Abstract

The existence of African easterly waves (AEWs) north of the African easterly jet (AEJ) core with maximum amplitude at low levels has been confirmed and clarified using radiosonde data and the U.K. Meteorological Office global model analysis from the hurricane season of 1995. At Bamako (12.5°N, 8.0°W) the AEWs were characterized mainly by maximum amplitudes at the level of the AEJ (around 700 mb), whereas at Dakar (14.7°N, 17.5°W) the waves were characterized by maxima between 850 and 950 mb. The low-level waves to the north of the AEJ arise in association with baroclinic interactions between the negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients in the jet core and the positive low-level gradient of potential temperature, θ, enhanced by the presence of low-static-stability air north of the AEJ. These waves follow the positive meridional θ gradients over northern Africa in contrast to the jet-level AEWs that follow the meridional PV gradients at the level of the AEJ. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is strong coherence between the low-level AEWs and the well-known cold core AEWs that propagate south of the jet, confirming that AEWs are associated with a combined barotropic–baroclinic instability mechanism.

Abstract

Spatiotemporal patterns of tropics-wide vertical shear variability are extracted after separating a 58-yr data record into high-frequency (HF, periods of 1.5–8 yr) and low-frequency (LF, periods greater than 8 yr) components. The HF vertical shear variability is dominated by circulation anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The LF variability is primarily contained in two multidecadal patterns and a near-decadal pattern.

The multidecadal modes are strongest within the tropical Atlantic and are correlated with Sahel precipitation and interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results suggest that the multidecadal variability of vertical shear over the Atlantic is linked to atmospheric circulation anomalies forced by the variability in Sahel precipitation. The decadal mode is strongest within the central Pacific and is correlated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like SST anomalies. The circulation associated with this anomalous shear pattern appears to be consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO-related diabatic heating anomaly over the central Pacific.

The relationship between vertical shear and seasonal tropical cyclone activity, as defined by the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), is examined for the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western Pacific Oceans. The results show that global modes of vertical shear and seasonal average ACE are not consistently related in all three regions. It is only in the Atlantic Ocean that seasonal ACE is most consistently limited by vertical shear. This calls into question the utility of vertical shear as an independent predictor of seasonal tropical cyclone activity, particularly over the western Pacific Ocean.

Abstract

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15°N is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15°N is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15°N over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10°N, 10°W), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release.

Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10° and 15°N, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

Abstract

Analysis of ECMWF reanalyses and operational analyses covering the period between 1979–98 has confirmed that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is strongly and negatively correlated with the observed vertical wind shear present in the main development region (MDR) between July and September. In 1983 and 1995, the least active and most active tropical cyclone years, respectively, anomalous shear was shown to be present in spring and to persist throughout each of the tropical cyclone seasons. While monitoring of MDR shear is recommended for highlighting the risk of such extreme events, the springtime MDR shear is not generally a good indicator of shear in the summer months.

Seasonal forecasts of MDR shear made with the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) atmospheric GCM (AGCM) and observed SSTs for the years 1979–97 have been analyzed. The model possesses potential skill for predicting the MDR shear as determined by a consideration of the ensemble mean shear variability and an evaluation of the relative operating characteristics (ROC). The ROC analysis indicates high probabilistic skill, in particular for anomalously low shear events. Analysis of seasonal forecasts of MDR shear made with the UKMO AGCM with persisted SST anomalies for the years 1979–97 was also performed. Skill in predicting MDR shear is reduced but still significant. ROC analysis indicates probabilistic skill for the anomalously low shear events, which may be useful for some applications.

Based on this work, the authors conclude that a dynamical approach to the seasonal forecasting of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, which combines predicted MDR shear with a statistical model should be developed.

Abstract

African easterly waves (AEWs) are identified in numerical model analyses using an objective technique based on the 700-hPa streamfunction field. This method has been developed to (i) reduce the amount of manual data interpretation, (ii) reduce the likelihood of unrelated phenomena being identified as AEWs, and (iii) facilitate completely objective comparisons between AEWs with different structures on multiple scales, in order to describe their variability. Results show this method performs well when compared to methods of AEW identification used in previous studies. The objective technique is used to analyze all AEWs that originated over tropical North Africa during July–September (JAS) 2004. Results indicate that the “average” AEW in this period bears a close resemblance to composite structures from previous research. However, there is marked variability in the characteristics and ultimate fate of AEWs. Most AEWs of JAS 2004 are first identified east of the Greenwich meridian and develop as they move westward. Mature structures over the African continent varied, ranging from isolated potential vorticity maxima confined equatorward of the objectively defined African easterly jet to broad cross-jet structures symptomatic of both baroclinic and barotropic growth. As many as 80% of the cases fell into the second category. After leaving the West African coast, 45% of the AEWs in JAS 2004 were associated with tropical cyclogenesis in either the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean basins.

Abstract

The life cycle of an intense African easterly wave (AEW) over the African continent is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses, Meteosat satellite images, and synoptic observations. This system, the strongest AEW of 2000, can be tracked from central North Africa into the eastern Atlantic Ocean, where it is associated with the genesis of Hurricane Alberto. Synoptic analysis of the kinematic and thermodynamic fields is supplemented by analysis of potential vorticity (PV), allowing exploration at the role of multiple scales in the evolution of this AEW.

The authors’ analysis promotes the division of the AEW life cycle into three distinctive phases. (i) Initiation: The AEW development is preceded by a large convective event composed of several mesoscale convective systems over elevated terrain in Sudan. This convection provides a forcing on the baroclinically and barotropically unstable state that exists over tropical North Africa. (ii) Baroclinic growth: A low-level warm anomaly, generated close to the initial convection, interacts with a midtropospheric strip of high PV that exists on the cyclonic shear side of the African easterly jet, which is consistent with baroclinic growth. This interaction is reinforced by the generation of subsynoptic-scale PV anomalies by deep convection that is embedded within the baroclinic AEW structure. (iii) West coast development: Near the West African coast, the baroclinic structure weakens, but convection is maintained. The midtropospheric PV anomalies embedded within the AEW merge with one another and with PV anomalies that are generated by convection over topography ahead of the system. These mergers result in the production of a significant PV feature that leaves the West African coast and rapidly undergoes tropical cyclogenesis.

Abstract

Using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the modulation of convection by African easterly waves (AEWs) is investigated over regions of the east Atlantic and tropical Africa. To explain the modulation of convection, the large-scale environment (lift, moisture, conditional instability, and shear) is also examined as a function of AEW phase in each region.

Over semiarid portions of tropical Africa, unconditional rain rates are greatest in the northerly phase of AEWs due to the strong adiabatic forcing for ascent. Along the Guinea Coast, the western coast of Africa, and over the east Atlantic—where forcing for ascent is weaker—rainfall is shifted toward the trough where the air is moist. Significant contrasts in the characteristics of convection as a function of AEW phase—comparable in magnitude to regional contrasts—are also observed. In all regions, large and high echo-top convective systems are more sensitive to AEW phase than small and low echo-top systems. In semiarid regions, deep convection and large high echo-top convective systems account for a large fraction of the rainfall in the ridge and northerlies. Stratiform and small low echo-top convective systems dominate in the trough and southerlies. Convective system height and conditional rain rates increase with conditional instability and system sizes may increase with shear. Over the east Atlantic, stratiform fractions and convective system sizes and echo-top heights are greatest in the trough while the ridge is dominated by shallow convection. This is primarily related to the presence of moist air in the trough and dry air in the ridge.

Abstract

The role of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) on African easterly wave (AEW) activity is explored over tropical Africa during boreal summer. Examination of the pre-Alberto AEW in 2000 highlights the observation that the convective trigger for the initiation of the AEW was generated by a strong CCKW and that the subsequent intensification of the AEW at the West African coast was associated with a second CCKW. Composite analysis shows that, generally, AEW activity increases during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of strong CCKWs. The increase in AEW activity is consistent with convective triggering at the leading edge of the convective phase of the CCKW. This convective triggering occurs in a region where the background low-level easterly vertical wind shear is increased by the CCKW. As the AEW propagates westward through the convectively active phase of the CCKW, it can develop in an environment favorable for convection. It is also shown that this phase of the CCKW is characterized by enhanced meridional vorticity gradients in the core of the African easterly jet suggesting that enhanced mixed barotropic–baroclinic growth may also be responsible for enhanced AEW activity there.

Abstract

African easterly waves (AEWs) are objectively tracked between West Africa and the tropical Atlantic based on the CFSRv2 data for 1979 to 2012. The characteristics of the troughs of the AEWs at the West African coast are explored and related to whether they favor tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic. A logistic regression model was used to determine the optimum combination of predictors that relate AEW characteristics to tropical cyclogenesis. The most skillful model for genesis over the eastern Atlantic consisted of four variables of the AEWs dynamics over the coastal region and the absolute number of days from the peak in the AEW season. Using this diagnostic an equal number of favorable developing and nondeveloping waves were compared through a composite difference analysis. Favorable developing waves had significantly higher moisture content in the lower troposphere to the northwest of the trough as they exited the West African coast compared to favorable nondeveloping waves. Trajectory analysis for all the waves revealed that as the AEWs transition over the West African coast the troughs are typically open to the environment ahead and to the northwest of the trough. For developing waves this means that moist air is ingested into the lower levels of the system, while for nondeveloping waves dry air is ingested. At this point in the AEW life cycle this difference may be fundamental in determining whether a favorable wave can develop or not.

Abstract

To examine the dynamical role of convection in African easterly wave (AEW) life cycles the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the evolution of a single AEW from September 2004. The model simulations are validated against corresponding numerical weather prediction analyses and the mean fields closely resemble composite structures from previous studies. A potential vorticity (PV) thinking approach is used to highlight the interactions between dynamics and convection.

Organized deep convection embedded within the AEW has a large contribution to the synoptic-scale mean PV and energetics of the AEW. The PV tendency is maximized in the lower troposphere, consistent with the vertical gradient in diabatic heating rates in the areas of convection. By examining terms in the Lorenz energy cycle, it is shown that diabatic heating associated with convection is as important as adiabatic energy conversion in producing eddy available potential energy of the synoptic AEW, implying that AEWs are best described as hybrid adiabatic and diabatic structures. The net effect of convection is succinctly described using a simulation whereby the parameterizations associated with convection are switched off at the midpoint of the model run. This perturbation experiment shows that, although the AEW continues to propagate westward with a similar phase speed, the net PV value continually weakens with time. This result proves that convection is vital for the maintenance of the AEW as it propagates across West Africa and suggests that without active convection the synoptic AEW cannot persist for an extended length of time.