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A. H. Manson, J. B. Gregory, and D. G. Stephenson

Abstract

Measurements of winds (60–110 km) for Saskatoon, Canada (52N, 107W), have been obtained from a partial reflection radiowave system. Closely spaced atmospheric soundings (12 per hour) for heights between 51–117 km with 3–km height resolution, were made between August 1972 and September 1973. The median of the wind profiles for a given hour has been identified mainly as the prevailing wind, and the irregular components from each profile as internal atmospheric gravity waves (30<τ<60 min, 12<λ<30 km). The amplitudes and shears of the irregular winds have their largest values in winter. A diurnal variation has been found, showing a minimum in amplitude and shear values near noon for all seasons; this variation is especially noticeable above 90 km.

Comparisons of seasonal variations in the prevailing zonal and meridional winds, with the amplitudes of the irregular winds, suggest interactions involving critical layers and momentum transfer. Tropospheric weather systems are considered in relation to the gravity wave amplitudes.

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A. H. Manson, J. B. Gregory, and D. G. Stephenson

Abstract

The results of radiowave, partial reflection drift (wind) measurements from 60–110 km, for the years 1973–74, at Saskatoon, Canada (52°N, 107°W), are presented. Intensive soundings (12 profiles per hour) have provided hourly, weekly and monthly profiles for the prevailing winds and also for the amplitudes of internal gravity (I.G.) waves (τ≈60 min).

A relationship between the heights of reversals of the mean flow and of maxima in the I. G. wave amplitude profiles is demonstrated for 1973 and 1974. Hourly changes in the flow are also shown to be consistent with the effects of longer period (τ≈120 min) I. G. waves and/or momentum deposition by I. G. waves (τ≲60 min). It is shown that gravity waves are a major contribution to the dynamical and energetic balance of the lower thermosphere (80–110 km).

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R. J. Stening, C. E. Meek, A. H. Manson, and D. G. Stephenson

Abstract

The results of partial reflection radiowave wind observations (60-110 km) for four 10-day intervals in 1976 at Saskatoon, Canada (52°N, 107°W), are presented. A harmonic analysis has been applied to data for the four seasons: the means of the semi-diurnal and diurnal components are in reasonable agreement with other measurements at similar latitudes. There are large day-to-day variations in the amplitudes and phases of the tides. The seasonal variations of mean winds (Gregory and Manson, 1975a) are not appreciably altered by the removal of tidal components. Gravity waves with periods ∼5 h are identified and the periods are found to vary with the mean background wind. The mechanism involved is not understood. An oscillation with a 2-day period is found in August and a similar oscillation is seen in stratospheric temperatures near 20 km.

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J. B. Gregory, C. E. Meek, A. H. Manson, and D. G. Stephenson

Abstract

The drifts technique derives wind vectors from correlation analysis of spatial and temporal sequences of radiowave field strength at ground level. The paper examines the bases of the analysis, and presents a new method (simplified Gaussian correlation analysis) suitable for large-scale processing. Evaluation of the quality of derived winds vectors by means of internal consistency measurements is described. Methods of editing are surveyed, and a new method, based on the normalized time discrepancy, is demonstrated. Methods for securing maximum yield of winds vectors from raw data are described. The use of microprocessors for immediate data processing is outlined. Comparisons of winds obtained by the partial reflection technique with other experimental techniques are examined.

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A. H. Manson, J. B. Gregory, C. E. Meek, and D. G. Stephenson

Abstract

The behavior of the daily noon winds at 52°N, 107° W (Saskatoon, Canada) at altitudes from 52 km to about 110 km are studied for the interval September 1974–Apzil 1975. These data are compared with ROCOB temperatures and winds (≲55 km) for Churchill (94°N, 59°W). The thermal wind equation and running cross-correlation analysis are used to demonstrate the seasonal variations of the meridional temperature gradient, and of coupling, within the stratosphere, mesosphere and thermosphere. The effects of the stratospheric warming of January 1975 are also investigated. The correlations were dominated by this event, and show that coupling occurred between the stratosphere (20–30 mb) and mesosphere/thermosphere (≲100 km) during the first half of January. Spectral analysis for two intervals before and after the stratwarm show that coupling was more significant during the late winter; periods near 2–3, 4–5 and ≳20 days were involved.

Comparisons between daily mean winds and daily noon winds show that up to 100 km the daily variations are well represented by the noon data; above 100 km the daily variations are less reliable but trends are well represented by the noon data.

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C. A. S. Coelho, D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and G. J. van Oldenborgh

Abstract

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated (i.e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Niño or La Niña years rather than in neutral years.

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Alan J. Hewitt, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris D. Jones, Eddy S. Robertson, Andy J. Wiltshire, Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, and Stan Yip

Abstract

The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth system models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times. For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between representative concentration pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modeled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes; thus, one can be more confident in linking different future socioeconomic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The contribution of internal variance is negligible for ocean fluxes and small for land fluxes, indicating that there is little dependence on the initial conditions. The apparent agreement in atmosphere–ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modeled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxes.

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Tim Li, Abdallah Abida, Laura S. Aldeco, Eric J. Alfaro, Lincoln M. Alves, Jorge A. Amador, B. Andrade, Julian Baez, M. Yu. Bardin, Endalkachew Bekele, Eric Broedel, Brandon Bukunt, Blanca Calderón, Jayaka D. Campbell, Diego A. Campos Diaz, Gilma Carvajal, Elise Chandler, Vincent. Y. S. Cheng, Chulwoon Choi, Leonardo A. Clarke, Kris Correa, Felipe Costa, A. P. Cunha, Mesut Demircan, R. Dhurmea, Eliecer A. Díaz, M. ElKharrim, Bantwale D. Enyew, Jhan C. Espinoza, Amin Fazl-Kazem, Nava Fedaeff, Z. Feng, Chris Fenimore, S. D. Francis, Karin Gleason, Charles “Chip” P. Guard, Indra Gustari, S. Hagos, Richard R. Heim Jr., Rafael Hernández, Hugo G. Hidalgo, J. A. Ijampy, Annie C. Joseph, Guillaume Jumaux, Khadija Kabidi, Johannes W. Kaiser, Pierre-Honore Kamsu-Tamo, John Kennedy, Valentina Khan, Mai Van Khiem, Khatuna Kokosadze, Natalia N. Korshunova, Andries C. Kruger, Nato Kutaladze, L. Labbé, Mónika Lakatos, Hoang Phuc Lam, Mark A. Lander, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, T. C. Lee, Kinson H. Y. Leung, Andrew D. Magee, Jostein Mamen, José A. Marengo, Dora Marín, Charlotte McBride, Lia Megrelidze, Noelia Misevicius, Y. Mochizuki, Aurel Moise, Jorge Molina-Carpio, Natali Mora, Awatif E. Mostafa, uan José Nieto, Lamjav Oyunjargal, Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez, Maria Asuncion Pastor Saavedra, Uwe Pfeifroth, David Phillips, Madhavan Rajeevan, Andrea M. Ramos, Jayashree V. Revadekar, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Ernesto Rodriguez Camino, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado, Josyane Ronchail, Benjamin Rösner, Roberto Salinas, Amal Sayouri, Carl J. Schreck III, Serhat Sensoy, A. Shimpo, Fatou Sima, Adam Smith, Jacqueline Spence, Sandra Spillane, Arne Spitzer, A. K. Srivastava, José L. Stella, Kimberly A. Stephenson, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Michael A. Taylor, Wassila Thiaw, Skie Tobin, Dennis Todey, Katja Trachte, Adrian R. Trotman, Gerard van der Schrier, Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck, Ahad Vazifeh, José Vicencio Veloso, Wei Wang, Fei Xin, Peiqun Zhang, Zhiwei Zhu, and Jonas Zucule
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Peter Bissolli, Catherine Ganter, Tim Li, Ademe Mekonnen, Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, Eric J. Alfaro, Lincoln M. Alves, Jorge A. Amador, B. Andrade, Francisco Argeñalso, P. Asgarzadeh, Julian Baez, Reuben Barakiza, M. Yu. Bardin, Mikhail Bardin, Oliver Bochníček, Brandon Bukunt, Blanca Calderón, Jayaka D. Campbell, Elise Chandler, Ladislaus Chang’a, Vincent Y. S. Cheng, Leonardo A. Clarke, Kris Correa, Catalina Cortés, Felipe Costa, A.P.M.A. Cunha, Mesut Demircan, K. R. Dhurmea, A. Diawara, Sarah Diouf, Dashkhuu Dulamsuren, M. ElKharrim, Jhan-Carlo Espinoza, A. Fazl-Kazem, Chris Fenimore, Steven Fuhrman, Karin Gleason, Charles “Chip” P. Guard, Samson Hagos, Mizuki Hanafusa, H. R. Hasannezhad, Richard R. Heim Jr., Hugo G. Hidalgo, J. A. Ijampy, Gyo Soon Im, Annie C. Joseph, G. Jumaux, K. R. Kabidi, P-H. Kamsu-Tamo, John Kennedy, Valentina Khan, Mai Van Khiem, Philemon King’uza, Natalia N. Korshunova, A. C. Kruger, Hoang Phuc Lam, Mark A. Lander, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Tsz-Cheung Lee, Kinson H. Y. Leung, Gregor Macara, Jostein Mamen, José A. Marengo, Charlotte McBride, Noelia Misevicius, Aurel Moise, Jorge Molina-Carpio, Natali Mora, Awatif E. Mostafa, Habiba Mtongori, Charles Mutai, O. Ndiaye, Juan José Nieto, Latifa Nyembo, Patricia Nying’uro, Xiao Pan, Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez, David Phillips, Brad Pugh, Madhavan Rajeevan, M. L. Rakotonirina, Andrea M. Ramos, M. Robjhon, Camino Rodriguez, Guisado Rodriguez, Josyane Ronchail, Benjamin Rösner, Roberto Salinas, Hirotaka Sato, Hitoshi Sato, Amal Sayouri, Joseph Sebaziga, Serhat Sensoy, Sandra Spillane, Katja Trachte, Gerard van der Schrier, F. Sima, Adam Smith, Jacqueline M. Spence, O. P. Sreejith, A. K. Srivastava, José L. Stella, Kimberly A. Stephenson, Tannecia S. Stephenson, S. Supari, Sahar Tajbakhsh-Mosalman, Gerard Tamar, Michael A. Taylor, Asaminew Teshome, Wassila M. Thiaw, Skie Tobin, Adrian R. Trotman, Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck, A. Vazifeh, Shunya Wakamatsu, Wei Wang, Fei Xin, F. Zeng, Peiqun Zhang, and Zhiwei Zhu
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