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Lewis O. Grant

Abstract

The hypothesis used for the initial Climax wintertime cloud seeding experiment and for subsequent Climax replication-type experiments are described and briefly discussed. More recent physical studies of Colorado orographic clouds and seeding hypotheses are briefly summarized. These later tests and studies of orographic cloud seeding hypotheses emphasized direct and remotely sensed cloud and precipitation measurements utilizing instrumentation and modeling capabilities not available during the Climax statistical experiments. The conclusions suggested from the hypothesis testing, considering both the statistical experiments and the later physical studies, are summarized.

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Robert M. Rauber and Lewis O. Grant

Abstract

The Physical and microphysical structure of the supercooled water fields in wintertime storms over the Park Range of the northern Colorado Rocky Mountains is examined using aircraft and ground-based measurements. Cloud top, cloud base, and zones of strong orographic lift are identified as regions in stratiform systems where supercooled water production can occur. Cloud systems over Colorado's Park Range were found to have low droplet concentrations (≪300 cm−3). In clouds with the lowest droplet concentrations (<100 cm−3), broad droplet spectra were consistently observed. Significant numbers of large (<20 μm) droplets were present in these cases.

The data presented here and in Part I are used to construct conceptual models of the structure and evolution of the liquid water fields in 1) shallow cloud systems with warm cloud tops, 2) deep stratiform clouds with cold tops, and 3) deep convective regions.

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Robert M. Rauber and Lewis O. Grant

Abstract

A case study of an orographic cloud system that developed over the mountains or southern Utah is presented. The storm system contained supercooled liquid water over several hours, and produced almost no precipitation. Because of the high liquid water content, low ice particle concentrations, minimal precipitation, and long duration, the storm appears to have been a good candidate for seeding to augment precipitation. A preliminary analysis of the climatological frequency of orographic cloud systems over these mountains is discussed.

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Lewis O. Grant and Roger L. Steele

The output of effective ice nuclei from silver iodide generators can vary by at least three to four orders of magnitude as a function of the type of generator device employed and its operational efficiency. A detailed consideration of each phase of the process of calibrating silver iodide generators shows that with care meaningful calibrations to within a factor of 1.5 are possible.

The repeatability of actual calibration experiments together with space closed volume experiments support the validity of generator testing procedures.

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Lewis O. Grant and Robert E. Elliott

Abstract

The greatest potential for seeding with artificial ice nuclei to augment precipitation should occur with cloud summit temperatures in the range from about −10C to about −25C. This is the temperature region where there may be a deficiency of natural ice-forming nuclei. This cloud-top temperature range therefore constitutes a “temperature window” for seeding effectiveness. This article considers the results from a number of cloud seeding experiments reported in the literature with respect to this temperature window. The analysis of seven randomized experiments and references to four other experiments indicates that there is a window in the cloud-top temperature range for which precipitation increases are indicated. This extends from about −10C to about −24C for seeding conducted in the modes employed on these projects. At the coldest cloud-top temperatures, generally less than about −30C, decreases in precipitation are indicated. There are variations among the samples which appear to be explainable in terms of differences in the degree of convection present, the seeding methods used, or in the type of nucleant employed. No evidence is presented to show that the temperature window concept applies where there are strong dynamic effects, either natural or due to seeding, such as those in relatively large and isolated cumuli.

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Charles F. Chappell, Lewis O. Grant, and Paul W. Mielke Jr.

Abstract

The nature of precipitation changes resulting from seeding cold orographic clouds is examined by separating the observed total precipitation change into duration and intensity change components. The total precipitation change and its two components are then evaluated as functions of cloud temperature using precipitation data recorded in the primary target area during the cloud seeding experiment conducted near Climax, Colo. The results show that the total change in observed precipitation is mainly controlled by changes in precipitation duration, rather than intensity. The main effects of seeding appear to be the initiation of a precipitation release for the warmer clouds during many hours when it would not have occurred naturally, and the suppression of precipitation for the coldest clouds during some hours when it would have occurred naturally. These results are consistent with the concepts of cloud microstability and cloud over-seeding.

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Paul W. Mielke Jr., Lewis O. Grant, and Charles F. Chappell

Abstract

This study is concerned with the elevation and spatial variation effects of wintertime orographic cloud seeding over an area encompassing Fremont, Hoosier and Vail mountain passes in the central Colorado mountains during a period from 1960 to 1965. The observation network consisted of 65 precipitation stations distributed over the three passes. Depending on the grouping of precipitation stations used to represent the prime target area of the study, the average daily precipitation for all 120 seeded days was from 6 to 11% greater than the average daily precipitation for all 131 non-seeded days. There is a high probability that these differences could have occurred by chance alone.

Analyses have also been made according to physically defined stratifications based on a model which describes the seeding effects ascribed to the various strata. Statistically significant increases (decreases) were observed over much of the area for the seeded periods in comparison with the non-seeded periods when 500 mb temperatures were −20C and warmer (−27C and colder). Little or no effects were noted in the intermediate temperature range. When 500-mb wind velocities were from 22–28 m sec−1, statistically significant increases were observed during the seeded period in comparison with the non-seeded period throughout the area.

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David W. Reynolds, Thomas H. Vonder Haar, and Lewis O. Grant

During the past several years, many weather modification programs have been incorporating meteorological satellite data into both the operations and the analysis phase of these projects. This has occurred because of the advancement of the satellite as a mesoscale measurement platform, both temporally and spatially, and as the availability of high quality data has increased. This paper surveys the applications of meteorological satellite data to both summer and winter weather modification programs. A description of the types of observations needed by the programs is given, and an assessment of how accurately satellites can determine these necessary parameters is made.

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Taneil Uttal, Robert M. Rauber, and Lewis O. Grant

Abstract

The phase distribution of the water mass of a cold orographic cloud into vapor, liquid, and ice is calculated from measurements made from an instrumented aircraft. The vapor values are calculated from thermodynamic measurements, and the liquid is measured directly with a Johnson-Williams hot-wire device. Ice mass is calculated from particle size spectra obtained with a two-dimensional optical array cloud probe (2-D probe) and a knowledge of crystal habit based on decelerator measurements and cloud temperatures. Maximum vapor mass in the cloud is 2.0 g m−3, which is comparable with maximum ice mass in the cloud of 1.5 G m−3. Maximum liquid mass is approximately one order of magnitude lower at 0.15 g m−3 and appears to be a small remainder between the vapor and the ice as they compete for the major portion of the cloud water mass. In the cloud upwind of the mountain, liquid + vapor + ice is nearly constant, suggesting that precipitation does not deplete the water mass at the levels studied by the aircraft. Maxima in both ice and liquid mass appear just over the windward crest of the mountain, indicating a strong orographic effect on condensation of vapor to liquid and growth of ice by vapor diffusion and riming. The distribution of crystal habits also suggests a significant downdraft exists just downwind of the mountain.

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Paul W. Mielke Jr., Lewis O. Grant, and Charles F. Chappell

Abstract

An orographic cloud seeding experiment conducted in the vicinity of Climax, Colo., has been continued for five additional wintertime periods from 1965–70. A comparison of this new independent information is made with previously discussed wintertime operations of the experiment from 1960–65. As a whole, agreement between these independent data sets is good. In particular, the agreement in temperature and wind partitions is consistent with a previously reported model which describes seeding effects under various physically defined conditions. These comparisons have been made using pooled groups of precipitation sensors having similar elevations and locations.

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