Abstract

Numerical guidance methods for decision making support of aviation meteorological forecasters are presented. The methods have been developed to enhance the usefulness of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data and local and upstream observations in the production of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs) and trend-type forecasts (TRENDs) for airports. In this paper two newly developed methods are described and it is shown how they are used to derive numerical guidance products for aviation. The first is a combination of statistical and physical postprocessing of NWP model data and in situ observations. This method is used to derive forecasts for all aviation-related meteorological parameters at the airport. The second is a high-resolution wind transformation method, a technique used to derive local wind at airports from grid-box-averaged NWP model winds.

For operational use of the numerical guidance products encoding software is provided for automatic production of an alphanumeric TAF and TREND code. A graphical user interface with an integrated code editor enables the forecaster to modify the suggested automatic codes. For aviation, the most important parameters in the numerical guidance are visibility and cloud-base height. Both have been subjected to a statistical verification analysis, together with their automatically produced codes. The results in terms of skill score are compared to the skill of the forecasters’ TAF and TREND code. The statistical measures suggest that the guidance has the best skill at lead times of +4 h and more. For the short term, mainly trend-type forecasts, the persistence forecast based on recent observations is difficult to beat. Verification has also shown that the wind transformation method, which has been applied to generate 10-m winds at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, reduces the mean error in the (grid box averaged) NWP model wind significantly.

Among the potential benefits of these numerical guidance methods is increasing forecast accuracy. As a result, the related numerical guidance products and encoding software have been integrated in the operational environment for the production of TAFs and TRENDs.

Abstract

A coupled planetary boundary layer (PBL)–vegetation model is used to study the influence of the PBL–vegetation interaction and the ambient CO₂ concentration on surface resistance r _s and regional transpiration λE. Vegetation is described using the big-leaf model in which r _s is modeled by means of a coupled photosynthesis–resistance model. The PBL part is a one-dimensional, first-order closure model. Nonlocal turbulent transport is accounted for by means of a countergradient correction. The PBL model also describes CO₂ fluxes and concentrations, which are driven by photosynthesis of the canopy. A number of sensitivity analyses are presented in which the behavior of r _s and λE at an atmospheric CO₂ concentration representative for the present-day situation is compared to their behavior under an approximately doubled CO₂ concentration. The results reveal a positive atmospheric feedback on r _s , by which an initial increase of r _s , due to changes in ambient CO₂ concentration, is magnified. The stomatal humidity response appears to be the key factor here: if r _s increases, the air within the canopy dries out, which causes the stomata to close further. The PBL enlarges the effect of this positive feedback loop. The model suggests plants with a C₄ photosynthetic pathway to be less sensitive to the humidity-mediated positive feedback than plants with a C₃ photosynthetic pathway. Another important aspect of biosphere–atmosphere interaction is the negative feedback of the PBL on transpiration. It is concluded that the interaction between PBL and the vegetation has to be taken into account if transpiration and its changes, due to changing surface characteristics, are to be predicted at the regional scale. This conclusion applies to modeling studies as well as to extrapolation of results from plant physiological research or from small-scale field plots to the regional scale.

Abstract

Several authors have determined the sensitivity of transpiration to different environmental parameters using the Penman-Monteith equation. In their studies the interaction between transpiration and, for example, the humidity of the air is ignored: the feedback with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is not accounted for. Furthermore, surface-layer (SL) feedback (e.g., stability effects in the surface layer) is often neglected.

In our study, both PBL feedback and SL feedback are accounted for by coupling the big-leaf model to a detailed model for the PBL. This study provides an analysis of the sensitivity of transpiration to net radiation calculated after an albedo change, aerodynamic resistance calculated after a change in the aerodynamic roughness, and surface resistance. It is shown that PBL feedback affects the sensitivity of transpiration to the tested variables significantly. The sensitivity of transpiration to surface resistance and to aerodynamic resistance, or aerodynamic roughness, is decreased by the PBL feedback. In contrast, PBL feedback enlarges the sensitivity of transpiration to the net radiation, or albedo, and appears to be highly dependent on the specific conditions, especially on the aerodynamic roughness of the vegetation. It is recommended that future sensitivity studies for prognostic use account for PBL feedback.

Abstract

Following the convective triggering potential (CTP)–humidity index (HI_low) framework by Findell and Eltahir, the sensitivity of atmospheric convection to soil moisture conditions is studied for India. Using the same slab model as Findell and Eltahir, atmospheric conditions in which the land surface state affects convective precipitation are determined. For India, CTP–HI_low thresholds for land surface–atmosphere feedbacks are shown to be slightly different than for the United States.

Using atmospheric sounding data from 1975 to 2009, the seasonal and spatial variations in feedback strength have been assessed. The patterns of feedback strengths thus obtained have been analyzed in relation to the monsoon timing. During the monsoon season, atmospheric conditions where soil moisture positively influences precipitation are present about 25% of the time. During onset and retreat of the monsoon, the south and east of India show more potential for feedbacks than the north. These feedbacks suggest that large-scale irrigation in the south and east may increase local precipitation.

To test this, precipitation data (from 1960 to 2004) for the period about three weeks just before the monsoon onset date have been studied. A positive trend in the precipitation just before the monsoon onset is found for irrigated stations. It is shown that for irrigated stations, the trend in the precipitation just before the monsoon onset is positive for the period 1960–2004. For nonirrigated stations, there is no such upward trend in this period. The precipitation trend for irrigated areas might be due to a positive trend in the extent of irrigated areas, with land–atmosphere feedbacks inducing increased precipitation.

Abstract

High resolution, continuous current measurements made in the Korea/Tsushima Strait between May 1999 and March 2000 are used to examine current variations having time periods longer than 2 days. Twelve bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers provide velocity profiles along two sections: one section at the strait entrance southwest of Tsushima Island and the second section at the strait exit northeast of Tsushima Island. Additional measurements are provided by single moorings located between Korea and Tsushima Island and just north of Cheju Island in Cheju Strait. The two sections contain markedly different mean flow regimes. A high velocity current core exists at the southwestern section along the western slope of the strait for the entire recording period. The flow directly downstream of Tsushima Island contains large variability, and the flow is disrupted to such an extent by the island that a countercurrent commonly exists in the lee of the island. The northeastern section is marked by strong spatial variability and a large seasonal signal but in the mean consists of two localized intense flows concentrated near the Korea and Japan coasts. Peak nontidal currents exceed 70 cm s⁻¹ while total currents exceed 120 cm s⁻¹. The estimated mean transport calculated from the southwest line is 2.7 Sv (Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). EOF analyses indicate total transport variations in summer are due mainly to transport variations near the Korea coast. In winter, contributions to total transport variations are more uniformly distributed across the strait.

Abstract

As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal “climate assessment consortium” to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit–cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.

Abstract

This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed K _dp and Z _DR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using Z _DR and K _dp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals.

The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc., established the Hydrologic Measurement Facility to transform watershed-scale hydrologic research by facilitating access to advanced instrumentation and expertise that would not otherwise be available to individual investigators. We outline a committee-based process that determined which suites of instrumentation best fit the needs of the hydrological science community and a proposed mechanism for the governance and distribution of these sensors. Here, we also focus on how these proposed suites of instrumentation can be used to address key scientific challenges, including scaling water cycle science in time and space, broadening the scope of individual subdisciplines of water cycle science, and developing mechanistic linkages among these subdisciplines and spatiotemporal scales.

The Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission was recommended by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Earth Science Decadal Survey to measure tropospheric trace gases and aerosols and coastal ocean phytoplankton, water quality, and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit, providing continuous observations within the field of view. To fulfill the mandate and address the challenge put forth by the NRC, two GEO-CAPE Science Working Groups (SWGs), representing the atmospheric composition and ocean color disciplines, have developed realistic science objectives using input drawn from several community workshops. The GEO-CAPE mission will take advantage of this revolutionary advance in temporal frequency for both of these disciplines. Multiple observations per day are required to explore the physical, chemical, and dynamical processes that determine tropospheric composition and air quality over spatial scales ranging from urban to continental, and over temporal scales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. Likewise, high-frequency satellite observations are critical to studying and quantifying biological, chemical, and physical processes within the coastal ocean. These observations are to be achieved from a vantage point near 95°–100°W, providing a complete view of North America as well as the adjacent oceans. The SWGs have also endorsed the concept of phased implementation using commercial satellites to reduce mission risk and cost. GEO-CAPE will join the global constellation of geostationary atmospheric chemistry and coastal ocean color sensors planned to be in orbit in the 2020 time frame.