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C. Lemcke and S. Kruizinga

Abstract

In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation, the probability of thunderstorms, the sunshine, maximum and minimum temperature and the maximum wind speed. For the development of the guidance system, two year of ECMWF data (December 1980–November 1982) were used, while a third year was available as a test period. The period December 1983–November 1986 has been used for verification. Operational forecasters have used the MOS forecast for the preparation of their final forecasts. The results of the MOS forecasts and of subjective forecasts are presented and intercompared in this paper. From this comparison it appears that the forecasters have higher skill scores only for Days 1 and 2; for Days 3, 4 and 5 the differences are, in general, small.

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Lawrence C. Hamilton, Mary Lemcke-Stampone, and Curt Grimm

Abstract

Public acceptance of the reality of human-caused climate change has risen gradually in the United States, reflecting cumulative impacts from scientific research and communication, and perhaps also from experienced manifestations such as extreme weather or change to familiar seasons. In the rural North Country of northern New England, a key manifestation of climate change has been warming winters. A 2017 survey asked North Country residents whether they thought that recent winters have been warmer compared with earlier decades. Winter warming, which in this historically snowy region has broad impacts ranging from the economy to everyday life, was recognized by a majority of residents young and old, male and female, with little or much education—but not by the most conservative. Although our winter question does not mention climate change, responses followed patterns similar to a subsequent question about human-caused climate change. Moreover, the partisan gradient in response to both winter and climate questions is steepest among people reporting that most of their friends belong to the same political party. Partisan constraints on perception of a mundane physical reality could limit the scope for weather or climate experiences to alter beliefs among those whose political/social identity favors climate-change rejection.

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