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- Author or Editor: Christopher J. Merchant x
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Abstract
The presence of stratospheric aerosol can bias the results of infrared satellite retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) and total precipitable water (TPW). In the case of linear SST retrieval using the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR), on the ESA European remote-sensing satellites, constant coefficients can be found that give negligible bias (less than 0.1 K) over a wide range of aerosol amount (11-μm optical thickness from 0.0 to 0.022). For TPW retrieval, in contrast, the biases associated with stratospheric aerosol are less satisfactory (2 kg m−2 or greater across a range of 11-μm optical thickness of 0.0–0.01). However, the authors show how to find optimal aerosol-dependent retrieval coefficients for any stratospheric aerosol distribution from knowledge of the mean and variance of that aerosol distribution. Examples of SST and TPW retrieval using simulated ATSR brightness temperature data are given.
Abstract
The presence of stratospheric aerosol can bias the results of infrared satellite retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) and total precipitable water (TPW). In the case of linear SST retrieval using the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR), on the ESA European remote-sensing satellites, constant coefficients can be found that give negligible bias (less than 0.1 K) over a wide range of aerosol amount (11-μm optical thickness from 0.0 to 0.022). For TPW retrieval, in contrast, the biases associated with stratospheric aerosol are less satisfactory (2 kg m−2 or greater across a range of 11-μm optical thickness of 0.0–0.01). However, the authors show how to find optimal aerosol-dependent retrieval coefficients for any stratospheric aerosol distribution from knowledge of the mean and variance of that aerosol distribution. Examples of SST and TPW retrieval using simulated ATSR brightness temperature data are given.
Abstract
The retrieval (estimation) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from space-based infrared observations is increasingly performed using retrieval coefficients derived from radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures (BTs). Typically, an estimate of SST is formed from a weighted combination of BTs at a few wavelengths, plus an offset. This paper addresses two questions about the radiative transfer modeling approach to deriving these weighting and offset coefficients. How precisely specified do the coefficients need to be in order to obtain the required SST accuracy (e.g., scatter <0.3 K in week-average SST, bias <0.1 K)? And how precisely is it actually possible to specify them using current forward models? The conclusions are that weighting coefficients can be obtained with adequate precision, while the offset coefficient will often require an empirical adjustment of the order of a few tenths of a kelvin against validation data. Thus, a rational approach to defining retrieval coefficients is one of radiative transfer modeling followed by offset adjustment. The need for this approach is illustrated from experience in defining SST retrieval schemes for operational meteorological satellites. A strategy is described for obtaining the required offset adjustment, and the paper highlights some of the subtler aspects involved with reference to the example of SST retrievals from the imager on the geostationary satellite GOES-8.
Abstract
The retrieval (estimation) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from space-based infrared observations is increasingly performed using retrieval coefficients derived from radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures (BTs). Typically, an estimate of SST is formed from a weighted combination of BTs at a few wavelengths, plus an offset. This paper addresses two questions about the radiative transfer modeling approach to deriving these weighting and offset coefficients. How precisely specified do the coefficients need to be in order to obtain the required SST accuracy (e.g., scatter <0.3 K in week-average SST, bias <0.1 K)? And how precisely is it actually possible to specify them using current forward models? The conclusions are that weighting coefficients can be obtained with adequate precision, while the offset coefficient will often require an empirical adjustment of the order of a few tenths of a kelvin against validation data. Thus, a rational approach to defining retrieval coefficients is one of radiative transfer modeling followed by offset adjustment. The need for this approach is illustrated from experience in defining SST retrieval schemes for operational meteorological satellites. A strategy is described for obtaining the required offset adjustment, and the paper highlights some of the subtler aspects involved with reference to the example of SST retrievals from the imager on the geostationary satellite GOES-8.
Abstract
Time series of global and regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice was investigated using reanalysis data as a test bed. Techniques that interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than noninterpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies, and simple kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Noninterpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979–2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.
Abstract
Time series of global and regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice was investigated using reanalysis data as a test bed. Techniques that interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than noninterpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies, and simple kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Noninterpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979–2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.
Abstract
Considerable effort is presently being devoted to producing high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analyses with a goal of spatial grid resolutions as low as 1 km. Because grid resolution is not the same as feature resolution, a method is needed to objectively determine the resolution capability and accuracy of SST analysis products. Ocean model SST fields are used in this study as simulated “true” SST data and subsampled based on actual infrared and microwave satellite data coverage. The subsampled data are used to simulate sampling errors due to missing data. Two different SST analyses are considered and run using both the full and the subsampled model SST fields, with and without additional noise. The results are compared as a function of spatial scales of variability using wavenumber auto- and cross-spectral analysis.
The spectral variance at high wavenumbers (smallest wavelengths) is shown to be attenuated relative to the true SST because of smoothing that is inherent to both analysis procedures. Comparisons of the two analyses (both having grid sizes of roughly 
Abstract
Considerable effort is presently being devoted to producing high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analyses with a goal of spatial grid resolutions as low as 1 km. Because grid resolution is not the same as feature resolution, a method is needed to objectively determine the resolution capability and accuracy of SST analysis products. Ocean model SST fields are used in this study as simulated “true” SST data and subsampled based on actual infrared and microwave satellite data coverage. The subsampled data are used to simulate sampling errors due to missing data. Two different SST analyses are considered and run using both the full and the subsampled model SST fields, with and without additional noise. The results are compared as a function of spatial scales of variability using wavenumber auto- and cross-spectral analysis.
The spectral variance at high wavenumbers (smallest wavelengths) is shown to be attenuated relative to the true SST because of smoothing that is inherent to both analysis procedures. Comparisons of the two analyses (both having grid sizes of roughly
Abstract
A joint effort between the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) has been dedicated to an intercomparison study of eight global gap-free sea surface temperature (SST) products to assess their accurate representation of the SST relevant to climate analysis. In general, all SST products show consistent spatial patterns and temporal variability during the overlapping time period (2003–18). The main differences between each product are located in the western boundary current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions. Linear trends display consistent SST spatial patterns among all products and exhibit a strong warming trend from 2012 to 2018 with the Pacific Ocean basin as the main contributor. The SST discrepancy between all SST products is very small compared to the significant warming trend. Spatial power spectral density shows that the interpolation into 1° spatial resolution has negligible impacts on our results. The global mean SST time series reveals larger differences among all SST products during the early period of the satellite era (1982–2002) when there were fewer observations, indicating that the observation frequency is the main constraint of the SST climatology. The maturity matrix scores, which present the maturity of each product in terms of documentation, storage, and dissemination but not the scientific quality, demonstrate that ESA-CCI and OSTIA SST are well documented for users’ convenience. Improvements could be made for MGDSST and BoM SST. Finally, we have recommended that these SST products can be used for fundamental climate applications and climate studies (e.g., El Niño).
Abstract
A joint effort between the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) has been dedicated to an intercomparison study of eight global gap-free sea surface temperature (SST) products to assess their accurate representation of the SST relevant to climate analysis. In general, all SST products show consistent spatial patterns and temporal variability during the overlapping time period (2003–18). The main differences between each product are located in the western boundary current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions. Linear trends display consistent SST spatial patterns among all products and exhibit a strong warming trend from 2012 to 2018 with the Pacific Ocean basin as the main contributor. The SST discrepancy between all SST products is very small compared to the significant warming trend. Spatial power spectral density shows that the interpolation into 1° spatial resolution has negligible impacts on our results. The global mean SST time series reveals larger differences among all SST products during the early period of the satellite era (1982–2002) when there were fewer observations, indicating that the observation frequency is the main constraint of the SST climatology. The maturity matrix scores, which present the maturity of each product in terms of documentation, storage, and dissemination but not the scientific quality, demonstrate that ESA-CCI and OSTIA SST are well documented for users’ convenience. Improvements could be made for MGDSST and BoM SST. Finally, we have recommended that these SST products can be used for fundamental climate applications and climate studies (e.g., El Niño).
Abstract
Global surface temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated variations in the observed rate of surface temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface temperature change and provide higher-quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications.
Bias adjustments have been based on either physical models of the observing processes or the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference dataset, such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and time scales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method.
New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges.
Abstract
Global surface temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated variations in the observed rate of surface temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface temperature change and provide higher-quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications.
Bias adjustments have been based on either physical models of the observing processes or the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference dataset, such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and time scales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method.
New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges.
Abstract
Climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) derived from satellite instruments help to characterize the main components of the Earth system, to identify the state and evolution of its processes, and to constrain the budgets of key cycles of water, carbon, and energy. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the derivation of CDRs for 21 GCOS ECVs. The combined use of multiple ECVs for Earth system science applications requires consistency between and across their respective CDRs. As a comprehensive definition for multi-ECV consistency is missing so far, this study proposes defining consistency on three levels: 1) consistency in format and metadata to facilitate their synergetic use (technical level); 2) consistency in assumptions and auxiliary datasets to minimize incompatibilities among datasets (retrieval level); and 3) consistency between combined or multiple CDRs within their estimated uncertainties or physical constraints (scientific level). Analyzing consistency between CDRs of multiple quantities is a challenging task and requires coordination between different observational communities, which is facilitated by the CCI program. The interdependencies of the satellite-based CDRs derived within the CCI program are analyzed to identify where consistency considerations are most important. The study also summarizes measures taken in CCI to ensure consistency on the technical level, and develops a concept for assessing consistency on the retrieval and scientific levels in the light of underlying physical knowledge. Finally, this study presents the current status of consistency between the CCI CDRs and future efforts needed to further improve it.
Abstract
Climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) derived from satellite instruments help to characterize the main components of the Earth system, to identify the state and evolution of its processes, and to constrain the budgets of key cycles of water, carbon, and energy. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the derivation of CDRs for 21 GCOS ECVs. The combined use of multiple ECVs for Earth system science applications requires consistency between and across their respective CDRs. As a comprehensive definition for multi-ECV consistency is missing so far, this study proposes defining consistency on three levels: 1) consistency in format and metadata to facilitate their synergetic use (technical level); 2) consistency in assumptions and auxiliary datasets to minimize incompatibilities among datasets (retrieval level); and 3) consistency between combined or multiple CDRs within their estimated uncertainties or physical constraints (scientific level). Analyzing consistency between CDRs of multiple quantities is a challenging task and requires coordination between different observational communities, which is facilitated by the CCI program. The interdependencies of the satellite-based CDRs derived within the CCI program are analyzed to identify where consistency considerations are most important. The study also summarizes measures taken in CCI to ensure consistency on the technical level, and develops a concept for assessing consistency on the retrieval and scientific levels in the light of underlying physical knowledge. Finally, this study presents the current status of consistency between the CCI CDRs and future efforts needed to further improve it.
Abstract
Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways, but daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. Therefore, a global daily picture cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone and needs to incorporate estimates from satellite retrievals. This article presents the science developed in the EU Horizon 2020–funded EUSTACE project (2015–19, www.eustaceproject.org) to produce global and European multidecadal ensembles of daily analyses of surface air temperature complementary to those from dynamical reanalyses, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Relationships between surface air temperature measurements and satellite-based estimates of surface skin temperature over all surfaces of Earth (land, ocean, ice, and lakes) are quantified. Information contained in the satellite retrievals then helps to estimate air temperature and create global fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place; this needs efficient statistical analysis methods to cope with the considerable data volumes. Daily fields are presented as ensembles to enable propagation of uncertainties through applications. Estimated temperatures and their uncertainties are evaluated against independent measurements and other surface temperature datasets. Achievements in the EUSTACE project have also included fundamental preparatory work useful to others, for example, gathering user requirements, identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations, carefully quantifying uncertainties in satellite skin and air temperature estimates, exploring the interaction between air temperature and lakes, developing statistical models relevant to non-Gaussian variables, and methods for efficient computation.
Abstract
Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways, but daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. Therefore, a global daily picture cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone and needs to incorporate estimates from satellite retrievals. This article presents the science developed in the EU Horizon 2020–funded EUSTACE project (2015–19, www.eustaceproject.org) to produce global and European multidecadal ensembles of daily analyses of surface air temperature complementary to those from dynamical reanalyses, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Relationships between surface air temperature measurements and satellite-based estimates of surface skin temperature over all surfaces of Earth (land, ocean, ice, and lakes) are quantified. Information contained in the satellite retrievals then helps to estimate air temperature and create global fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place; this needs efficient statistical analysis methods to cope with the considerable data volumes. Daily fields are presented as ensembles to enable propagation of uncertainties through applications. Estimated temperatures and their uncertainties are evaluated against independent measurements and other surface temperature datasets. Achievements in the EUSTACE project have also included fundamental preparatory work useful to others, for example, gathering user requirements, identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations, carefully quantifying uncertainties in satellite skin and air temperature estimates, exploring the interaction between air temperature and lakes, developing statistical models relevant to non-Gaussian variables, and methods for efficient computation.
