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Alvaro de la Cámara
,
Thomas Birner
, and
John R. Albers

Abstract

A combination of 240 years of output from a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model and a twentieth-century reanalysis product is used to investigate to what extent sudden stratospheric warmings are preceded by anomalous tropospheric wave activity. To this end we study the fate of lower tropospheric wave events (LTWEs) and their interaction with the stratospheric mean flow. These LTWEs are contrasted with sudden stratospheric deceleration events (SSDs), which are similar to sudden stratospheric warmings but place more emphasis on the explosive dynamical nature of such events. Reanalysis and model output provide very similar statistics: Around one-third of the identified SSDs are preceded by wave events in the lower troposphere, while two-thirds of the SSDs are not preceded by a tropospheric wave event. In addition, only 20% of all anomalous tropospheric wave events are followed by an SSD in the stratosphere. This constitutes statistically robust evidence that the anomalous amplification of wave activity in the stratosphere that drives SSDs is not necessarily due to an anomalous amplification of the waves in the source region (i.e., the lower troposphere). The results suggest that the dynamics in the lowermost stratosphere and the vortex geometry are essential, and should be carefully analyzed in the search for precursors of SSDs.

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Alvaro de la Cámara
,
Ana M. Mancho
,
Kayo Ide
,
Encarna Serrano
, and
Carlos R. Mechoso

Abstract

Transport in the lower stratosphere over Antarctica has been studied in the past by means of several approaches, such as contour dynamics or Lyapunov exponents. This paper examines the problem by means of a new Lagrangian descriptor, which is referred to as the function M. The focus is on the southern spring of 2005, which allows for a comparison with previous analyses based on Lyapunov exponents. With the methodology based on the function M, a much sharper depiction of key Lagrangian features is achieved and routes of large-scale horizontal transport across the vortex edge are captured. These results highlight the importance of lobe dynamics as a transport mechanism across the Antarctic polar vortex.

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Alvaro de la Cámara
,
Carlos R. Mechoso
,
Ana M. Mancho
,
Encarna Serrano
, and
Kayo Ide

Abstract

The trajectories in the lower stratosphere of isopycnic balloons released from Antarctica by Vorcore and Concordiasi field campaigns during the southern springs of 2005 and 2010 showed events of latitudinal transport inside the stratospheric polar vortex, both away from and toward the poleward flank of the polar-night jet. The present paper applies trajectory-based diagnostic techniques to examine mechanisms at work during such events. Reverse domain-filling calculations of potential vorticity (PV) fields from the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset during the events show irreversible filamentation of the PV fields in the inner side of the polar-night jet, which is a signature of planetary (Rossby) wave breaking. Balloon motions during the events are fairly consistent with the PV filaments. Events of both large (~15° of arc length) and small (~5° of arc length) balloon displacements from the vortex edge are associated, respectively, with deep and shallow penetration into the core of the elongated PV contours. Additionally, the Lagrangian descriptor M is applied to study the configuration of Lagrangian structures during the events. Breaking Rossby waves inside the vortex lead to the presence of hyperbolic points. The geometric configuration of the invariant manifolds associated with the hyperbolic trajectories helps to understand the apparent chaotic behavior of balloons' motions and to identify and analyze balloon transport events not captured by reverse domain-filling calculations.

The Antarctic polar vortex edge is an effective barrier to air parcel crossings. Rossby wave breaking inside the vortex, however, can contribute to tracer mixing inside the vortex and to occasional air crossings of the edge.

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Riwal Plougonven
,
Valérian Jewtoukoff
,
Alvaro de la Cámara
,
François Lott
, and
Albert Hertzog

Abstract

The relationship between gravity wave momentum fluxes and local wind speed is investigated for oceanic regions at high southern latitudes during austral spring. The motivation is to better describe the gravity wave field by identifying a simple relationship between gravity waves and the large-scale flow. The tools used to describe the gravity waves are probability density functions of the gravity wave momentum fluxes. Three independent datasets covering high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere springtime are analyzed: simulations with a mesoscale model, analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and observations from superpressure balloons of the Concordiasi campaign in 2010. A remarkably robust relation is found, with stronger momentum fluxes much more likely in regions of strong winds. The tails of the probability density functions are well described as lognormal. The median momentum flux increases linearly with background wind speed: for winds stronger than 50 m s−1, the median gravity wave momentum fluxes are about 4 times larger than for winds weaker than 10 m s−1. From model output, this relation is found to be relevant from the tropopause to the midstratosphere at least. The flux dependence on wind speed shows a somewhat steeper slope at higher altitude. Several different processes contribute to this relation, involving both the distribution of sources and the effects of propagation and filtering. It is argued that the location of tropospheric sources is the main contributor in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere and that lateral propagation into regions of strong winds becomes increasingly important above.

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Alvaro de la Cámara
,
François Lott
,
Valérian Jewtoukoff
,
Riwal Plougonven
, and
Albert Hertzog

Abstract

The austral stratospheric final warming date is often predicted with substantial delay in several climate models. This systematic error is generally attributed to insufficient parameterized gravity wave (GW) drag in the stratosphere around 60°S. A simulation with a general circulation model [Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique zoom model (LMDZ)] with a much less pronounced bias is used to analyze the contribution of the different types of waves to the dynamics of the final warming. For this purpose, the resolved and unresolved wave forcing of the middle atmosphere during the austral spring are examined in LMDZ and reanalysis data, and a good agreement is found between the two datasets. The role of parameterized orographic and nonorographic GWs in LMDZ is further examined, and it is found that orographic and nonorographic GWs contribute evenly to the GW forcing in the stratosphere, unlike in other climate models, where orographic GWs are the main contributor. This result is shown to be in good agreement with GW-resolving operational analysis products. It is demonstrated that the significant contribution of the nonorographic GWs is due to highly intermittent momentum fluxes produced by the source-related parameterizations used in LMDZ, in qualitative agreement with recent observations. This yields sporadic high-amplitude GWs that break in the stratosphere and force the circulation at lower altitudes than more homogeneously distributed nonorographic GW parameterizations do.

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Rolando R. Garcia
,
Anne K. Smith
,
Douglas E. Kinnison
,
Álvaro de la Cámara
, and
Damian J. Murphy

Abstract

The current standard version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulates Southern Hemisphere winter and spring temperatures that are too cold compared with observations. This “cold-pole bias” leads to unrealistically low ozone column amounts in Antarctic spring. Here, the cold-pole problem is addressed by introducing additional mechanical forcing of the circulation via parameterized gravity waves. Insofar as observational guidance is ambiguous regarding the gravity waves that might be important in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, the impact of increasing the forcing by orographic gravity waves was investigated. This reduces the strength of the Antarctic polar vortex in WACCM, bringing it into closer agreement with observations, and accelerates the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the polar stratosphere, which warms the polar cap and improves substantially the simulation of Antarctic temperature. These improvements are achieved without degrading the performance of the model in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere or in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere of either hemisphere. It is shown, finally, that other approaches that enhance gravity wave forcing can also reduce the cold-pole bias such that careful examination of observational evidence and model performance will be required to establish which gravity wave sources are dominant in the real atmosphere. This is especially important because a “downward control” analysis of these results suggests that the improvement of the cold-pole bias itself is not very sensitive to the details of how gravity wave drag is altered.

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Valérian Jewtoukoff
,
Albert Hertzog
,
Riwal Plougonven
,
Alvaro de la Cámara
, and
François Lott

Abstract

The increase of spatial resolution allows the ECMWF operational model to explicitly resolve a significant portion of the atmospheric gravity wave (GW) field, but the realism of the simulated GW field in the ECMWF analyses still needs to be precisely evaluated. Here the authors use data collected during the Concordiasi stratospheric balloon campaign to assess the representation of GWs in the ECMWF analyses over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in spring 2010. The authors first compare the balloonborne GW momentum fluxes with those in ECMWF analyses throughout the campaign and find a correct agreement of the geographical and seasonal patterns. However, the authors also note that ECMWF analyses generally underestimate the balloon fluxes by a factor of 5, which may be essentially due to the spatial truncation of the ECMWF model. Intermittency of wave activity in the analyses and observations are found comparable. These results are confirmed on two case studies dealing with orographic and nonorographic waves, which thus supports that the ECMWF analyses can be used to study the geographical and seasonal distribution of GW momentum fluxes. The authors then used both datasets to provide insights on the missing GW drag at 60°S in general circulation models in the Southern Hemisphere spring. These datasets suggest that a significant part of the missing drag may be associated with nonorographic GWs generated by weather systems above the Southern Ocean.

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Alvaro de la Cámara
,
John R. Albers
,
Thomas Birner
,
Rolando R. Garcia
,
Peter Hitchcock
,
Douglas E. Kinnison
, and
Anne K. Smith

Abstract

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4 (WACCM4), is used to investigate the influence of stratospheric conditions on the development of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). To this end, targeted experiments are performed on selected modeled SSW events. Specifically, the model is reinitialized three weeks before a given SSW, relaxing the surface fluxes, winds, and temperature below 10 km to the corresponding fields from the free-running simulation. Hence, the tropospheric wave evolution is unaltered across the targeted experiments, but the stratosphere itself can evolve freely. The stratospheric zonal-mean state is then altered 21 days prior to the selected SSWs and rerun with an ensemble of different initial conditions. It is found that a given tropospheric evolution concomitant with the development of an SSW does not uniquely determine the occurrence of an event and that the stratospheric conditions are relevant to the subsequent evolution of the stratospheric flow toward an SSW, even for a fixed tropospheric evolution. It is also shown that interpreting the meridional heat flux at 100 hPa as a proxy of the tropospheric injection of wave activity into the stratosphere should be regarded with caution and that stratospheric dynamics critically influence the heat flux at that altitude.

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Judith Berner
,
Ulrich Achatz
,
Lauriane Batté
,
Lisa Bengtsson
,
Alvaro de la Cámara
,
Hannah M. Christensen
,
Matteo Colangeli
,
Danielle R. B. Coleman
,
Daan Crommelin
,
Stamen I. Dolaptchiev
,
Christian L. E. Franzke
,
Petra Friederichs
,
Peter Imkeller
,
Heikki Järvinen
,
Stephan Juricke
,
Vassili Kitsios
,
François Lott
,
Valerio Lucarini
,
Salil Mahajan
,
Timothy N. Palmer
,
Cécile Penland
,
Mirjana Sakradzija
,
Jin-Song von Storch
,
Antje Weisheimer
,
Michael Weniger
,
Paul D. Williams
, and
Jun-Ichi Yano

Abstract

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range, and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to represent model inadequacy better and to improve the quantification of forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical weather prediction, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations not only provides better estimates of uncertainty, but it is also extremely promising for reducing long-standing climate biases and is relevant for determining the climate response to external forcing. This article highlights recent developments from different research groups that show that the stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models 1) gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate and 2) reduces systematic model bias. We make a case that the use of mathematically stringent methods for the derivation of stochastic dynamic equations will lead to substantial improvements in our ability to accurately simulate weather and climate at all scales. Recent work in mathematics, statistical mechanics, and turbulence is reviewed; its relevance for the climate problem is demonstrated; and future research directions are outlined.

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