early snowmelt years.

Strong anticyclonic differences (early − late snowmelt years) with a baroclinic structure form over eastern Siberia as a result of surface heating through the snow–hydrological effect in early snowmelt years. Surface heating contributes to the development of thermally generated stationary Rossby waves that propagate eastward to eastern Siberia. Rossby wave activity is maintained into early autumn, together with cyclonic differences over far eastern Siberia, in conjunction with the early appearance of snow cover in this region. The anticyclonic differences over eastern Siberia act like a blocking anticyclone, thereby strengthening upstream storm track activity. Furthermore, it is possible that surface anticyclonic differences over the Arctic contribute to year-to-year variability of summer Arctic sea ice concentration along the Siberian coast. The results suggest that variations in northern Eurasian snow cover and associated land–atmosphere coupling processes have important implications for the predictability of Eurasian subarctic summer climate.

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Koji Yamazaki and Carlos R. Mechoso

Abstract

The evolution of the flow in the Southern Hemisphere during the period 31 August-10 November 1979 is examined. The final stratospheric warming of 1979 and the associated reversal of the flow above 10 mb occurred during this period. It is found that this warming processs was newly monotonic but modulated by a series of events with enhanced eddy activity.

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Shinji Matsumura, Xiangdong Zhang, and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

Anticyclonic circulation has intensified over the Arctic Ocean in summer during recent decades. However, the underlying mechanism is, as yet, not well understood. Here, it is shown that earlier spring Eurasian snowmelt leads to anomalously negative sea level pressure (SLP) over Eurasia and positive SLP over the Arctic, which has strong projection on the negative phase of the northern annular mode (NAM) in summer through the wave–mean flow interaction. Specifically, earlier spring snowmelt over Eurasia leads to a warmer land surface, because of reduced surface albedo. The warmed surface amplifies stationary Rossby waves, leading to a deceleration of the subpolar jet. As a consequence, rising motion is enhanced over the land, and compensating subsidence and adiabatic heating occur in the Arctic troposphere, forming the negative NAM. The intensified anticyclonic circulation has played a contributing role in accelerating the sea ice decline observed during the last two decades. The results here provide important information for improving seasonal prediction of summer sea ice cover.

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Yafei Wang, Koji Yamazaki, and Yasushi Fujiyoshi

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This study deals with two teleconnection patterns and the subsequent wave train propagations during an East Asian summer. Diagnostic results are as follows: 1) a stationary wave ray with zonal wavenumber 5 approximates the arc path linking the correlation centers originating from the Caspian Sea via Lake Baikal to the sea off the southeast coast of Japan (i.e., the OKJ arc path as a focus area) in a pentad correlation map between 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at 30°N, 150°E in June 1979–98. Ray tracing shows that it took 8–10 days for this stationary wave to propagate from an initial position around the Caspian Sea to the focus area, which roughly coincides with the observed case in July 1998. 2) A wave train pattern (P-Ja) observed in the boreal summer propagated along the arc line in the same way as the normal poleward Rossby wave train originating from the Philippines across the North Pacific (P-J), but with a phase shift northeastward of about 90°. 3) Further correlation analyses showed that the P-J-like waves belong mainly to intraseasonal propagating ones while OKJ waves belong mainly to intraseasonal stationary ones. 4) Propagation of the newly observed wave train pattern (P-Ja) occurred following another wave train along the OKJ arc path in mid-July 1998. Both northeastward and southeastward wave propagations merged off the east coast of Japan. 5) The northeastward-propagating wave train observed in mid-July 1998 was triggered by the southeastward-propagating (OKJ) wave train that produced a deep cyclonic circulation and a strong convective activity in the focus area. The link of wave forcing and deep convection was made solely because of a strong upper-level divergence in the focus area.

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Carlos R. Mechoso, Koji Yamazaki, Akio Kitoh, and Akio Arakawa

Abstract

The predictability of the stratospheric warming events during the winter of 1979 is investigated by performing a series of 10-day forecasts using the UCLA general circulation model. In general, those events are predictable from several days in advance. The accuracy of the prediction, however, can be sensitive to the starting date and such model characteristics as the horizontal resolution. This sensitivity seems to arise because relatively small errors in the predicted tropospheric zonal mean wind can produce large differences in the characteristics of upward wave propagation and thereby large errors in the stratospheric forecast.

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Kenta Kawasaki, Yoshihiro Tachibana, Tetsu Nakamura, and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

Summertime temperatures in marginal seas are, in general, colder than on the surrounding continent because of the large contrast in heat capacity between the land and the ocean. The Okhotsk Sea, which is covered by sea ice until early summer, is much colder than the surrounding continent in summer. The Okhotsk Sea is thus located in an area with one of the largest temperature contrasts of all the marginal seas in summertime midlatitudes. Cooled air over the Okhotsk Sea may have an impact on remote summer climates, such as by serving as the source of cold-air advection that results in a poor crop harvest in Japan. Here, we examine the role of the Okhotsk Sea on the early summer climate of the western part of the North Pacific through an ideal numerical experiment by artificially changing the model’s default oceanic condition in the Okhotsk Sea to a condition of land cover. Simulation results reveal that the presence of the Okhotsk Sea increases precipitation of the baiu/mei-yu front through strengthening of the northward moisture flux at the western edge of an intensified North Pacific subtropical high. The Okhotsk influence farther extends toward western North America to which the strengthened jet stream with a storm track extends. This remote influence is achievable through feedback from a transient eddy anomaly that is activated by the surface temperature gradient between the cold Okhotsk Sea and the warm Pacific Ocean. The findings imply that the existence of the Okhotsk Sea strengthens the East Asian summer monsoons.

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Dennis L. Hartmann, Carlos R. Mechoso, and Koji Yamazaki

Abstract

Variations of zonal mean and eddy properties in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter of 1979 are studied. Several periods of enhanced wave activity and rapid zonal-mean changes are observed. During these periods of rapid change both the actual zonal wind tendency and the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence have a dipole pattern in the upper stratosphere, with positive values in high latitudes and negative values in middle and low latitudes. The positive values of E-P flux divergence near the pole are particularly interesting, since they suggest a possible source of wave activity in this region. The stationary component of wavenumber 1 and the eastward traveling component of wavenumber 2 contribute most to the dipole pattern of wave driving in the stratosphere.

A nearly uniform deceleration of the mean flow in the troposphere is contributed to by all zonal wavenumbers from 1 to 10. The lower wavenumbers contribute most to the driving in high latitudes, while the driving in lower latitudes is contributed mostly by high wavenumbers. Wave forcing of the mean flow as measured by the E-P flux divergence and actual changes in the mean flow are correlated with each other, but the actual mean flow tendencies are often significantly smaller than the eddy driving. The largest correlations between E-P flux divergence and the observed zonal mean wind changes exceed 0.5 and occur both in the upper stratosphere near the jet core and near the tropopause across a broad range of latitudes.

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