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- Author or Editor: Carlos R. Mechoso x
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Abstract
A July integration of a GFDL spectral general circulation model is repeated after eliminating from the model the topographic elevations. Zonally averaged. mean fields, regions of frequent Cyclogenesis and cyclone tracks, and the standing waves in geopotential at 500 mb simulated for the Southern Hemisphere in both integrations are compared. It is argued that the differences in the results support the interpretation advanced by Mechoso (1980) concerning the influence of Antarctica an the general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.
Abstract
A July integration of a GFDL spectral general circulation model is repeated after eliminating from the model the topographic elevations. Zonally averaged. mean fields, regions of frequent Cyclogenesis and cyclone tracks, and the standing waves in geopotential at 500 mb simulated for the Southern Hemisphere in both integrations are compared. It is argued that the differences in the results support the interpretation advanced by Mechoso (1980) concerning the influence of Antarctica an the general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.
Abstract
Available observations of the atmospheric circulation over the coast of Antarctica indicate the presence of a core of westerly winds in the upper troposphere. The linear stability of these westerlies is studied by using a semi-spectral numerical model with which the linearized, shallow, anelastic hydrostatic equations are integrated. The influence on the stability of the westerlies of both the slope and amplitude of the topography representative of East Antarctica is analyzed. The results obtained for several basic flows taken as idealizations of possible mean states indicate that although the topography exerts a somewhat stabilizing influence, the doubling times for the unstable perturbations are less than two days in all cases.
It is shown by using a three-level primitive equation model that the combined action of finite-amplitude baroclinic waves migrating from middle latitudes, the topography of Antarctica, and the meridional temperature gradients around the continent can generate westerlies with jetlike structure over the topographic slopes. Furthermore, none of those mechanisms acting separately can generate such a jet.
The results suggest that the region around Antarctica, far from being a place where all baroclinic processes are damped out by topographic slopes, is baroclinically very active with a complicated energy cascade, and that the distinctive topographic characteristics of Antarctica are fundamental to the permanence of low temperatures in its overlying atmosphere.
Abstract
Available observations of the atmospheric circulation over the coast of Antarctica indicate the presence of a core of westerly winds in the upper troposphere. The linear stability of these westerlies is studied by using a semi-spectral numerical model with which the linearized, shallow, anelastic hydrostatic equations are integrated. The influence on the stability of the westerlies of both the slope and amplitude of the topography representative of East Antarctica is analyzed. The results obtained for several basic flows taken as idealizations of possible mean states indicate that although the topography exerts a somewhat stabilizing influence, the doubling times for the unstable perturbations are less than two days in all cases.
It is shown by using a three-level primitive equation model that the combined action of finite-amplitude baroclinic waves migrating from middle latitudes, the topography of Antarctica, and the meridional temperature gradients around the continent can generate westerlies with jetlike structure over the topographic slopes. Furthermore, none of those mechanisms acting separately can generate such a jet.
The results suggest that the region around Antarctica, far from being a place where all baroclinic processes are damped out by topographic slopes, is baroclinically very active with a complicated energy cascade, and that the distinctive topographic characteristics of Antarctica are fundamental to the permanence of low temperatures in its overlying atmosphere.
Abstract
In the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model with boundaries sloping perpendicular to the basic flow, the ratios of the slopes of the bottom and the top to that of the interface between the fluid layers in the basic state are important parameters in the expression of the growth rate of unstable waves. When Eady's (1949) model is extended to include sloping bottom and top boundaries, the growth rates of unstable waves depend on the ratios of the slopes of the bottom and the top to that of the isentropes of the basic state. For the Eady model with sloping bottom, an important parameter characterizing the instability is the ratio between the vertical and horizontal heat transports by the wave divided by the slope of the isentropes of the basic state. An interpretation of these ratios and their relations clarifies the stabilization of the system for large slopes, the variation of the wavelength of the most unstable wave with the bottom slope, and the destabilization of some short waves for negative bottom slopes. It is found that the most unstable wave of the system has zero vertical energy flux convergence at the sloping bottom.
Abstract
In the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model with boundaries sloping perpendicular to the basic flow, the ratios of the slopes of the bottom and the top to that of the interface between the fluid layers in the basic state are important parameters in the expression of the growth rate of unstable waves. When Eady's (1949) model is extended to include sloping bottom and top boundaries, the growth rates of unstable waves depend on the ratios of the slopes of the bottom and the top to that of the isentropes of the basic state. For the Eady model with sloping bottom, an important parameter characterizing the instability is the ratio between the vertical and horizontal heat transports by the wave divided by the slope of the isentropes of the basic state. An interpretation of these ratios and their relations clarifies the stabilization of the system for large slopes, the variation of the wavelength of the most unstable wave with the bottom slope, and the destabilization of some short waves for negative bottom slopes. It is found that the most unstable wave of the system has zero vertical energy flux convergence at the sloping bottom.
Abstract
The characteristics of subseasonal circulation variability over the South Pacific are examined using 10-day lowpass-filtered 700-hPa geopotential height NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The extent to which the variability in each season is characterized by recurrent geographically fixed circulation regimes and/or oscillatory behavior is determined. Two methods of analysis (a K-means cluster analysis and a cross-validated Gaussian mixture model) both indicate three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes in austral fall, winter, and (to some extent) spring. The spatial regime structures are found to be quite similar in each season; they resemble the so-called Pacific–South American (PSA) patterns discussed in previous studies and often referred to as PSA 1 and PSA 2. Oscillatory behavior is investigated using singular spectrum analysis. This identifies a predominantly stationary wave with a period of about 40 days and a spatial structure similar to PSA 1; it is most pronounced in winter and spring and exhibits a noticeable eastward drift as it decays. The power spectrum of variability is otherwise well approximated by a red spectrum, together with enhanced broader-band 15–30-day variability.
The results presented herein indicate that low-frequency variability over the South Pacific is not dominated by a propagating wave whose quadrature phases are PSA 1 and PSA 2, as hitherto described. Rather, it is found that the variability is well described by the occurrence of three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes, with a (near) 40-day oscillation that is predominantly stationary in space. The potential subseasonal predictability implied by this duality is discussed. Only during austral spring is a strong correlation found between El Niño and the frequency of occurrence of the circulation regimes.
Abstract
The characteristics of subseasonal circulation variability over the South Pacific are examined using 10-day lowpass-filtered 700-hPa geopotential height NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The extent to which the variability in each season is characterized by recurrent geographically fixed circulation regimes and/or oscillatory behavior is determined. Two methods of analysis (a K-means cluster analysis and a cross-validated Gaussian mixture model) both indicate three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes in austral fall, winter, and (to some extent) spring. The spatial regime structures are found to be quite similar in each season; they resemble the so-called Pacific–South American (PSA) patterns discussed in previous studies and often referred to as PSA 1 and PSA 2. Oscillatory behavior is investigated using singular spectrum analysis. This identifies a predominantly stationary wave with a period of about 40 days and a spatial structure similar to PSA 1; it is most pronounced in winter and spring and exhibits a noticeable eastward drift as it decays. The power spectrum of variability is otherwise well approximated by a red spectrum, together with enhanced broader-band 15–30-day variability.
The results presented herein indicate that low-frequency variability over the South Pacific is not dominated by a propagating wave whose quadrature phases are PSA 1 and PSA 2, as hitherto described. Rather, it is found that the variability is well described by the occurrence of three to four geographically fixed circulation regimes, with a (near) 40-day oscillation that is predominantly stationary in space. The potential subseasonal predictability implied by this duality is discussed. Only during austral spring is a strong correlation found between El Niño and the frequency of occurrence of the circulation regimes.
Abstract
The energy analysis of the two-layer frontal model of Kotchin (1932) and Orlanski (1968) is reformulated. The new formulation is based on separating the contributions to the eddy kinetic energy of the unstable waves by the changes in 1) the difference in relative momentum between the layers (multiplied by the shear), and in 2) the available potential energy. Such a separation results in a clear characterization of the instabilities, particularly near the Rayleigh, Helmholtz and baroclinic instability limits. The mean meridional circulation induced by the unstable waves is analyzed.
Abstract
The energy analysis of the two-layer frontal model of Kotchin (1932) and Orlanski (1968) is reformulated. The new formulation is based on separating the contributions to the eddy kinetic energy of the unstable waves by the changes in 1) the difference in relative momentum between the layers (multiplied by the shear), and in 2) the available potential energy. Such a separation results in a clear characterization of the instabilities, particularly near the Rayleigh, Helmholtz and baroclinic instability limits. The mean meridional circulation induced by the unstable waves is analyzed.
Abstract
Southern Hemisphere analyses from the surface to 2 mb and from 20 to 80°S for the period May-September 1979 have been used to study the structure of traveling planetary waves. Space-time cross- spectral analysis of the height field has been employed to define the amplitude and phase for both the eastward and westward moving components of particular combinations of zonal wavenumber and frequency band. Latitude-height contour plots of power, phase and coherence squared show that westward moving waves have structure characteristic of barotropic external modes and are coherent across a broad range of latitudes and from the surface to 2 mb, the highest level analyzed. Eastward-moving waves, on the other hand, have more rapid phase variations, especially in the troposphere, and appear more baroclinic. The tropospheric structure of the moving components of wavenumbers 1–4 is as one would expect for baroclinically unstable modes of the Charney type. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 both have double amplitude maxima in the troposphere, separated by ∼20° of latitude. These amplitude maxima are coherent with each other and are about 180° out of phase. The variances of the eastward components of wavenumbers 1 and 2 increase rapidly with altitude in the stratosphere, but the variance in the upper stratosphere is not coherent with that in the troposphere. To explain these observations it is suggested that two linearly independent eastward moving modes are present simultaneously in the Southern Hemisphere, and that these modes are manifestations of the baroclinic instability of the zonal mean flow. One of the modes dominates the variance in the troposphere (Charney mode) and the other dominates the variance in the stratosphere (Green mode).
Abstract
Southern Hemisphere analyses from the surface to 2 mb and from 20 to 80°S for the period May-September 1979 have been used to study the structure of traveling planetary waves. Space-time cross- spectral analysis of the height field has been employed to define the amplitude and phase for both the eastward and westward moving components of particular combinations of zonal wavenumber and frequency band. Latitude-height contour plots of power, phase and coherence squared show that westward moving waves have structure characteristic of barotropic external modes and are coherent across a broad range of latitudes and from the surface to 2 mb, the highest level analyzed. Eastward-moving waves, on the other hand, have more rapid phase variations, especially in the troposphere, and appear more baroclinic. The tropospheric structure of the moving components of wavenumbers 1–4 is as one would expect for baroclinically unstable modes of the Charney type. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 both have double amplitude maxima in the troposphere, separated by ∼20° of latitude. These amplitude maxima are coherent with each other and are about 180° out of phase. The variances of the eastward components of wavenumbers 1 and 2 increase rapidly with altitude in the stratosphere, but the variance in the upper stratosphere is not coherent with that in the troposphere. To explain these observations it is suggested that two linearly independent eastward moving modes are present simultaneously in the Southern Hemisphere, and that these modes are manifestations of the baroclinic instability of the zonal mean flow. One of the modes dominates the variance in the troposphere (Charney mode) and the other dominates the variance in the stratosphere (Green mode).
Abstract
The evolution of the flow in the Southern Hemisphere during the period 31 August-10 November 1979 is examined. The final stratospheric warming of 1979 and the associated reversal of the flow above 10 mb occurred during this period. It is found that this warming processs was newly monotonic but modulated by a series of events with enhanced eddy activity.
Abstract
The evolution of the flow in the Southern Hemisphere during the period 31 August-10 November 1979 is examined. The final stratospheric warming of 1979 and the associated reversal of the flow above 10 mb occurred during this period. It is found that this warming processs was newly monotonic but modulated by a series of events with enhanced eddy activity.
Abstract
A two-layer, shallow-water frontal model on an f-plane is used to study the nonlinear evolution of frontal waves. The fluid is confined to a periodic channel with parallel vertical walls. It is found that, at an advanced stage in the evolution of frontal waves, small-scale disturbances develop along the cold front while the warm front evolves in a smooth fashion. It is shown that the motion field associated with the primary low advects kinetic energy and low potential vorticity into the cold-frontal region. That kinetic energy is transferred by barotropic processes to the secondary disturbances at locations along the cold front where advection of low potential vorticity results in an enhancement of the horizontal shears. On the other hand, kinetic energy is removed from the warm-frontal region, which remains undisturbed.
Abstract
A two-layer, shallow-water frontal model on an f-plane is used to study the nonlinear evolution of frontal waves. The fluid is confined to a periodic channel with parallel vertical walls. It is found that, at an advanced stage in the evolution of frontal waves, small-scale disturbances develop along the cold front while the warm front evolves in a smooth fashion. It is shown that the motion field associated with the primary low advects kinetic energy and low potential vorticity into the cold-frontal region. That kinetic energy is transferred by barotropic processes to the secondary disturbances at locations along the cold front where advection of low potential vorticity results in an enhancement of the horizontal shears. On the other hand, kinetic energy is removed from the warm-frontal region, which remains undisturbed.
Abstract
The persistence of the planetary-scale simulation over the North Pacific Ocean is investigated during 18 Northern Hemisphere winters from 1965/66 to 1982/83. Quasi-stationary flow patterns dominate 20 periods during the 6 El Niño winters. In contrast, 29 such periods are observed during the remaining 12 winters. Nearly all of the quasi-stationary episodes during El Niño winters exhibit negative 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska-Aleutian Island region. During the other 12 winters, episodes characterized by positive height anomalies in that region occur as frequently as those exhibiting negative height anomalies.
The observed persistence of the planetary circulation is contrasted to that simulated by the UCLA general circulation model. Ten winters of model output are analyzed: during five winters, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to evolve through their climatological seasonal cycle while during the other five winters, SST anomalies corresponding to idealized or observed El Niño conditions are added to the climatological field. The model atmosphere has less intraseasonal variability, and quasi-stationary events are less frequent than observed. However, the model is successful in simulating the observed preponderance of quasi-stationary regimes which exhibit below-normal 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska during winters with positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The evolution of the model's quasi-stationary events suggests that they result directly from dynamical processes in midlatitudes, but their characteristics are apparently affected by SST conditions.
Abstract
The persistence of the planetary-scale simulation over the North Pacific Ocean is investigated during 18 Northern Hemisphere winters from 1965/66 to 1982/83. Quasi-stationary flow patterns dominate 20 periods during the 6 El Niño winters. In contrast, 29 such periods are observed during the remaining 12 winters. Nearly all of the quasi-stationary episodes during El Niño winters exhibit negative 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska-Aleutian Island region. During the other 12 winters, episodes characterized by positive height anomalies in that region occur as frequently as those exhibiting negative height anomalies.
The observed persistence of the planetary circulation is contrasted to that simulated by the UCLA general circulation model. Ten winters of model output are analyzed: during five winters, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to evolve through their climatological seasonal cycle while during the other five winters, SST anomalies corresponding to idealized or observed El Niño conditions are added to the climatological field. The model atmosphere has less intraseasonal variability, and quasi-stationary events are less frequent than observed. However, the model is successful in simulating the observed preponderance of quasi-stationary regimes which exhibit below-normal 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska during winters with positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The evolution of the model's quasi-stationary events suggests that they result directly from dynamical processes in midlatitudes, but their characteristics are apparently affected by SST conditions.
Abstract
The time series of annual streamflow of four rivers in southeastern and south-central South America (the Negro, Paraguay, Paraná, and Uruguay Rivers) for the period 1911–93 are analyzed. Application of the multitaper method shows that the following features are significant at the 95% level: 1) a nonlinear trend, 2) a near-decadal component, and 3) interannual peaks with ENSO timescales. The trend and near-decadal components are most marked in the two more central rivers, the Paraguay and Paraná, with ENSO timescale variability most pronounced in the Negro and Uruguay rivers in the southeast. Composites of SST are made for each of the statistically significant oscillatory components of river flow, by reconstructing each component using singular spectrum analysis. These composites confirm the influence of ENSO on the streamflow variability of the Negro and Uruguay Rivers, with El Niño associated with enhanced streamflow. On the decadal timescale, high river runoff is associated with anomalously cool SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic. A very similar near-decadal oscillation in SST over this region is identified separately from a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of gridded annual mean SSTs. The near-decadal component of the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers is strongest in the austral summer.
Abstract
The time series of annual streamflow of four rivers in southeastern and south-central South America (the Negro, Paraguay, Paraná, and Uruguay Rivers) for the period 1911–93 are analyzed. Application of the multitaper method shows that the following features are significant at the 95% level: 1) a nonlinear trend, 2) a near-decadal component, and 3) interannual peaks with ENSO timescales. The trend and near-decadal components are most marked in the two more central rivers, the Paraguay and Paraná, with ENSO timescale variability most pronounced in the Negro and Uruguay rivers in the southeast. Composites of SST are made for each of the statistically significant oscillatory components of river flow, by reconstructing each component using singular spectrum analysis. These composites confirm the influence of ENSO on the streamflow variability of the Negro and Uruguay Rivers, with El Niño associated with enhanced streamflow. On the decadal timescale, high river runoff is associated with anomalously cool SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic. A very similar near-decadal oscillation in SST over this region is identified separately from a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of gridded annual mean SSTs. The near-decadal component of the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers is strongest in the austral summer.
