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- Author or Editor: Charles A. Doswell III x
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Abstract
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Abstract
The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing understanding of human cognition as it relates to making decisions is entirely inapplicable to weather forecasters. Accordingly, some aspects of cognition and decision making are reviewed and considered in terms of how they apply to human weather forecasters, including biases introduced by heuristics. Considerable insight into human forecasting could be gained by applying available studies of the cognitive psychology of decision making. What few studies exist that have used weather forecasters as subjects suggest that further work might well be productive in terms of helping to guide the improvement of weather forecasts by humans. It is concluded that a multidisciplinary approach, involving disciplines outside of meteorology, needs to be developed and supported if there is to be a future role for humans in forecasting the weather.
Abstract
The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing understanding of human cognition as it relates to making decisions is entirely inapplicable to weather forecasters. Accordingly, some aspects of cognition and decision making are reviewed and considered in terms of how they apply to human weather forecasters, including biases introduced by heuristics. Considerable insight into human forecasting could be gained by applying available studies of the cognitive psychology of decision making. What few studies exist that have used weather forecasters as subjects suggest that further work might well be productive in terms of helping to guide the improvement of weather forecasts by humans. It is concluded that a multidisciplinary approach, involving disciplines outside of meteorology, needs to be developed and supported if there is to be a future role for humans in forecasting the weather.
Abstract
A method is developed for designing specific filtering properties into a weighted-average interpolation scheme. Both spatial and temporal filtering are simultaneously accomplished, resulting in good time continuity as well as smooth spatial patterns. Both low-pass and band-pass filters are shown, with the band-pass results designed to emphasize details of the fields at the resolution limits for conventional surface data. These filters are applied to surface data on a severe thunderstorm day in Oklahoma. Results suggest that divergence fields calculated from the filtered data are well correlated with severe weather events, which develop only after several hours of preexisting moisture convergence.
Abstract
A method is developed for designing specific filtering properties into a weighted-average interpolation scheme. Both spatial and temporal filtering are simultaneously accomplished, resulting in good time continuity as well as smooth spatial patterns. Both low-pass and band-pass filters are shown, with the band-pass results designed to emphasize details of the fields at the resolution limits for conventional surface data. These filters are applied to surface data on a severe thunderstorm day in Oklahoma. Results suggest that divergence fields calculated from the filtered data are well correlated with severe weather events, which develop only after several hours of preexisting moisture convergence.
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An idealized model of a vortex interacting with an initially straight frontal zone is developed. The nondivergent vortex flow is a smoothly varying analog to a Rankine Combined Vortex. Local advection and frontogenesis are calculated analytically at the initial time and used to approximate the temporal evolution of the system, during its early phases. Intuition suggests that the maximum deformation of the frontal zone should occur near the radius of maximum winds. Results confirm our intuition, but also provide insight into how frontogenesis proceeds in a real vortex. The calculations yield patterns surprisingly similar to observations of vortex interactions with zones of high gradient on several scales, and seem to explain the compelling similarities between observed vortex phenomena on widely different scales.
Abstract
An idealized model of a vortex interacting with an initially straight frontal zone is developed. The nondivergent vortex flow is a smoothly varying analog to a Rankine Combined Vortex. Local advection and frontogenesis are calculated analytically at the initial time and used to approximate the temporal evolution of the system, during its early phases. Intuition suggests that the maximum deformation of the frontal zone should occur near the radius of maximum winds. Results confirm our intuition, but also provide insight into how frontogenesis proceeds in a real vortex. The calculations yield patterns surprisingly similar to observations of vortex interactions with zones of high gradient on several scales, and seem to explain the compelling similarities between observed vortex phenomena on widely different scales.
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