Antarctica is a challenging region for conducting meteorological research because of its geographic isolation, climate extremes, vastness, and lack of permanent human inhabitants. About 15 observing stations have been in continuous operation since the onset of the modern scientific era in Antarctica during the International Geophysical Year in 1957/58. Identifying and attributing natural- and human-caused climate change signals from the comparatively short Antarctic dataset is confounded by large year-to-year fluctuations of temperature, atmospheric pressure, and snowfall. Yet there is increasing urgency to understand Antarctica's role in the global climate system for a number of reasons, most importantly the potential consequences of ice-mass loss on global sea level rise. Here, we describe recently-created records that allow Antarctic near-surface temperature and snowfall changes to be assessed in all of Antarctica's 24 glacial drainage systems during the past five decades. The new near-surface temperature and snowfall records roughly double the length of previous such datasets, which have complete spatial coverage over the continent. They indicate complex patterns of regional and seasonal climate variability. Of particular note is the occurrence of widespread positive temperature trends during summer since the 1990s, the season when melt occurs. In forthcoming years, careful monitoring of the summer trends will be required to determine whether they are associated with a natural cycle or the start of an anthropogenic warming trend. Key questions are raised during the International Polar Year.

Abstract

The mesoscale cyclone activity observed in the portion of Antarctica that faces the South Pacific Ocean and Weddell Sea area is summarized from a study of 1991. In general, area-normalized results reveal much greater mesoscale cyclonic activity over the Ross Sea/Ross Ice Shelf and southern Marie Byrd Land than on both sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. More than 50% of the observed mesoscale vortices are of the comma cloud type. The average diameter of mesoscale vortices is approximately 200 km near Terra Nova Bay, 270 km near Byrd Glacier, and 280 km near Siple Coast. Near the Antarctic Peninsula, the average diameter is about 370 km over the Bellingshausen Sea and 380 km on the Weddell Sea side. The largest percentage of deep vortices occurs over the Bellingshausen Sea sector (38% of all cases), where convective instability frequently occurs. Over the Ross Sea/Ross Ice Shelf and Weddell Sea sectors the majority of the mesoscale vortices are low cloud features that probably do not exceed the 700-hPa level due to the prevailing lower-atmospheric stability. The areas identified as sources of mesoscale vortices concur with the locations of enhanced katabatic winds.

A synthesis of the available literature leads to some general characteristics of mesoscale cyclone formation and development. Mesoscale cyclogenesis is associated with areas of warm and/or cold air advection, low-level baroclinicity, and cyclonic vorticity resulting from the stretching mechanism. Subsequent intensification depends on the presence of upper-level support. Spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale cyclone formation is often related to the behavior of synoptic-scale cyclone tracks. Mesoscale cyclones can generate precipitation and severe weather conditions and thus present a critical forecasting challenge.

Abstract

Extreme heat is a leading cause of weather-related human mortality. The urban heat island (UHI) can magnify heat exposure in metropolitan areas. This study investigates the ability of a new MODIS-retrieved near-surface air temperature and humidity dataset to depict urban heat patterns over metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, during June–August 2003–13 under clear-sky conditions. A self-organizing mapping (SOM) technique is used to cluster air temperature data into six predominant patterns. The hottest heat patterns from the SOM analysis are compared with the 11-summer median conditions using the urban heat island curve (UHIC). The UHIC shows the relationship between air temperature (and dewpoint temperature) and urban land-use fraction. It is found that during these hottest events 1) the air temperature and dewpoint temperature over the study area increase most during nighttime, by at least 4 K relative to the median conditions; 2) the urban–rural temperature/humidity gradient is decreased as a result of larger temperature and humidity increases over the areas with greater vegetation fraction than over those with greater urban fraction; and 3) heat patterns grow more rapidly leading up to the events, followed by a slower return to normal conditions afterward. This research provides an alternate way to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the UHI, using a satellite remote sensing perspective on air temperature and humidity. The technique has potential to be applied to cities globally and provides a climatological perspective on extreme heat that complements the many case studies of individual events.

Abstract

The Polar fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is employed to examine the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of Antarctic climate for July 1996–June 1999, which is shown to be stronger than for the mean modulation from 1979 to 1999 and appears to be largely due to an eastward shift and enhancement of convection in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study provides a more comprehensive assessment than can be achieved with observational datasets by using a regional atmospheric model adapted for high-latitude applications (Polar MM5). The most pronounced ENSO response is observed over the Ross Ice Shelf–Marie Byrd Land and over the Weddell Sea–Ronne/Filchner Ice Shelf. In addition to having the largest climate variability associated with ENSO, these two regions exhibit anomalies of opposite sign throughout the study period, which supports and extends similar findings by other investigators. The dipole structure is observed in surface temperature, meridional winds, cloud fraction, and precipitation. The ENSO-related variability is primarily controlled by the large-scale circulation anomalies surrounding the continent, which are consistent throughout the troposphere. When comparing the El Niño/La Niña phases of this late 1990s ENSO cycle, the circulation anomalies are nearly mirror images over the entire Antarctic, indicating their significant modulation by ENSO. Large temperature anomalies, especially in autumn, are prominent over the major ice shelves. This is most likely due to their relatively low elevation with respect to the continental interior making them more sensitive to shifts in synoptic forcing offshore of Antarctica, especially during months with considerable open water. The Polar MM5 simulations are in broad agreement with observational data, and the simulated precipitation closely follows the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Tropical Ocean–Global Atmosphere precipitation trends over the study period. The collective findings of this work suggest the Polar MM5 is capturing ENSO-related atmospheric variability with good skill and may be a useful tool for future climate studies.

Abstract

This study evaluates the temporal variability of the Antarctic surface mass balance, approximated as precipitation minus evaporation (P − E), and Southern Ocean precipitation in five global reanalyses during 1989–2009. The datasets consist of the NCEP/U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project 2 reanalysis (NCEP-2), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Reanalyses are known to be prone to spurious trends and inhomogeneities caused by changes in the observing system, especially in the data-sparse high southern latitudes. The period of study has seen a dramatic increase in the amount of satellite observations used for data assimilation.

The large positive and statistically significant trends in mean Antarctic P − E and mean Southern Ocean precipitation in NCEP-2, JRA-25, and MERRA are found to be largely spurious. The origin of these artifacts varies between reanalyses. Notably, a precipitation jump in MERRA in the late 1990s coincides with the start of the assimilation of radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). ERA-Interim and CFSR do not exhibit any significant trends. However, the potential impact of the assimilation of rain-affected radiances in ERA-Interim and inhomogeneities in CFSR pressure fields over Antarctica cast some doubt on the reliability of these two datasets.

The authors conclude that ERA-Interim likely offers the most realistic depiction of precipitation changes in high southern latitudes during 1989–2009. The range of the trends in Antarctic P − E among the reanalyses is equivalent to 1 mm of sea level over 21 years, which highlights the improvements still needed in reanalysis simulations to better assess the contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Finally, this work argues for continuing cautious use of reanalysis datasets for climate change assessment.

Abstract

In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model optimized for use over ice sheets. The modeling system consists of several domains ranging in horizontal resolution from 90 km covering a large part of the Southern Hemisphere to 3.3 km over the complex terrain surrounding McMurdo, the hub of U.S. operations. The performance of the 30-km AMPS domain versus observations from manned and automatic weather stations is statistically evaluated for a 2-yr period from September 2001 through August 2003. The simulated 12–36-h surface pressure and near-surface temperature at most sites have correlations of r > 0.95 and r > 0.75, respectively, and small biases. Surface wind speeds reflect the complex topography and generally have correlations between 0.5 and 0.6, and positive biases of 1–2 m s⁻¹. In the free atmosphere, r > 0.95 (geopotential height), r > 0.9 (temperature), and r > 0.8 (wind speed) at most sites. Over the annual cycle, there is little interseasonal variation in skill. Over the length of the forecast, a gradual decrease in skill is observed from hours 0–72. One exception is the surface pressure, which improves slightly in the first few hours, due in part to the model adjusting from surface pressure biases that are caused by the initialization technique over the high, cold terrain.

The impact of the higher-resolution model domains over the McMurdo region is also evaluated. It is shown that the 3.3-km domain is more sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the winds than the 10-km domain, which represents an overall improvement in forecast skill, especially on the windward side of the island where the Williams Field and Pegasus runways are situated, and in the lee of Ross Island, an important area of mesoscale cyclogenesis (although the correlation coefficients in these regions are still relatively low).

Abstract

There is growing use of limited-area models (LAMs) for high-resolution (<10 km) applications, for which consistent mapping of input terrestrial and meteorological datasets is critical for accurate simulations. The geographic coordinate systems of most input datasets are based on spheroid-shaped (i.e., elliptical) Earth models, while LAMs generally assume a perfectly sphere-shaped Earth. This distinction is often neglected during preprocessing, when input data are remapped to LAM domains, leading to geolocation discrepancies that can exceed 20 km at midlatitudes.

A variety of terrestrial (topography and land use) input dataset configurations is employed to explore the impact of Earth model assumptions on a series of 1-km LAM simulations over Colorado. For the same terrestrial datasets, the ~20-km geolocation discrepancy between spheroidal-versus-spherical Earth models over the domain leads to simulated differences in near-surface and midtropospheric air temperature, humidity, and wind speed that are larger and more widespread than those due to using different topography and land use datasets altogether but not changing the Earth model. Simulated differences are caused by the shift of static fields with respect to boundary conditions, and altered Coriolis forcing and topographic gradients.

The sensitivity of high-resolution LAM simulations to Earth model assumptions emphasizes the importance for users to ensure terrestrial and meteorological input data are consistently mapped during preprocessing (i.e., datasets share a common geographic coordinate system before remapping to the LAM domain). Concurrently, the modeling community should update preprocessing systems to make sure input data are correctly mapped for all global and limited-area simulation domains.

Abstract

In this study, the GPS radio occultation (RO) data from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C (SAC-C) missions are assimilated. An updated version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4DVAR) is used to assess the impact of the GPS RO data on analyses and short-range forecasts over the Antarctic. The study was performed during the period of intense cyclonic activity in the Ross Sea, 9–19 December 2001. On average 66 GPS RO soundings were assimilated daily. For the assimilation over a single 12-h period, the impact of GPS RO data was only marginally positive or near neutral, and it varied markedly from one 12-h period to another. The large case-to-case variation was attributed to the low number of GPS RO soundings and a strong dependency of forecast impact on the location of the soundings relative to the rapidly developing cyclone. Despite the moderate general impact, noticeable reduction of temperature error in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was found, which demonstrates the value of GPS RO data in better characterizing the tropopause. Significant error reduction was also noted in geopotential height and wind fields in the stratosphere. Those improvements indicate that early detection of the upper-level precursors for storm development is a potential benefit of GPS RO data. When the assimilation period was extended to 48 h, a considerable positive impact of GPS RO data was found. All parameters that were investigated (i.e., temperature, pressure, and specific humidity) showed the positive impact throughout the entire model atmosphere for forecasts extending up to 5 days. The impact increased in proportion to the length of the assimilation period. Although the differences in the analyses as a result of GPS RO assimilation were relatively small initially, the subtle change and subsequent nonlinear growth led to noticeable forecast improvements at longer ranges. Consequently, the positive impact of GPS RO data was more evident in longer-range (e.g., greater than 2 days) forecasts. A correlation coefficient is introduced to quantify the linear relationship between the analysis errors without GPS RO assimilation and the analysis increments induced by GPS RO assimilation. This measure shows that the growth of GPS RO–induced modifications over time is related to the prominent error reduction observed in GPS RO experiments. The measure may also be useful for understanding how cycling analysis accumulates the positive impact of GPS RO data for an extended period of assimilation.

Abstract

Foehn winds resulting from topographic modification of airflow in the lee of mountain barriers are frequently experienced in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Strong foehn winds in the MDVs cause dramatic warming at onset and have significant effects on landscape forming processes; however, no detailed scientific investigation of foehn in the MDVs has been conducted. As a result, they are often misinterpreted as adiabatically warmed katabatic winds draining from the polar plateau. Herein observations from surface weather stations and numerical model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during foehn events in the MDVs are presented. Results show that foehn winds in the MDVs are caused by topographic modification of south-southwesterly airflow, which is channeled into the valleys from higher levels. Modeling of a winter foehn event identifies mountain wave activity similar to that associated with midlatitude foehn winds. These events are found to be caused by strong pressure gradients over the mountain ranges of the MDVs related to synoptic-scale cyclones positioned off the coast of Marie Byrd Land. Analysis of meteorological records for 2006 and 2007 finds an increase of 10% in the frequency of foehn events in 2007 compared to 2006, which corresponds to stronger pressure gradients in the Ross Sea region. It is postulated that the intra- and interannual frequency and intensity of foehn events in the MDVs may therefore vary in response to the position and frequency of cyclones in the Ross Sea region.

Abstract

This study documents the global distribution and characteristics of diurnally varying low-level jets (LLJs), including their horizontal, vertical, and temporal structure, with a special emphasis on highlighting the underlying commonalities and unique qualities of the various nocturnal jets. Two tools are developed to accomplish this goal. The first is a 21-yr global reanalysis performed with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) using a horizontal grid spacing of 40 km. A unique characteristic of the reanalysis is the availability of hourly three-dimensional output, which permits the full diurnal cycle to be analyzed. Furthermore, the horizontal grid spacing of 40 km better resolves many physiographic features that host LLJs than other widely used global reanalyses. This makes possible a detailed examination of the systematic onset and cessation of the jets, including time–height representations of the diurnal cycle. The second tool is an index of nocturnal LLJ (NLLJ) activity based upon the vertical structure of the wind’s temporal variation, where the temporal variation is defined in local time. The first available objectively constructed global maps of recurring NLLJs are created from this index, where the various NLLJs can be simultaneously viewed at or near their peak time. These maps not only highlight all of the locations where NLLJs are known to recur, but they also reveal a number of new jets.

The authors examine the basic mechanisms that give rise to the NLLJs identified in four disparate locations, each having a profound influence on the regional climate. The first, the extensively studied Great Plains NLLJ, is used to confirm the veracity of the global analysis and the index of NLLJ activity. It also provides context for three of the many newly identified NLLJs: 1) Tarim Pendi in northwest China; 2) Ethiopia in eastern Africa; and 3) Namibia–Angola in southwest Africa. Jets in these four regions illustrate the variety of physiographic and thermal forcing mechanisms that can produce NLLJs.