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C. K. VESTAL

Abstract

Current data analysis methods leading to a climatological probability forecast of the first fall and last spring occurrences of preselected low temperatures do not work well in Florida, the Gulf Coast States, and the Southeastern Atlantic States where these seasons are not well defined. A proposal is made to recognize only a “cold season” beginning July 1 and ending June 30 and to construct data series of the first and last cold season events of low temperatures of interest to assign climatological probabilities to the dates of their occurrence. This proposal eliminates the analytic difficulties of present methods and extracts information from the data series more efficiently. A fit to the normal distribution is verified, and a computational example is given.

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C. K. VESTAL

Abstract

The first-order station annual totals of days with measurable precipitation are examined and found to be normally distributed. Isoline charts of annual means and standard deviations for the contiguous United States are presented, and quantitative guides used for isoline smoothing are described. The tendency of substation values toward lower means and greater dispersion is noted. The suggestion is made that more reliable probability statements of measurable precipitation occurrence can be obtained through use of the mean and standard deviation charts than from using substation data.

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