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  • Author or Editor: Ali Harzallah x
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Ali Harzallah

Abstract

A consistent interpolation technique, applicable to data series, is presented. Demonstrative examples are given where consistency is defined as conservation of mean or of second-order moment; the interpolants are linear or spline functions. The choice of interpolants can be extended to other desired definitions. The method is based on an iterating technique that forces the interpolant to satisfy the consistency constraint. The method works for an evenly spaced series and does not suppose periodicity. The method is applied to interpolate monthly series of sea surface temperature from yearly sampled values; it is shown that the method provides satisfactory results.

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Ali Harzallah
and
Robert Sadourny

Abstract

The variability of atmospheric flow is analyzed by separating it into an internal part due to atmospheric dynamics only and an external (or forced) part due to the variability of sea surface temperature forcing. The two modes of variability are identified by performing an ensemble of seven independent long-term simulations of the atmospheric response to observed SST (1970–1988) with the LMD atmospheric general circulation model. The forced variability is defined from the analysis of the ensemble mean and the internal variability from the analysis of deviations from the ensemble mean. Emphasis is put on interannual variability of sea level pressure and 5OO-hPa geopotential height for the Northern Hemisphere winter. In view of the large systematic errors related to the relatively small number of realizations, unbiased variance estimators have been developed. Although statistical significance is not reached in some extratropical regions, large significant extratropical responses are found at the North Pacific-Alaska sector for SLP and over western Canada and the Aleutians for 5OO-hPa geopotential height. The influence of SST variations on internal variability is also examined by using a 7-year simulation using the climatological SST seasonal cycle. It is found that interannual SST changes strongly influence the geographical distribution of internal variability; in particular, it tends to increase it over oceans. Patterns of internal and external variability of the 5OO-hPa geopotential height are further examined by using EOF decompositions showing that the model realistically simulates the leading observed variability modes. The geographical structure of internal variability patterns is found to be similar to that of total variability, although similar modes tend to evolve rather differently in time. The zonally symmetric seesaw dominates the internal variability for both observed and climatologically prescribed SST. The Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns, on the other hand, are the dominant modes associated with patterns of SST variability: the latter is related to Atlantic anomalies, while the former responds to both El Niño events and extratropical forcing.

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Serge Janicot
,
Ali Harzallah
,
Bernard Fontaine
, and
Vincent Moron

Abstract

The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric GCM is used to investigate relationships between West African monsoon dynamics and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific for the period 1970–88. Positive SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mainly associated with a larger east–west divergent circulation over the tropical Atlantic, are found to coincide with negative rainfall anomalies over West Africa. This is the case for the composite ENSO warm episodes of 1972, 1976, 1982, and 1983. By contrast, positive SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic are accompanied by a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone along with negative rainfall anomalies in the Sahel and positive rainfall anomalies in the Guinean region. This was the case in 1987. The ENSO warm event during this year had apparently no significant impact on West African monsoon dynamics. A zonal atmospheric coupling associated with differences of SST anomalies between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic is evident in the period 1970–88. Positive (negative) phases of this coupling could enhance the impact of ENSO warm (cold) events on West African monsoon dynamics.

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