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E. M. Blyth and A. J. Dolman

Abstract

A dual-source model that solves the energy balance over vegetation and soil separately can be inverted to obtain the roughness length for heat z 0h of a single-source model. Model parameters for the dual-source model were taken from previous analysis of data from a sparse canopy in semiarid terrain. In these circumstances, the value of z 0h, is shown to be dependent on the humidity deficit, the available energy, the vegetation fraction, and the surface resistance of the soil and the vegetation.

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E. M. Blyth, A. J. Dolman, and J. Noilhan

Abstract

A meso-β-scale model is used to model a frontal intrusion in southwest France during HAPEX-MOBILHY. The skill of the model to reproduce the observed variation in temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the domain is reasonable within the limitations of the model parameterizations and initialization procedure, although there were errors in the timing and positioning of the front. A stable boundary layer was both observed and modeled over the forested area. The associated negative sensible heat flux provided the energy to sustain evaporation from the wet forest canopy under conditions of low radiation. A large wind shear over the stably stratified boundary layer provided the required turbulent kinetic energy to maintain the downward transport of sensible heat. Sensitivity experiments showed that local rainfall with a full forest cover changed from 2.9 to 3.8 mm, which represents a 30% increase when compared with a bare-soil domain. Half of this increase is from positive feedback of the intercepted water that reevaporates. The high roughness length of the forest, with its associated physical and dynamical effects, accounts for the rest of the increase in rainfall and for the accompanying increase in soil moisture.

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Alan M. Blyth, Rasmus E. Benestad, Paul R. Krehbiel, and John Latham

Abstract

Observations made in 1987 with the NCAR King Air aircraft and in 1993 with the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology dual-polarization radar have revealed the presence of supercooled raindrops in some New Mexico summertime cumulus clouds. In the case of the radar data, the evidence for the supercooled drops came from a column of enhanced Z DR that extended well above the 0°C level. The in situ data indicated that the supercooled raindrops were observed when cloud base was warmer than about 7°C and the depth of the cloud was greater than about 2.5 km.

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G. P. Weedon, S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, W. J. Shuttleworth, E. Blyth, H. Österle, J. C. Adam, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, and M. Best

Abstract

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses model-independent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.

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David M. Plummer, Jeffrey R. French, David C. Leon, Alan M. Blyth, Sonia Lasher-Trapp, Lindsay J. Bennett, David R. L. Dufton, Robert C. Jackson, and Ryan R. Neely

Abstract

Analyses of the radar-observed structure and derived rainfall statistics of warm-season convection developing columns of enhanced positive differential reflectivity Z DR over England’s southwest peninsula are presented here. Previous observations of Z DR columns in developing cumulonimbus clouds over England were rare. The observations presented herein suggest otherwise, at least in the southwesterly winds over the peninsula. The results are the most extensive of their kind in the United Kingdom; the data were collected using the National Centre for Atmospheric Science dual-polarization X-band radar (NXPol) during the Convective Precipitation Experiment (COPE). In contrast to recent studies of Z DR columns focused on deep clouds that developed in high-instability environments, the COPE measurements show relatively frequent Z DR columns in shallower clouds, many only 4–5 km deep. The presence of Z DR columns is used to infer that an active warm rain process has contributed to precipitation evolution in convection deep enough for liquid and ice growth to take place. Clouds with Z DR columns were identified objectively in three COPE deployments, with both discrete convection and clouds embedded in larger convective complexes developing columns. Positive Z DR values typically extended to 1–1.25 km above 0°C in the columns, with Z DR ≥ 1 dB sometimes extending nearly 4 km above 0°C. Values above 3 dB typically occurred in the lowest 500 m above 0°C, with coincident airborne measurements confirming the presence of supercooled raindrops. Statistical analyses indicated that the convection that produced Z DR columns was consistently associated with the larger derived rainfall rates when compared with the overall convective population sampled by the NXPol during COPE.

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Energy and Water Cycles in a High-Latitude, North-Flowing River System

Summary of Results from the Mackenzie GEWEX Study—Phase I

W. R. Rouse, E. M. Blyth, R. W. Crawford, J. R. Gyakum, J. R. Janowicz, B. Kochtubajda, H. G. Leighton, P. Marsh, L. Martz, A. Pietroniro, H. Ritchie, W. M. Schertzer, E. D. Soulis, R. E. Stewart, G. S. Strong, and M. K. Woo

The MacKenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study, Phase 1, seeks to improve understanding of energy and water cycling in the Mackenzie River basin (MRB) and to initiate and test atmospheric, hydrologic, and coupled models that will project the sensitivity of these cycles to climate change and to human activities. Major findings from the study are outlined in this paper. Absorbed solar radiation is a primary driving force of energy and water, and shows dramatic temporal and spatial variability. Cloud amounts feature large diurnal, seasonal, and interannual fluctuations. Seasonality in moisture inputs and outputs is pronounced. Winter in the northern MRB features deep thermal inversions. Snow hydrological processes are very significant in this high-latitude environment and are being successfully modeled for various landscapes. Runoff processes are distinctive in the major terrain units, which is important to overall water cycling. Lakes and wetlands compose much of MRB and are prominent as hydrologic storage systems that must be incorporated into models. Additionally, they are very efficient and variable evaporating systems that are highly sensitive to climate variability. Mountainous high-latitude sub-basins comprise a mosaic of land surfaces with distinct hydrological attributes that act as variable source areas for runoff generation. They also promote leeward cyclonic storm generation. The hard rock terrain of the Canadian Shield exhibits a distinctive energy flux regimen and hydrologic regime. The MRB has been warming dramatically recently, and ice breakup and spring outflow into the Polar Sea has been occurring progressively earlier. This paper presents initial results from coupled atmospheric-hydrologic modeling and delineates distinctive cold region inputs needed for developments in regional and global climate modeling.

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Keith A. Browning, Alan M. Blyth, Peter A. Clark, Ulrich Corsmeier, Cyril J. Morcrette, Judith L. Agnew, Sue P. Ballard, Dave Bamber, Christian Barthlott, Lindsay J. Bennett, Karl M. Beswick, Mark Bitter, Karen E. Bozier, Barbara J. Brooks, Chris G. Collier, Fay Davies, Bernhard Deny, Mark A. Dixon, Thomas Feuerle, Richard M. Forbes, Catherine Gaffard, Malcolm D. Gray, Rolf Hankers, Tim J. Hewison, Norbert Kalthoff, Samiro Khodayar, Martin Kohler, Christoph Kottmeier, Stephan Kraut, Michael Kunz, Darcy N. Ladd, Humphrey W. Lean, Jürgen Lenfant, Zhihong Li, John Marsham, James McGregor, Stephan D. Mobbs, John Nicol, Emily Norton, Douglas J. Parker, Felicity Perry, Markus Ramatschi, Hugo M. A. Ricketts, Nigel M. Roberts, Andrew Russell, Helmut Schulz, Elizabeth C. Slack, Geraint Vaughan, Joe Waight, David P. Wareing, Robert J. Watson, Ann R. Webb, and Andreas Wieser

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model.

A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawinsondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP.

This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

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Douglas J Parker, Alan M Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H Marsham, J N Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H.M. Stein, Andrea L Taylor, Christopher M Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, and Lorraine Youds

Abstract

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps.

Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment.

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Robert M. Rauber, Bjorn Stevens, Harry T. Ochs III, Charles Knight, B. A. Albrecht, A. M. Blyth, C. W. Fairall, J. B. Jensen, S. G. Lasher-Trapp, O. L. Mayol-Bracero, G. Vali, J. R. Anderson, B. A. Baker, A. R. Bandy, E. Burnet, J.-L. Brenguier, W. A. Brewer, P. R. A. Brown, R Chuang, W. R. Cotton, L. Di Girolamo, B. Geerts, H. Gerber, S. Göke, L. Gomes, B. G. Heikes, J. G. Hudson, P. Kollias, R. R Lawson, S. K. Krueger, D. H. Lenschow, L. Nuijens, D. W. O'Sullivan, R. A. Rilling, D. C. Rogers, A. P. Siebesma, E. Snodgrass, J. L. Stith, D. C. Thornton, S. Tucker, C. H. Twohy, and P. Zuidema

Shallow, maritime cumuli are ubiquitous over much of the tropical oceans, and characterizing their properties is important to understanding weather and climate. The Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field campaign, which took place during November 2004–January 2005 in the trades over the western Atlantic, emphasized measurements of processes related to the formation of rain in shallow cumuli, and how rain subsequently modifies the structure and ensemble statistics of trade wind clouds. Eight weeks of nearly continuous S-band polarimetric radar sampling, 57 flights from three heavily instrumented research aircraft, and a suite of ground- and ship-based instrumentation provided data on trade wind clouds with unprecedented resolution. Observational strategies employed during RICO capitalized on the advances in remote sensing and other instrumentation to provide insight into processes that span a range of scales and that lie at the heart of questions relating to the cause and effects of rain from shallow maritime cumuli.

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Robert M. Rauber, Harry T. Ochs III, L. Di Girolamo, S. Göke, E. Snodgrass, Bjorn Stevens, Charles Knight, J. B. Jensen, D. H. Lenschow, R. A. Rilling, D. C. Rogers, J. L. Stith, B. A. Albrecht, P. Zuidema, A. M. Blyth, C. W. Fairall, W. A. Brewer, S. Tucker, S. G. Lasher-Trapp, O. L. Mayol-Bracero, G. Vali, B. Geerts, J. R. Anderson, B. A. Baker, R. P. Lawson, A. R. Bandy, D. C. Thornton, E. Burnet, J-L. Brenguier, L. Gomes, P. R. A. Brown, P. Chuang, W. R. Cotton, H. Gerber, B. G. Heikes, J. G. Hudson, P. Kollias, S. K. Krueger, L. Nuijens, D. W. O'Sullivan, A. P. Siebesma, and C. H. Twohy
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