Abstract

Based on results from analytic and general circulation models, the authors propose a theory for the coupled warm pool, cold tongue, and Walker circulation system. The intensity of the coupled system is determined by the coupling strength, the local equilibrium time, and latitudinal differential heating. Most importantly, this intensity is strongly regulated in the coupled system, with a saturation level that can be reached at a modest coupling strength. The saturation west–east sea surface temperature difference (and the associated Walker circulation) corresponds to about one-quarter of the latitudinal differential equilibrium temperature. This regulation is caused primarily by the decoupling of the SST gradient from a strong ocean current. The author’s estimate suggests that the present Pacific is near the saturation state. Furthermore, the much weaker Walker circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean is interpreted as being the result of the influence of the adjacent land, which is able to extend into the entire Atlantic to change the zonal distribution of the trade wind. The theory is also applied to understand the tropical climatology in coupled GCM simulations, in the Last Glacial Maximum climate, and in the global warming climate, as well as in the regulation of the tropical sea surface temperature.

Abstract

It is suggested that the tritium maximum in the central Pacific is caused by two water pathways across the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), one from the central Pacific and the other from the Mindanao Current. It is argued that an interior pathway exists, by which tritium-rich thermocline waters from the subtropical North Pacific cross the NECC in the central Pacific. The transport in this pathway, however, is small compared with that from the Mindanao Current.

Abstract

The linear temperature trend of the last 40 yr (1955–94) in the upper Pacific Ocean above 400 m is studied using an objectively analyzed dataset and simulations of an ocean general circulation model. Both the data and simulations suggest a warming trend in the western tropical Pacific (10°S–10°N) near the surface and in the eastern tropical Pacific above 400 m but a cooling trend in the thermocline of the western tropical Pacific. In the midlatitude North Pacific (30°–50°N), the temperature trend is positive east of 150°W but negative to the west.

Simulated heat budget indicates that the temperature trend in the tropical Pacific may result from oceanic advection. In the central and western Pacific, the surface warming is associated with the reduction of cold advection from the off-equatorial divergent flow and the South Equatorial Current, while the cooling in the thermocline is related to the reduction of equatorward warm advection. In the eastern Pacific, the warming is associated with the reduction of upwelling. The reduction of these ocean currents, in turn, may result largely from the weakening of the trade winds.

In the midlatitude North Pacific, the ocean temperature trends similarly may result from the oceanic advection associated with the reduction of the westerlies. The effect of net surface heat flux into the ocean is a damping factor to the sea surface temperature. These studies highlight the importance of oceanic advection in producing long-term temperature trends.

Abstract

In the study of decadal variations of the Pacific Ocean circulations and temperature, the role of anomalous net atmospheric freshwater [evaporation minus precipitation minus river runoff (EmP)] has received scant attention even though ocean salinity anomalies are long lived and can be expected to have more variance at low frequencies than at high frequencies. To explore the magnitude of salinity and temperature anomalies and their generation processes, the authors studied the response of the Pacific Ocean to idealized EmP anomalies in the Tropics and subtropics using an ocean general circulation model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Simulations showed that salinity anomalies generated by the anomalous EmP were spread throughout the Pacific basin by mean flow advection. This redistribution of salinity anomalies caused adjustments of basin-scale ocean currents, which further resulted in basin-scale temperature anomalies due to changes in heat advection caused by anomalous currents. In this study, the response of the Pacific Ocean to magnitudes and locations of anomalous EmP was linear. When forced with a positive EmP anomaly in the subtropical North (South) Pacific, a cooling occurred in the western North (South) Pacific, which extended to the tropical and South (North) Pacific, and a warming occurred in the eastern North (South) Pacific. When forced with a negative EmP anomaly in the tropical Pacific, a warming occurred in the tropical Pacific and western North and South Pacific and a cooling occurred in the eastern North Pacific near 30°N and the South Pacific near 30°S. The temperature changes (0.2°C) in the tropical Pacific were associated with changes in the South Equatorial Current. The temperature changes (0.8°C) in the subtropical North and South Pacific were associated with changes in the subtropical gyres. The temperature anomalies propagated from the tropical Pacific to the subtropical North and South Pacific via equatorial divergent Ekman flows and poleward western boundary currents, and they propagated from the subtropical North and South Pacific to the western tropical Pacific via equatorward-propagating coastal Kelvin waves and to the eastern tropical Pacific via eastward-propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. The time scale of temperature response was typically much longer than that of salinity response because of slow adjustment times of ocean circulations. These results imply that the slow response of ocean temperature due to anomalous EmP in the Tropics and subtropics may play an important role in the Pacific decadal variability.

Abstract

The ocean heat uptake (OHU) is studied using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean general circulation model (OGCM) with idealized ocean geometry. The OGCM is coupled with a statistical–dynamic atmospheric model. The simulation of OHU in the coupled model is consistent with other coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs in a transient climate change when CO₂ concentration increases by 1% yr^–1. The global average surface air temperature increases by 1.7°C at the time of CO₂ concentration doubling (year 70). The ocean temperature increases by about 1.0°C near the surface, 0.1°C at 1000 m in the Pacific, and 0.3°C in the Atlantic. The maximum overturning circulation (MOTC) in the Atlantic at 1350 m decreases by about 4.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s^–1). The center of MOTC drifts upward about 300 m, and therefore a large OTC anomaly (14 Sv) is found at 2700 m. The MOTC recovers gradually, but the OTC anomaly at 2700 m does not seem to recover after CO₂ concentration is kept constant during 400-yr simulation period.

The diagnosis of heat flux convergence anomaly indicates that the warming in the lower latitudes of the Atlantic is associated with large-scale advection. But, the warming in the higher latitudes is associated with the heat brought down from the surface by convection and eddy mixing. In global average, the treatments of convection and eddy mixing are the two main factors affecting the OHU.

The uncertainty of OHU due to subgrid-scale eddy mixing is studied. In the MIT OGCM this mixing is a combination of Gent–McWilliams bolus advection and Redi isopycnal diffusion (GMR), with a single diffusivity being used to calculate the isopycnal and thickness diffusion. Experiments are carried out with values of the diffusivity of 500, 1000, and 2000 m² s^–1. The total OHU is insensitive to these changes. The insensitivity is mainly due to the changes in the vertical heat flux by GMR mixing being compensated by changes in the other vertical heat flux components.

In the Atlantic when the diffusivity is reduced from 1000 to 500 m² s^–1, the surface warming can penetrate deeper. Therefore, the warming decreases by about 0.15°C above 2000 m but increases by about 0.15°C below 2500 m. Similarly, when the diffusivity is increased from 1000 to 2000 m² s^–1, the surface warming becomes shallower; the warming increases by about 0.2°C above 1000 m but decreases by about 0.2°C below 1000 m. These changes in the vertical distribution of the OHU also contribute to the insensitivity of the total OHU to changes in the GMR mixing. The analysis of heat flux convergence indicates that the difference of OHU seems to be associated with the MOTC circulation.

Abstract

The relative roles of buoy and Argo observations in two sea surface temperature (SST) analyses are studied in the global ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over 2000–16 using monthly Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and Daily Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (DOISST). Experiments show an overall higher impact by buoys than Argo floats over the global oceans and an increasing impact by Argo floats. The impact by Argo floats is generally larger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on trends and anomalies of globally averaged SST by either one is small when the other is used. The warming trend over 2000–16 remains significant by including either buoys or Argo floats or both. In the tropical Pacific, the impact by buoys was large over 2000–05 when the number of Argo floats was low, and became smaller over 2010–16 when the number and area coverage of Argo floats increased. The magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events decreases when the observations from buoys, Argo floats, or both are excluded. The impact by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) and Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) is small in normal years and during El Niño events. The impact by TAO/TRITON buoys on La Niña events is small when Argo floats are included in the analysis systems, and large when Argo floats are not included. The reason for the different impact on El Niño and La Niña events is that the drifting buoys are more dispersed from the equatorial Pacific region by stronger trade winds during La Niña events.

Abstract

Arctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are estimated mostly from satellite sea ice concentration (SIC) estimates. In regions with sea ice the SST is the temperature of open water or of the water under the ice. A number of different proxy SST estimates based on SIC have been developed. In recent years more Arctic quality-control buoy SSTs have become available, allowing better validation of different estimates and the development of improved proxy estimates. Here proxy SSTs from different approaches are evaluated and an improved proxy SST method is shown. The improved proxy SSTs were tested in an SST analysis, and showed reduced bias and random errors compared to the Arctic buoy SSTs. Almost all reduction in errors is in the warm melt season. In the cold season the SIC is typically high and all estimates tend to have low errors. The improved method will be incorporated into an operational SST analysis.

Abstract

The mixed layer heat budget in the tropical Pacific is diagnosed using pentad (5 day) averaged outputs from the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS), which is operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The GODAS is currently used by the NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to monitor and to understand El Niño and La Niña in near real time. The purpose of this study is to assess the feasibility of using an operational ocean data assimilation system to understand SST variability.

The climatological mean and seasonal cycle of mixed layer heat budgets derived from GODAS agree reasonably well with previous observational and model-based estimates. However, significant differences and biases were noticed. Large biases were found in GODAS zonal and meridional currents, which contributed to biases in the annual cycle of zonal and meridional advective heat fluxes. The warming due to tropical instability waves in boreal fall is severely underestimated owing to use of a 4-week data assimilation window. On interannual time scales, the GODAS heat budget closure is good for weak-to-moderate El Niños. A composite for weak-to-moderate El Niños suggests that zonal and meridional temperature advection and vertical entrainment/diffusion all contributed to the onset of the event and that zonal advection played the dominant role during decay of the event and the transition to La Niña. The net surface heat flux acts as a damping during the development stage, but plays a critical role in the decay of El Niño and the transition to the following La Niña.

The GODAS heat budget closure is generally poor for strong La Niñas. Despite the biases, the GODAS heat budget analysis tool is useful in monitoring and understanding the physical processes controlling SST variability associated with ENSO. Therefore, it has been implemented operationally at CPC in support of NOAA’s ENSO forecasting.

Abstract

The deep-ocean heat uptake (DOHU) in transient climate changes is studied using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and its adjoint. The model configuration consists of idealized Pacific and Atlantic basins. The model is forced with the anomalies of surface heat and freshwater fluxes from a global warming scenario with a coupled model using the same ocean configuration. In the global warming scenario, CO₂ concentration increases 1% yr⁻¹. The heat uptake calculated from the coupled model and from the adjoint are virtually identical, showing that the heat uptake by the OGCM is a linear process.

After 70 yr the ocean heat uptake is almost evenly distributed within the layers above 200 m, between 200 and 700 m, and below 700 m (about 20 × 10²² J in each). The effect of anomalous surface freshwater flux on the DOHU is negligible. Analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-2) data for the same global warming scenario shows that qualitatively similar results apply to coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs.

The penetration of surface heat flux to the deep ocean in the OGCM occurs mainly in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, since both the sensitivity of DOHU to the surface heat flux and the magnitude of anomalous surface heat flux are large in these two regions. The DOHU relies on the reduction of convection and Gent–McWilliams–Redi mixing in the North Atlantic, and the reduction of Gent–McWilliams–Redi mixing in the Southern Ocean.

Abstract

The NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (DOISST) has recently been updated to v2.1 (January 2016–present). Its accuracy may impact the climate assessment, monitoring and prediction, and environment-related applications. Its performance, together with those of seven other well-known sea surface temperature (SST) products, is assessed by comparison with buoy and Argo observations in the global oceans on daily 0.25° × 0.25° resolution from January 2016 to June 2020. These seven SST products are NASA MUR25, GHRSST GMPE, BoM GAMSSA, UKMO OSTIA, NOAA GPB, ESA CCI, and CMC. Our assessments indicate that biases and root-mean-square difference (RMSDs) in reference to all buoys and all Argo floats are low in DOISST. The bias in reference to the independent 10% of buoy SSTs remains low in DOISST, but the RMSD is slightly higher in DOISST than in OSTIA and CMC. The biases in reference to the independent 10% of Argo observations are low in CMC, DOISST, and GMPE; also, RMSDs are low in GMPE and CMC. The biases are similar in GAMSSA, OSTIA, GPB, and CCI whether they are compared against all buoys, all Argo, or the 10% of buoy or 10% of Argo observations, while the RMSDs against Argo observations are slightly smaller than those against buoy observations. These features indicate a good performance of DOISST v2.1 among the eight products, which may benefit from ingesting the Argo observations by expanding global and regional spatial coverage of in situ observations for effective bias correction of satellite data.