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- Author or Editor: Ayan H. Chaudhuri x
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Abstract
The authors examine five recent reanalysis products [NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR)] for 1) trends in near-surface radiation fluxes, air temperature, and humidity, which are important indicators of changes within the Arctic Ocean and also influence sea ice and ocean conditions, and 2) fidelity of these atmospheric fields and effects for an extreme event: namely, the 2007 ice retreat. An analysis of trends over the Arctic for the past decade (2000–09) shows that reanalysis solutions have large spreads, particularly for downwelling shortwave radiation. In many cases, the differences in significant trends between the five reanalysis products are comparable to the estimated trend within a particular product. These discrepancies make it difficult to establish a consensus on likely changes occurring in the Arctic solely based on results from reanalyses fields. Regarding the 2007 ice retreat event, comparisons with remotely sensed estimates of downwelling radiation observations against these reanalysis products present an ambiguity. Remotely sensed observations from a study cited herewith suggest a large increase in downwelling summertime shortwave radiation and decrease in downwelling summertime longwave radiation from 2006 and 2007. On the contrary, the reanalysis products show only small gains in summertime shortwave radiation, if any; however, all the products show increases in downwelling longwave radiation. Thus, agreement within reanalysis fields needs to be further checked against observations to assess possible biases common to all products.
Abstract
The authors examine five recent reanalysis products [NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR)] for 1) trends in near-surface radiation fluxes, air temperature, and humidity, which are important indicators of changes within the Arctic Ocean and also influence sea ice and ocean conditions, and 2) fidelity of these atmospheric fields and effects for an extreme event: namely, the 2007 ice retreat. An analysis of trends over the Arctic for the past decade (2000–09) shows that reanalysis solutions have large spreads, particularly for downwelling shortwave radiation. In many cases, the differences in significant trends between the five reanalysis products are comparable to the estimated trend within a particular product. These discrepancies make it difficult to establish a consensus on likely changes occurring in the Arctic solely based on results from reanalyses fields. Regarding the 2007 ice retreat event, comparisons with remotely sensed estimates of downwelling radiation observations against these reanalysis products present an ambiguity. Remotely sensed observations from a study cited herewith suggest a large increase in downwelling summertime shortwave radiation and decrease in downwelling summertime longwave radiation from 2006 and 2007. On the contrary, the reanalysis products show only small gains in summertime shortwave radiation, if any; however, all the products show increases in downwelling longwave radiation. Thus, agreement within reanalysis fields needs to be further checked against observations to assess possible biases common to all products.
Abstract
The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993–2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream’s path from 75° to 55°W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65°W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7–10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60°W, where a new interannual (4–5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4–5 years) was missing to the west of 65°W. The region between 65° and 60°W seems to be a transition region. A 2–3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4–5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.
Abstract
The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993–2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream’s path from 75° to 55°W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65°W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7–10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60°W, where a new interannual (4–5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4–5 years) was missing to the west of 65°W. The region between 65° and 60°W seems to be a transition region. A 2–3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4–5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.
Abstract
The uncertainties related to atmospheric fields in the Arctic Ocean from commonly used and recently available reanalysis products are investigated. Fields from the 1) ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), 2) Common Ocean–Ice Reference Experiment version 2 (CORE2), 3) Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), 4) NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, 5) NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and 6) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated against satellite-derived and in situ observations for zonal and meridional winds, precipitation, specific humidity, surface air temperature, and downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes. Comparison to reference observations shows that for variables such as air temperature and humidity, all reanalysis products have similar solutions. However, other variables such as winds, precipitation, and radiation show large spreads. The magnitude of uncertainties in all fields is large when compared to the signal. Biases in Arctic cloud parameterizations and predicted temperature and humidity profiles in reanalyses as discussed in other studies are likely common sources of error that affect surface downwelling radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation.
Abstract
The uncertainties related to atmospheric fields in the Arctic Ocean from commonly used and recently available reanalysis products are investigated. Fields from the 1) ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), 2) Common Ocean–Ice Reference Experiment version 2 (CORE2), 3) Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), 4) NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, 5) NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and 6) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated against satellite-derived and in situ observations for zonal and meridional winds, precipitation, specific humidity, surface air temperature, and downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes. Comparison to reference observations shows that for variables such as air temperature and humidity, all reanalysis products have similar solutions. However, other variables such as winds, precipitation, and radiation show large spreads. The magnitude of uncertainties in all fields is large when compared to the signal. Biases in Arctic cloud parameterizations and predicted temperature and humidity profiles in reanalyses as discussed in other studies are likely common sources of error that affect surface downwelling radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation.
Abstract
This paper investigates the uncertainties related to atmospheric fields from reanalysis products used in forcing ocean models. Four reanalysis products, namely from 1) the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), 2) version 2 of the Common Reference Ocean–Ice Experiments (CORE2), 3) the 25-Year Japanese Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), and 4) NCEP–NCAR, are evaluated against satellite-derived observations for eight different fields (zonal and meridional winds, precipitation, specific humidity, continental discharge, surface air temperature, and downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes). No single product is found to agree better in all fields with satellite-derived observations. Reanalysis products are mostly comparable to each other because of their similar physical assumptions and assimilation of common observations. Adjusted atmospheric fields from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) optimizations are also in agreement with other reanalysis products. Time-mean and time-variable errors are estimated separately and mapped globally in space, based on 14-day average fields to focus on monthly to interannual periods. Time-variable errors are larger in comparison to the signal than time-mean errors for most fields, thus justifying the need to separate them for studying uncertainties as well as formulating optimization procedures. Precipitation and wind stress fields show significant time-mean and time-variable errors whereas downwelling radiation, air temperature, and humidity fields show small time-mean errors but large time-variable errors, particularly in the tropics. Uncertainties based on evaluating multiple products presented here are considerably larger than uncertainties based on single product pairs.
Abstract
This paper investigates the uncertainties related to atmospheric fields from reanalysis products used in forcing ocean models. Four reanalysis products, namely from 1) the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), 2) version 2 of the Common Reference Ocean–Ice Experiments (CORE2), 3) the 25-Year Japanese Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), and 4) NCEP–NCAR, are evaluated against satellite-derived observations for eight different fields (zonal and meridional winds, precipitation, specific humidity, continental discharge, surface air temperature, and downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes). No single product is found to agree better in all fields with satellite-derived observations. Reanalysis products are mostly comparable to each other because of their similar physical assumptions and assimilation of common observations. Adjusted atmospheric fields from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) optimizations are also in agreement with other reanalysis products. Time-mean and time-variable errors are estimated separately and mapped globally in space, based on 14-day average fields to focus on monthly to interannual periods. Time-variable errors are larger in comparison to the signal than time-mean errors for most fields, thus justifying the need to separate them for studying uncertainties as well as formulating optimization procedures. Precipitation and wind stress fields show significant time-mean and time-variable errors whereas downwelling radiation, air temperature, and humidity fields show small time-mean errors but large time-variable errors, particularly in the tropics. Uncertainties based on evaluating multiple products presented here are considerably larger than uncertainties based on single product pairs.
Abstract
Regional observational studies in the North Atlantic have noted significant hydrographical shifts in 1997–98 because of the episodic drop in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during 1996. Investigation using a basin-scale model finds that, although the western North Atlantic (WNA) witnessed unusually low-salinity water by 1997, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) simultaneously evidenced intrusions of high-salinity water at intermediate depths. This study shows that a major source of high salinity in the ENA is from the northward penetration of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) that occurred concurrently with a westward shift of the subpolar front. The authors confirm that the low-salinity intrusion in the WNA is from enhanced Labrador Current flow. Results from climatological high- and low-NAO simulations suggest that the NAO-induced circulation changes that occurred in 1997–98 are a characteristic North Atlantic basin response to different forcing conditions during characteristic high- and low-NAO periods.
Abstract
Regional observational studies in the North Atlantic have noted significant hydrographical shifts in 1997–98 because of the episodic drop in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during 1996. Investigation using a basin-scale model finds that, although the western North Atlantic (WNA) witnessed unusually low-salinity water by 1997, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) simultaneously evidenced intrusions of high-salinity water at intermediate depths. This study shows that a major source of high salinity in the ENA is from the northward penetration of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) that occurred concurrently with a westward shift of the subpolar front. The authors confirm that the low-salinity intrusion in the WNA is from enhanced Labrador Current flow. Results from climatological high- and low-NAO simulations suggest that the NAO-induced circulation changes that occurred in 1997–98 are a characteristic North Atlantic basin response to different forcing conditions during characteristic high- and low-NAO periods.
Abstract
Long-period tides (LPT) are studied using a stratified, primitive equation model on a global domain and in the presence of a fully developed, atmospherically forced ocean general circulation. The major LPT constituents, from termensual to nodal (18.6 yr) periods, are examined. Ocean circulation variability can overwhelm the longest tide signals and make inferring LPT from data difficult, but model results suggest that bottom pressure offers cleaner signal-to-noise ratios than sea level, particularly at low latitudes where atmospherically driven variability is substantially stronger at the surface than at the bottom. Most tides exhibit a significant large-scale dynamic response, with the tendency for weaker nonequilibrium signals in the Atlantic compared to the Pacific as seen in previous studies. However, across most tidal lines, the largest dynamic signals tend to occur in the Arctic and Nordic Seas and also in Hudson Bay. Bathymetry and coastal geometry contribute to the modeled nonequilibrium behavior. Baroclinic effects tend to increase with the tidal period. Apart from short spatial-scale modulations associated with topographic interactions, the excitation of various propagating baroclinic wave modes is clearly part of the modeled LPT, particularly at tropical latitudes, for fortnightly and longer-period tides.
Abstract
Long-period tides (LPT) are studied using a stratified, primitive equation model on a global domain and in the presence of a fully developed, atmospherically forced ocean general circulation. The major LPT constituents, from termensual to nodal (18.6 yr) periods, are examined. Ocean circulation variability can overwhelm the longest tide signals and make inferring LPT from data difficult, but model results suggest that bottom pressure offers cleaner signal-to-noise ratios than sea level, particularly at low latitudes where atmospherically driven variability is substantially stronger at the surface than at the bottom. Most tides exhibit a significant large-scale dynamic response, with the tendency for weaker nonequilibrium signals in the Atlantic compared to the Pacific as seen in previous studies. However, across most tidal lines, the largest dynamic signals tend to occur in the Arctic and Nordic Seas and also in Hudson Bay. Bathymetry and coastal geometry contribute to the modeled nonequilibrium behavior. Baroclinic effects tend to increase with the tidal period. Apart from short spatial-scale modulations associated with topographic interactions, the excitation of various propagating baroclinic wave modes is clearly part of the modeled LPT, particularly at tropical latitudes, for fortnightly and longer-period tides.
