Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for

  • Author or Editor: Claas Teichmann x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Tomáš Púčik
,
Pieter Groenemeijer
,
Anja T. Rädler
,
Lars Tijssen
,
Grigory Nikulin
,
Andreas F. Prein
,
Erik van Meijgaard
,
Rowan Fealy
,
Daniela Jacob
, and
Claas Teichmann

Abstract

The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index ≤ −2) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (≥15 m s−1) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, and model precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25% range are forecast for most regions. A large intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

Full access
Filippo Giorgi
,
Erika Coppola
,
Daniela Jacob
,
Claas Teichmann
,
Sabina Abba Omar
,
Moetasim Ashfaq
,
Nikolina Ban
,
Katharina Bülow
,
Melissa Bukovsky
,
Lars Buntemeyer
,
Tereza Cavazos
,
James Ciarlo`
,
Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha
,
Sushant Das
,
Fabio di Sante
,
Jason P. Evans
,
Xuejie Gao
,
Graziano Giuliani
,
Russell H. Glazer
,
Peter Hoffmann
,
Eun-Soon Im
,
Gaby Langendijk
,
Ludwig Lierhammer
,
Marta Llopart
,
Sebastial Mueller
,
Rosa Luna-Nino
,
Rita Nogherotto
,
Emanuela Pichelli
,
Francesca Raffaele
,
Michelle Reboita
,
Diana Rechid
,
Armelle Remedio
,
Thomas Remke
,
Windmanagda Sawadogo
,
Kevin Sieck
,
José Abraham Torres-Alavez
, and
Torsten Weber

Abstract

We describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ∼25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, and energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

Full access