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Akiyo Yatagai, Kenji Kamiguchi, Osamu Arakawa, Atsushi Hamada, Natsuko Yasutomi, and Akio Kitoh

A daily gridded precipitation dataset covering a period of more than 57 yr was created by collecting and analyzing rain gauge observation data across Asia through the activities of the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) project. APHRODITE's daily gridded precipitation is presently the only long-term, continental-scale, high-resolution daily product. The product is based on data collected at 5,000–12,000 stations, which represent 2.3–4.5 times the data made available through the Global Telecommunication System network and is used for most daily gridded precipitation products. Hence, the APHRODITE project has substantially improved the depiction of the areal distribution and variability of precipitation around the Himalayas, Southeast Asia, and mountainous regions of the Middle East. The APHRODITE project now contributes to studies such as the determination of Asian monsoon precipitation change, evaluation of water resources, verification of high-resolution model simulations and satellite precipitation estimates, and improvement of precipitation forecasts. The APHRODITE project carries out outreach activities with Asian countries, and communicates with national institutions and world data centers. We have released open-access APHRO_V1101 datasets for monsoon Asia, the Middle East, and northern Eurasia (at 0.5° × 0.5° and 0.25° × 0.25° resolution) and the APHRO_JP_V1005 dataset for Japan (at 0.05° × 0.05° resolution; see www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/ and http://aphrodite.suiri.tsukuba.ac.jp/). We welcome cooperation and feedback from users.

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Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Song Yang, Akiyo Yatagai, Tadahiro Hayasaka, Yoshihiro Fukushima, and Changming Liu

Abstract

A new gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation has been constructed on a 0.5° latitude–longitude grid over East Asia (5°–60°N, 65°–155°E) for a 26-yr period from 1978 to 2003 using gauge observations at over 2200 stations collected from several individual sources. First, analyzed fields of daily climatology are computed by interpolating station climatology defined as the summation of the first six harmonics of the 365-calendar-day time series of the mean daily values averaged over a 20-yr period from 1978 to 1997. These fields of daily climatology are then adjusted by the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) monthly precipitation climatology to correct the bias caused by orographic effects. Gridded fields of the ratio of daily precipitation to the daily climatology are created by interpolating the corresponding station values using the optimal interpolation method. Analyses of total daily precipitation are finally calculated by multiplying the daily climatology by the daily ratio.

Cross-validation tests indicated that this gauge-based analysis has high quantitative quality with a negligible bias and a correlation coefficient of ∼0.6 for comparisons between withdrawn station data and the analysis at a 0.05° latitude–longitude grid box. The quality of the analysis increases with the gauge network density. The mean distribution and annual cycle of this new gauge analysis present similar patterns but with more detailed structures and slightly larger magnitude compared to other published monthly gauge analyses over the region.

The East Asia gauge analysis is applied to verify the performance of five satellite-based precipitation estimates. This examination reveals the regionally and seasonally dependent performance of the satellite products with the best statistics observed for relatively wet regions. Further improvements of the daily gauge analysis are underway to increase the gauge network density and to refine the algorithm to better deal with the orographic effects especially over South and Southeast Asia.

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Akiyo Yatagai, T. N. Krishnamurti, Vinay Kumar, A. K. Mishra, and Anu Simon

Abstract

A multimodel superensemble developed by the Florida State University combines multiple model forecasts based on their past performance (training phase) to make a consensus forecast. Because observed precipitation reflects local characteristics such as orography, quantitative high-resolution precipitation products are useful for downscaling coarse model outputs. The Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 products are used for downscaling and as training data in the superensemble training phase. Seven years (1998–2004) of monthly precipitation (June–August) over the Asian monsoon region (0°–50°N, 60°–150°E) and results of four coupled climate models were used. TRMM 3B43 was adjusted by APHRODITE (m-TRMM). For seasonal climate forecasts, a synthetic superensemble technique was used. A cross-validation technique was adopted, in which the year to be forecast was excluded from the calculations for obtaining the regression coefficients. The principal results are as follows: 1) Seasonal forecasts of Asian monsoon precipitation were considerably improved by use of APHRODITE rain gauge–based data or the m-TRMM product. These forecasts are much superior to those from the best model of the suite and ensemble mean. 2) Use of a statistical downscaling and synthetic superensemble method for multimodel forecasts of seasonal climate significantly improved precipitation prediction at higher resolution. This is confirmed by cross-evaluation of superensemble with using other observation data than the data used in the training phase. 3) Availability of a dense rain gauge network–based analysis was essential for the success of this work.

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