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Isaac Davis
and
Brian Medeiros

Abstract

The Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), has a very high climate sensitivity driven by strong positive cloud feedbacks. To evaluate the simulated clouds in the present climate and characterize their response with climate warming, a clustering approach is applied to three independent satellite cloud products and a set of coupled climate simulations. Using k-means clustering with a Wasserstein distance cost function, a set of typical cloud configurations is derived for the satellite cloud products. Using satellite simulator output, the model clouds are classified into the observed cloud regimes in both current and future climates. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed cloud configurations in the historical simulation using the same time period as the satellite observations, but it struggles to capture the observed heterogeneity of clouds which leads to an overestimation of the frequency of a few preferred cloud regimes. This problem is especially apparent for boundary layer clouds. Those low-level cloud regimes also account for much of the climate response in the late twenty-first century in four shared socioeconomic pathway simulations. The model reduces the frequency of occurrence of these low-cloud regimes, especially in tropical regions under large-scale subsidence, in favor of regimes that have weaker cloud radiative effects.

Open access
Honghai Zhang
,
Amy Clement
, and
Brian Medeiros

Abstract

The meridional mode provides a source of predictability for the tropical climate variability and change on seasonal and longer time scales by transporting extratropical climate signals into the tropics. Previous research shows that the tropical imprint of the meridional mode is constrained by the interhemispheric asymmetry of the tropical mean climate state. In this study the constraint of the zonal asymmetry is investigated in an AGCM thermodynamically coupled with an aquaplanet slab ocean model. The strategy is to modify the zonal asymmetry of the mean climate state and examine the response of the meridional mode. Presented here are two simulations of different zonal asymmetries in the mean state. In the zonally symmetric case, the meridional mode operates throughout the subtropics but only becomes evident after removing a dominant global-scale eastward-propagating mode. In the zonally asymmetric case, the meridional mode operates only in regions where trade winds converge onto the equator and has an enlarged spatial scale due to the modified mean climate including cold sea surface and weak trade winds. In both simulations, the tropical imprint of the meridional mode is constrained by the north–south seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone. These results suggest that the meridional mode does not require the zonal asymmetry of the mean state but is intrinsic to the subtropical ocean–atmosphere coupled system with its characteristics subject to the mean climate state. The implication is that the internal climate variability needs to be assessed in the context of the mean climate state.

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Kevin M. Grise
and
Brian Medeiros

Abstract

This study examines the dynamical mechanisms responsible for changes in midlatitude clouds and cloud radiative effects (CRE) that occur in conjunction with meridional shifts in the jet streams over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans. When the midlatitude jet shifts poleward, extratropical cyclones and their associated upward vertical velocity anomalies closely follow. As a result, a poleward jet shift contributes to a poleward shift in high-topped storm-track clouds and their associated longwave CRE. However, when the jet shifts poleward, downward vertical velocity anomalies increase equatorward of the jet, contributing to an enhancement of the boundary layer estimated inversion strength (EIS) and an increase in low cloud amount there. Because shortwave CRE depends on the reflection of solar radiation by clouds in all layers, the shortwave cooling effects of midlatitude clouds increase with both upward vertical velocity anomalies and positive EIS anomalies. Over midlatitude oceans where a poleward jet shift contributes to positive EIS anomalies but downward vertical velocity anomalies, the two effects cancel, and net observed changes in shortwave CRE are small.

Global climate models generally capture the observed anomalies associated with midlatitude jet shifts. However, there is large intermodel spread in the shortwave CRE anomalies, with a subset of models showing a large shortwave cloud radiative warming over midlatitude oceans with a poleward jet shift. In these models, midlatitude shortwave CRE is sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations, but the observed sensitivity to EIS perturbations is underestimated. Consequently, these models might incorrectly estimate future midlatitude cloud feedbacks in regions where appreciable changes in both vertical velocity and EIS are projected.

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Brian Medeiros
,
Alex Hall
, and
Bjorn Stevens

Abstract

The depth of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a climatologically important quantity that has received little attention on regional to global scales. Here a 10-yr climatology of PBL depth from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) atmospheric GCM is analyzed using the PBL mass budget. Based on the dominant physical processes, several PBL regimes are identified. These regimes tend to exhibit large-scale geographic organization. Locally generated buoyancy fluxes and static stability control PBL depth nearly everywhere, though convective mass flux has a large influence at tropical marine locations. Virtually all geographical variability in PBL depth can be linearly related to these quantities. While dry convective boundary layers dominate over land, stratocumulus-topped boundary layers are most common over ocean. This division of regimes leads to a dramatic land–sea contrast in PBL depth. Diurnal effects keep mean PBL depth over land shallow despite large daytime surface fluxes. The contrast arises because the large daily exchange of heat and mass between the PBL and free atmosphere over land is not present over the ocean, where mixing is accomplished by turbulent entrainment. Consistent treatment of remnant air from the deep, daytime PBL is necessary for proper representation of this diurnal behavior over land. Many locations exhibit seasonal shifts in PBL regime related to changes in PBL clouds. These shifts are controlled by seasonal variations in buoyancy flux and static stability.

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Yunyan Zhang
,
Bjorn Stevens
,
Brian Medeiros
, and
Michael Ghil

Abstract

This paper explores the capability of the mixed-layer model (MLM) to represent the observed relationship between low-cloud fraction and lower-tropospheric stability; it also investigates the influence of large-scale meteorological fields and their variability on this relationship. The MLM’s local equilibrium solutions are examined subject to realistic boundary forcings that are derived from data of the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The MLM is successful in reproducing the positive correlation between low-cloud fraction and lower-tropospheric stability. The most accurate relationship emerges when the forcings capture synoptic variability, in particular, the daily varying large-scale divergence is a leading factor in improving the regression slope.

The feature of the results is mainly attributed to the model cloud fraction’s intrinsic nonlinear response to the divergence field. Given this nonlinearity, the full range of divergence must be accounted for since a broad distribution of divergences will give a better cloud fraction overall, although model biases might still affect individual MLM results. The model cloud fraction responds rather linearly to lower-tropospheric stability, and the distribution of the latter is less sensitive to sampling at different time scales than divergence. The strongest relationship between cloud fraction and stability emerges in the range of intermediate stability values. This conditional dependence is evident in both model results and observations. The observed correlation between cloud fraction and stability may thus depend on the underlying distribution of weather noise, and hence may not be appropriate in situations where such statistics can be expected to change.

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Rosimar Rios-Berrios
,
Falko Judt
,
George Bryan
,
Brian Medeiros
, and
Wei Wang

Abstract

Accurate simulations of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) are key to properly forecasting rainfall and weather patterns within (and outside) the tropics. Many studies have shown that global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models usually do not accurately simulate CCEWs; however, it is unclear if this problem can be alleviated with a better representation of deep convection in the models. To this end, this study investigates the representation of multiple types of CCEWs in the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The simulated structure of CCEWs is analyzed from three MPAS-A aquaplanet experiments with horizontal cell spacing of 30, 15, and 3 km, respectively. Using a wave-phase composite technique, the simulated structure is compared against observed CCEWs as represented by satellite and reanalysis data. All aquaplanet experiments capture the overall structure of gravity wave–type equatorial waves (e.g., Kelvin waves and inertio-gravity waves). Those waves are more realistic in the 3-km experiment, particularly in terms of the vertical structure of temperature, water vapor, and wind anomalies associated with the waves. The main reason for this improvement is a more realistic diabatic heating profile; the experiment with resolved convection produces stronger heating (or weaker cooling) below the melting level during the convectively active phase of Kelvin and inertio-gravity waves. Intriguingly, the rainfall and lower-tropospheric structure associated with easterly waves show pronounced discrepancies between the aquaplanet experiments and reanalysis. Resolved deep convection primarily affects the intensity and propagation speeds of these waves.

Free access
Margaret L. Duffy
,
Brian Medeiros
,
Andrew Gettelman
, and
Trude Eidhammer

Abstract

The sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to atmospheric model parameters is evaluated using a CAM6 perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE). The CAM6 PPE perturbs 45 parameters across 262 simulations, 206 of which are used here. The spread in the total cloud feedback and its six components across the CAM6 PPE are comparable to the spread across the CMIP6 and AMIP ensembles, indicating that parametric uncertainty mirrors structural uncertainty. However, the high-cloud altitude feedback is generally larger in the CAM6 PPE than WCRP assessment, CMIP6, and AMIP values. We evaluate the influence of each of the 45 parameters on the total cloud feedback and each of the six cloud feedback components. We also explore whether the CAM6 PPE can be used to constrain the total cloud feedback, with inconclusive results. Further, we find that despite the large parametric sensitivity of cloud feedbacks in CAM6, a substantial increase in cloud feedbacks from CAM5 to CAM6 is not a result of changes in parameter values. Notably, the CAM6 PPE is run with a more recent version of CAM6 (CAM6.3) than was used for AMIP (CAM6.0) and has a smaller total cloud feedback (0.56 W m−2 K−1) as compared to CAM6.0 (0.81 W m−2 K−1) owing primarily to reductions in low clouds over the tropics and midlatitudes. The work highlights the large sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to both parameter values and structural details in CAM6.

Open access
Brian Medeiros
,
David L. Williamson
,
Cécile Hannay
, and
Jerry G. Olson

Abstract

Forecasts of October 2006 are used to investigate southeast Pacific stratocumulus in the Community Atmosphere Model, versions 4 and 5 (CAM4 and CAM5). Both models quickly develop biases similar to their climatic biases, suggesting that parameterized physics are the root of the climate errors. An extensive cloud deck is produced in CAM4, but the cloud structure is unrealistic because the boundary layer is too shallow and moist. The boundary layer structure is improved in CAM5, but during the daytime the boundary layer decouples from the cloud layer, causing the cloud layer to break up and transition toward a more trade wind cumulus structure in the afternoon. The cloud liquid water budget shows how different parameterizations contribute to maintaining these different expressions of stratocumulus. Sensitivity experiments help elucidate the origins of the errors. The importance of the diurnal cycle of these clouds for climate simulations is emphasized.

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Eleanor A. Middlemas
,
Amy C. Clement
,
Brian Medeiros
, and
Ben Kirtman

Abstract

Cloud radiative feedbacks are disabled via “cloud-locking” in the Community Earth System Model, version 1.2 (CESM1.2), to result in a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicity from 2–7 years to decadal time scales. We hypothesize that cloud radiative feedbacks may impact the periodicity in three ways: by 1) modulating heat flux locally into the equatorial Pacific subsurface through negative shortwave cloud feedback on sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), 2) damping the persistence of subtropical southeast Pacific SSTA such that the South Pacific meridional mode impacts the duration of ENSO events, or 3) controlling the meridional width of off-equatorial westerly winds, which impacts the periodicity of ENSO by initiating longer Rossby waves. The result of cloud-locking in CESM1.2 contrasts that of another study, which found that cloud-locking in a different global climate model led to decreased ENSO magnitude across all time scales due to a lack of positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation. CESM1.2 contains this positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation, but either its influence on the surface is decoupled from ocean dynamics or the feedback is only active on interannual time scales. The roles of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO in other global climate models are additionally considered. In particular, it is shown that one cannot predict the role of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO through a multimodel diagnostic analysis. Instead, they must be directly altered.

Open access
Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke
,
Kevin A. Reed
, and
Brian Medeiros

Abstract

This work examines the effect of horizontal resolution and topography on the North American monsoon (NAM) in experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. Observations are used to evaluate the fidelity of the representation of the monsoon in simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a standard 1.0° grid spacing and a high-resolution 0.25° grid spacing. The simulated monsoon has some realistic features, but both configurations also show precipitation biases. The default 1.0° grid spacing configuration simulates a monsoon with an annual cycle and intensity of precipitation within the observational range, but the monsoon begins and ends too gradually and does not reach far enough north. This study shows that the improved representation of topography in the high-resolution (0.25° grid spacing) configuration improves the regional circulation and therefore some aspects of the simulated monsoon compared to the 1.0° counterpart. At higher resolution, CAM5 simulates a stronger low pressure center over the American Southwest, with more realistic low-level wind flow than in the 1.0° configuration. As a result, the monsoon precipitation increases as does the amplitude of the annual cycle of precipitation. A moisture analysis sheds light on the monsoon dynamics, indicating that changes in the advection of enthalpy and moist static energy drive the differences between monsoon precipitation in CAM5 1.0° compared to the 0.25° configuration. Additional simulations confirm that these improvements are mainly due to the topographic influence on the low-level flow through the Gulf of California, and not only the increase in horizontal resolution.

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