Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 15 items for :

  • Author or Editor: Sebastien Masson x
  • Journal of Climate x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
,
Swadhin Behera
,
Satoru Shingu
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment–Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.

Hindcast results for the period 1982–2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9–12-month lead times.

In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7–12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

Full access
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
,
Erich Roeckner
,
Gurvan Madec
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

The cold tongue in the tropical Pacific extends too far west in most current ocean–atmosphere coupled GCMs (CGCMs). This bias also exists in the relatively high-resolution SINTEX-F CGCM despite its remarkable performance of simulating ENSO variations. In terms of the importance of air–sea interactions to the climatology formation in the tropical Pacific, several sensitivity experiments with improved coupling physics have been performed in order to reduce the cold-tongue bias in CGCMs.

By allowing for momentum transfer of the ocean surface current to the atmosphere [full coupled simulation (FCPL)] or merely reducing the wind stress by taking the surface current into account in the bulk formula [semicoupled simulation (semi-CPL)], the warm-pool/cold-tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific is simulated better than that of the control simulation (CTL) in which the movement of the ocean surface is ignored for wind stress calculation. The reduced surface zonal current and vertical entrainment owing to the reduced easterly wind stress tend to produce a warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific. Consequently, the dry bias there is much reduced. The warming tendency of the SST in the eastern Pacific, however, is largely suppressed by isopycnal diffusion and meridional advection of colder SST from south of the equator due to enhanced coastal upwelling near Peru. The ENSO signal in the western Pacific and its global teleconnection in the North Pacific are simulated more realistically.

The approach as adopted in the FCPL run is able to generate a correct zonal SST slope and efficiently reduce the cold-tongue bias in the equatorial Pacific. The surface easterly wind itself in the FCPL run is weakened, reducing the easterly wind stress further. This is related with a weakened zonal Walker cell in the atmospheric boundary layer over the eastern Pacific and a new global angular momentum balance of the atmosphere associated with reduced westerly wind stress over the southern oceans.

Full access
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
,
Swadhin Behera
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has profound socioeconomic impacts on not only the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean but also various parts of the world. A forecast system is developed based on a relatively high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM with only sea surface temperature (SST) information assimilated. Retrospective ensemble forecasts of the IOD index for the past two decades show skillful scores with up to a 3–4-month lead and a winter prediction barrier associated with its intrinsic strong seasonal phase locking. Prediction skills of the SST anomalies in both the eastern and western Indian Ocean are higher than those of the IOD index; this is because of the influences of ENSO, which is highly predictable. The model predicts the extreme positive IOD event in 1994 at a 2–3-season lead. The strong 1997 cold signal in the eastern pole, however, is not well predicted owing to errors in model initial subsurface conditions. The real-time forecast system with more ensembles successfully predicted the weak negative IOD event in the 2005 boreal fall and La Niña condition in the 2005/06 winter. Recent experimental real-time forecasts showed that a positive IOD event would appear in the 2006 summer and fall accompanied by a possible weak El Niño condition in the equatorial Pacific.

Full access
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
,
Swadhin K. Behera
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

Using a fully coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation model assimilating only sea surface temperature, the authors found for the first time that several El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past two decades can be predicted at lead times of up to 2 yr. The El Niño condition in the 1997/98 winter can be predicted to some extent up to about a 1½-yr lead but with a weak intensity and large phase delay in the prediction of the onset of this exceptionally strong event. This is attributed to the influence of active and intensive stochastic westerly wind bursts during late 1996 to mid-1997, which are generally unpredictable at seasonal time scales. The cold signals in the 1984/85 and 1999/2000 winters during the peak phases of the past two long-lasting La Niña events are predicted well up to a 2-yr lead. Amazingly, the mild El Niño–like event of 2002/03 is also predicted well up to a 2-yr lead, suggesting a link between the prolonged El Niño and the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Seasonal climate anomalies over vast parts of the globe during specific ENSO years are also realistically predicted up to a 2-yr lead for the first time.

Full access
Mathew Koll Roxy
,
Kapoor Ritika
,
Pascal Terray
, and
Sébastien Masson

Abstract

Recent studies have pointed out an increased warming over the Indian Ocean warm pool (the central-eastern Indian Ocean characterized by sea surface temperatures greater than 28.0°C) during the past half-century, although the reasons behind this monotonous warming are still debated. The results here reveal a larger picture—namely, that the western tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global mean sea surface temperature (SST). During 1901–2012, while the Indian Ocean warm pool went through an increase of 0.7°C, the western Indian Ocean experienced anomalous warming of 1.2°C in summer SSTs. The warming of the generally cool western Indian Ocean against the rest of the tropical warm pool region alters the zonal SST gradients, and has the potential to change the Asian monsoon circulation and rainfall, as well as alter the marine food webs in this biologically productive region. The current study using observations and global coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulations gives compelling evidence that, besides direct contribution from greenhouse warming, the long-term warming trend over the western Indian Ocean during summer is highly dependent on the asymmetry in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, and the positive SST skewness associated with ENSO during recent decades.

Full access
Tomoki Tozuka
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

Using outputs from the SINTEX-F1 coupled GCM, the thermodynamics of ENSO events and its relation with the seasonal cycle are investigated. Simulated El Niño events are first classified into four groups depending on during which season the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) index (5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) reaches its peak. Although the heat content of the tropical Pacific decreases for all four types, the tropical Pacific loses about twice as much during an El Niño that peaks during winter compared with one that peaks during summer. The surface heat flux, the southward heat transport at 15°S, and the Indonesian Throughflow heat transport contribute constructively to this remarkable seasonal difference. It is shown that the Indonesian Throughflow supplies anomalous heat from the Indian Ocean, especially during the summer El Niño–like event. Changes in the basic state provided by the seasonal cycle cause differences in the atmospheric response to the SSTA, which in turn lead to the difference between the surface heat flux and the meridional heat transport anomaly.

Full access
Tomoki Tozuka
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

The decadal variation in the tropical Indian Ocean is investigated using outputs from a 200-yr integration of the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F1) ocean–atmosphere coupled model. The first EOF mode of the decadal bandpass- (9–35 yr) filtered sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) represents a basinwide mode and is closely related with the Pacific ENSO-like decadal variability. The second EOF mode shows a clear east–west SSTA dipole pattern similar to that of the interannual Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and may be termed the decadal IOD. However, it is demonstrated that the decadal air–sea interaction in the Tropics can be a statistical artifact; it should be interpreted more correctly as decadal modulation of interannual IOD events (i.e., asymmetric or skewed occurrence of positive and negative events). Heat budget analysis has revealed that the occurrence of IOD events is governed by variations in the southward Ekman heat transport across 15°S and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow associated with the ENSO. The variations in the southward Ekman heat transport are related to the Mascarene high activities.

Full access
Takeshi Izumo
,
Clémentde Boyer Montégut
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Swadhin K. Behera
,
Sébastien Masson
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall has complex, regionally heterogeneous, interannual variations with huge socioeconomic impacts, but the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. The upwelling along the Somalia and Oman coasts starts in late spring, peaks during the summer monsoon, and strongly cools the sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Arabian Sea. They restrict the westward extent of the Indian Ocean warm pool, which is the main moisture source for the monsoon rainfall. Thus, variations of the Somalia–Oman upwelling can have significant impacts on the moisture transport toward India. Here the authors use both observations and an advanced coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to show that a decrease in upwelling strengthens monsoon rainfall along the west coast of India by increasing the SST along the Somalia–Oman coasts, and thus local evaporation and water vapor transport toward the Indian Western Ghats (mountains). Further observational analysis reveals that such decreases in upwelling are caused by anomalously weak southwesterly winds in late spring over the Arabian Sea that are due to warm SST/increased precipitation anomalies over the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge of the southwestern Indian Ocean (and vice versa for years with strong upwelling/weak west Indian summer monsoon rainfall). The latter SST/precipitation anomalies are often related to El Niño conditions and the strength of the Indonesian–Australian monsoon during the previous winter. This sheds new light on the ability to forecast the poorly predicted Indian monsoon rainfall on a regional scale, helped by a proper ocean observing/forecasting system in the western tropical Indian Ocean.

Full access
Swadhin K. Behera
,
Jing Jia Luo
,
Sebastien Masson
,
Suryachandra A. Rao
,
Hirofumi Sakuma
, and
Toshio Yamagata

Abstract

An atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier version 1 (SINTEX-F1) model is used to understand the intrinsic variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). In addition to a globally coupled control experiment, a Pacific decoupled noENSO experiment has been conducted. In the latter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is suppressed by decoupling the tropical Pacific Ocean from the atmosphere. The ocean–atmosphere conditions related to the IOD are realistically simulated by both experiments including the characteristic east–west dipole in SST anomalies. This demonstrates that the dipole mode in the Indian Ocean is mainly determined by intrinsic processes within the basin. In the EOF analysis of SST anomalies from the noENSO experiment, the IOD takes the dominant seat instead of the basinwide monopole mode. Even the coupled feedback among anomalies of upper-ocean heat content, SST, wind, and Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean is reproduced.

As in the observation, IOD peaks in boreal fall for both model experiments. In the absence of ENSO variability the interannual IOD variability is dominantly biennial. The ENSO variability is found to affect the periodicity, strength, and formation processes of the IOD in years of co-occurrences. The amplitudes of SST anomalies in the western pole of co-occurring IODs are aided by dynamical and thermodynamical modifications related to the ENSO-induced wind variability. Anomalous latent heat flux and vertical heat convergence associated with the modified Walker circulation contribute to the alteration of western anomalies. It is found that 42% of IOD events affected by changes in the Walker circulation are related to the tropical Pacific variabilities including ENSO. The formation is delayed until boreal summer for those IODs, which otherwise form in boreal spring as in the noENSO experiment.

Full access
Swen Jullien
,
Sébastien Masson
,
Véra Oerder
,
Guillaume Samson
,
François Colas
, and
Lionel Renault

Abstract

Ocean mesoscale eddies are characterized by rotating-like and meandering currents that imprint the low-level atmosphere. Such a current feedback (CFB) has been shown to induce a sink of energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, and consequently to damp the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), with an apparent regional disparity. In a context of increasing model resolution, the importance of this feedback and its dependence on oceanic and atmospheric model resolution arise. Using a hierarchy of quasi-global coupled models with spatial resolutions varying from 1/4° to 1/12°, the present study shows that the CFB induces a negative wind work at scales ranging from 100 to 1000 km, and a subsequent damping of the mesoscale activity by ~30% on average, independently of the model resolution. Regional variations of this damping range from ~20% in very rich eddying regions to ~40% in poor eddying regions. This regional modulation is associated with a different balance between the sink of energy by eddy wind work and the source of EKE by ocean intrinsic instabilities. The efficiency of the CFB is also shown to be a function of the surface wind magnitude: the larger the wind, the larger the sink of energy. The CFB impact is thus related to both wind and EKE. Its correct representation requires both an ocean model that resolves the mesoscale field adequately and an atmospheric model resolution that matches the ocean effective resolution and allows a realistic representation of wind patterns. These results are crucial for including adequately mesoscale ocean–atmosphere interactions in coupled general circulation models and have strong implications in climate research.

Free access