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- Author or Editor: Anne Douglass x
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Abstract
It is shown that the gradient of satellite-derived radiance is proportional to a certain vertical integral of the geostrophic wind. The radiance gradient is shown to be useful in locating the upper tropospheric jet maxima in middle latitudes; the major uncertainty results from lack of specific knowledge of the lower stratospheric winds above the area in question. At high latitudes, the radiance gradient delineates regions of stratospheric jet maxima.
Abstract
It is shown that the gradient of satellite-derived radiance is proportional to a certain vertical integral of the geostrophic wind. The radiance gradient is shown to be useful in locating the upper tropospheric jet maxima in middle latitudes; the major uncertainty results from lack of specific knowledge of the lower stratospheric winds above the area in question. At high latitudes, the radiance gradient delineates regions of stratospheric jet maxima.
Abstract
The NASA/Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model is driven by winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system. Synoptic- and planetary-scale patterns, apparent in satellite observations of trace constituents, are successfully reproduced for seasonal integrations. As model integrations proceed, however, the quality of simulations decreases, and systematic differences between calculation and measurement appear. The differences are explained by examining the zonal-mean residual circulation. The vertical residual velocity w̄* is calculated two ways: (i) from the diabatic heating rates and temperature tendency and (ii) from the Eulerian vertical velocity and the horizontal eddy heat flux convergence. The results from these calculations differ substantially. Periodic insertion of observational data during the assimilation process continually shocks the general circulation model and produces these differences, which leads to an overestimate of the mean vertical heat and constituent transport. Such differences are expected to be general to all data assimilation products. This interpretation is corroborated by two-dimensional (2D) model calculations. When w̄* is calculated from (ii), the 2D ozone evolution is unrealistic and qualitatively similar to the 3D model simulation. The 2D ozone evolution is reasonable when w̄* is calculated from (i).
Abstract
The NASA/Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model is driven by winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system. Synoptic- and planetary-scale patterns, apparent in satellite observations of trace constituents, are successfully reproduced for seasonal integrations. As model integrations proceed, however, the quality of simulations decreases, and systematic differences between calculation and measurement appear. The differences are explained by examining the zonal-mean residual circulation. The vertical residual velocity w̄* is calculated two ways: (i) from the diabatic heating rates and temperature tendency and (ii) from the Eulerian vertical velocity and the horizontal eddy heat flux convergence. The results from these calculations differ substantially. Periodic insertion of observational data during the assimilation process continually shocks the general circulation model and produces these differences, which leads to an overestimate of the mean vertical heat and constituent transport. Such differences are expected to be general to all data assimilation products. This interpretation is corroborated by two-dimensional (2D) model calculations. When w̄* is calculated from (ii), the 2D ozone evolution is unrealistic and qualitatively similar to the 3D model simulation. The 2D ozone evolution is reasonable when w̄* is calculated from (i).
Abstract
Ozone simulations are performed in an attempt to simulate laminar events with the frequency observed in balloon ozone sondes. The winds are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS); the importance of horizontal and vertical resolution to production of lamina are investigated. A simulation with a high horizontal reolution (grid spacing 1° latitude by 1.25° longitude) and high vertical resolution (∼300 m grid spacing) isentropic model produces lamination frequencies close to the balloon sonde climatology near the polar vortex edge but exhibits too much lamination in the subtropics. This indicates that the GEOS DAS winds contain the information to produce laminar events, although such small-scale features are not manifest in the more commonly used 2° latitude by 2.5° longitude transport model, which uses the hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate. The zonal average ozone tendencies due to horizontal mixing in the lamina-producing models are similar to the tendencies in coarser resolution models that show no lamination, suggesting that it is not necessary to resolve laminar events to maintain a realistic ozone budget. The comparison of the modeled lamination frequency with the balloon sonde climatology indicates that the model horizontal mixing at the vortex edge is accurate but in the subtropics the mixing is excessive.
Abstract
Ozone simulations are performed in an attempt to simulate laminar events with the frequency observed in balloon ozone sondes. The winds are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS); the importance of horizontal and vertical resolution to production of lamina are investigated. A simulation with a high horizontal reolution (grid spacing 1° latitude by 1.25° longitude) and high vertical resolution (∼300 m grid spacing) isentropic model produces lamination frequencies close to the balloon sonde climatology near the polar vortex edge but exhibits too much lamination in the subtropics. This indicates that the GEOS DAS winds contain the information to produce laminar events, although such small-scale features are not manifest in the more commonly used 2° latitude by 2.5° longitude transport model, which uses the hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate. The zonal average ozone tendencies due to horizontal mixing in the lamina-producing models are similar to the tendencies in coarser resolution models that show no lamination, suggesting that it is not necessary to resolve laminar events to maintain a realistic ozone budget. The comparison of the modeled lamination frequency with the balloon sonde climatology indicates that the model horizontal mixing at the vortex edge is accurate but in the subtropics the mixing is excessive.
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone is affected by external factors such as chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), volcanoes, and the 11-yr solar cycle variation of ultraviolet radiation. Dynamical variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation and other factors also contribute to stratospheric ozone variability. A research focus during the past two decades has been to quantify the downward trend in ozone due to the increase in industrially produced CFCs. During the coming decades research will focus on detection and attribution of the expected recovery of ozone as the CFCs are slowly removed from the atmosphere. A chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to simulate stratospheric composition for the past 30 yr and the next 20 yr using 50 yr of winds and temperatures from a general circulation model (GCM). The simulation includes the solar cycle in ultraviolet radiation, a representation of aerosol surface areas based on observations including volcanic perturbations from El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, and time-dependent mixing ratio boundary conditions for CFCs, halons, and other source gases such as N2O and CH4. A second CTM simulation was carried out for identical solar flux and boundary conditions but with constant “background” aerosol conditions. The GCM integration included an online ozonelike tracer with specified production and loss that was used to evaluate the effects of interannual variability in dynamics. Statistical time series analysis was applied to both observed and simulated ozone to examine the capability of the analyses for the determination of trends in ozone due to CFCs and to separate these trends from the solar cycle and volcanic effects in the atmosphere. The results point out several difficulties associated with the interpretation of time series analyses of atmospheric ozone data. In particular, it is shown that lengthening the dataset reduces the uncertainty in derived trend due to interannual dynamic variability. It is further shown that interannual variability can make it difficult to accurately assess the impact of a volcanic eruption, such as Pinatubo, on ozone. Such uncertainties make it difficult to obtain an early proof of ozone recovery in response to decreasing chlorine.
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone is affected by external factors such as chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), volcanoes, and the 11-yr solar cycle variation of ultraviolet radiation. Dynamical variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation and other factors also contribute to stratospheric ozone variability. A research focus during the past two decades has been to quantify the downward trend in ozone due to the increase in industrially produced CFCs. During the coming decades research will focus on detection and attribution of the expected recovery of ozone as the CFCs are slowly removed from the atmosphere. A chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to simulate stratospheric composition for the past 30 yr and the next 20 yr using 50 yr of winds and temperatures from a general circulation model (GCM). The simulation includes the solar cycle in ultraviolet radiation, a representation of aerosol surface areas based on observations including volcanic perturbations from El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, and time-dependent mixing ratio boundary conditions for CFCs, halons, and other source gases such as N2O and CH4. A second CTM simulation was carried out for identical solar flux and boundary conditions but with constant “background” aerosol conditions. The GCM integration included an online ozonelike tracer with specified production and loss that was used to evaluate the effects of interannual variability in dynamics. Statistical time series analysis was applied to both observed and simulated ozone to examine the capability of the analyses for the determination of trends in ozone due to CFCs and to separate these trends from the solar cycle and volcanic effects in the atmosphere. The results point out several difficulties associated with the interpretation of time series analyses of atmospheric ozone data. In particular, it is shown that lengthening the dataset reduces the uncertainty in derived trend due to interannual dynamic variability. It is further shown that interannual variability can make it difficult to accurately assess the impact of a volcanic eruption, such as Pinatubo, on ozone. Such uncertainties make it difficult to obtain an early proof of ozone recovery in response to decreasing chlorine.
Abstract
The application of van Leer's scheme, a monotonic, upstream-biased differencing scheme, to three-dimensional constituent transport calculations is shown. The major disadvantage of the scheme is shown to be a self-limiting diffusion. A major advantage of the scheme is shown to be its ability to maintain constituent correlations. The scheme is adapted for a spherical coordinate system with a hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate in the vertical. Special consideration is given to cross-polar flow. The vertical wind calculation is shown to be extremely sensitive to the method of calculating the divergence. This sensitivity implies that a vertical wind formulation consistent with the transport scheme is essential for accurate transport calculations. The computational savings of the time-splitting method used to solve this equation are shown. Finally, the capabilities of this scheme are illustrated by an ozone transport and chemistry model simulation.
Abstract
The application of van Leer's scheme, a monotonic, upstream-biased differencing scheme, to three-dimensional constituent transport calculations is shown. The major disadvantage of the scheme is shown to be a self-limiting diffusion. A major advantage of the scheme is shown to be its ability to maintain constituent correlations. The scheme is adapted for a spherical coordinate system with a hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate in the vertical. Special consideration is given to cross-polar flow. The vertical wind calculation is shown to be extremely sensitive to the method of calculating the divergence. This sensitivity implies that a vertical wind formulation consistent with the transport scheme is essential for accurate transport calculations. The computational savings of the time-splitting method used to solve this equation are shown. Finally, the capabilities of this scheme are illustrated by an ozone transport and chemistry model simulation.
Abstract
The temperature of the stratosphere has decreased over the past several decades. Two causes contribute to that decrease: well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). This paper addresses the attribution of temperature decreases to these two causes and the implications of that attribution for the future evolution of stratospheric temperature. Time series analysis is applied to simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to separate the contributions of GHGs from those of ODSs based on their different time-dependent signatures. The analysis indicates that about 60%–70% of the temperature decrease of the past two decades in the upper stratosphere near 1 hPa and in the lower midlatitude stratosphere near 50 hPa resulted from changes attributable to ODSs, primarily through their impact on ozone. As ozone recovers over the next several decades, the temperature should continue to decrease in the middle and upper stratosphere because of GHG increases. The time series of observed temperature in the upper stratosphere is approaching the length needed to separate the effects of ozone-depleting substances from those of greenhouse gases using temperature time series data.
Abstract
The temperature of the stratosphere has decreased over the past several decades. Two causes contribute to that decrease: well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). This paper addresses the attribution of temperature decreases to these two causes and the implications of that attribution for the future evolution of stratospheric temperature. Time series analysis is applied to simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to separate the contributions of GHGs from those of ODSs based on their different time-dependent signatures. The analysis indicates that about 60%–70% of the temperature decrease of the past two decades in the upper stratosphere near 1 hPa and in the lower midlatitude stratosphere near 50 hPa resulted from changes attributable to ODSs, primarily through their impact on ozone. As ozone recovers over the next several decades, the temperature should continue to decrease in the middle and upper stratosphere because of GHG increases. The time series of observed temperature in the upper stratosphere is approaching the length needed to separate the effects of ozone-depleting substances from those of greenhouse gases using temperature time series data.
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer’s evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. This study investigates the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960–2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model’s climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979–2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November–January. It enhances stratosphere–troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer’s evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. This study investigates the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960–2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model’s climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979–2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November–January. It enhances stratosphere–troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.
Abstract
A three-dimensional simulation of the evolution of HNO3 has been run for the winter of 1979. Winds and temperatures are taken from a stratospheric data assimilation analysis, and the chemistry is based on Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations. The model is compared to LIMS observations to investigate the problem of “missing” nitric acid chemistry in the winter hemisphere. Both the model and observations support the contention that a nitric acid source is needed outside of the polar vortex and north of the subtropics.
Observations show that nitric acid and potential vorticity are uncorrelated in middle latitudes outside the polar vortex. This suggests that HNO3 is not dynamically controlled in middle latitudes. The model shows that given the time scales of conventional chemistry, dynamical control is expected. Therefore, an error exists in the conventional chemistry or additional processes are needed to bring the model and data into agreement. Since the polar vortex is dynamically isolated from the middle latitudes, and since the highest HNO3 values are observed in October and November, a source associated solely with polar stratospheric clouds cannot explain the deficiencies in the chemistry. The role of heterogeneous processes on background aerosols is reviewed in light of these results.
Abstract
A three-dimensional simulation of the evolution of HNO3 has been run for the winter of 1979. Winds and temperatures are taken from a stratospheric data assimilation analysis, and the chemistry is based on Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations. The model is compared to LIMS observations to investigate the problem of “missing” nitric acid chemistry in the winter hemisphere. Both the model and observations support the contention that a nitric acid source is needed outside of the polar vortex and north of the subtropics.
Observations show that nitric acid and potential vorticity are uncorrelated in middle latitudes outside the polar vortex. This suggests that HNO3 is not dynamically controlled in middle latitudes. The model shows that given the time scales of conventional chemistry, dynamical control is expected. Therefore, an error exists in the conventional chemistry or additional processes are needed to bring the model and data into agreement. Since the polar vortex is dynamically isolated from the middle latitudes, and since the highest HNO3 values are observed in October and November, a source associated solely with polar stratospheric clouds cannot explain the deficiencies in the chemistry. The role of heterogeneous processes on background aerosols is reviewed in light of these results.
