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GEORGE C. SIMPSON

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Thomas R. Karl, Henry F. Diaz, and George Kukla

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Several equations were developed that related the effect of urban growth, measured by increasing population, to the mean seasonal and annual temperature: the diurnal maximum, minimum, average, and range. These equations were derived from a network of 1219 stations across the United States, which were analyzed for the years 1901–84. The results indicate that urban effects on temperature are detectable even for small towns with populations under 10 000. Stations with populations near 10 000 are shown to average 0.1°C warmer for the mean annual temperature than nearby stations located in rural areas with populations less than 2000. Urbanization decreases the daily maxima in all seasons except winter and the temperature range in all seasons. It increases the diurnal minima and the daily means in all seasons.

The equations indicate that, for the annual mean temperature, urbanization during the twentieth century accounts for a warm bias of about 0.06°C in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (HCN). Due to the large number of stations located in sparsely populated arms [(over 85% (70%) of all stations had a 1980 population of less than 25 000 (10 000)], the impact of urbanization is not large in relation to decadal changes of temperature in the United States. The average heat island impact during the period 1901–84 for the HCN is largest for the daily minima (0.13°C) and the temperature range (−0.14°C), while the impact on the daily maxima (−0.01°C) is an order of magnitude smaller.

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R. L. Hart, F. R. George, L. S. Vanloon, B. B. Hicks, and F. C. Kulhanek

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A new radiosonde system considerably improves the detection of fine temperature structure in the lower atmosphere. Special features of the system include a simple, inexpensive radiosonde which uses a monolithic timer in a rapid-response, temperature sensing audio oscillator circuit, a receiver which uses an integrated-circuit phase-lock-loop to track the audio-frequency pulses, and a simple, barometric release mechanism. The system has been used extensively in recent field investigations of the planetary boundary layer.

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George Ohring, Philip F. Clapp, Thomas R. Heddinghaus, and Arthur F. Krueger

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Maps are presented showing the mean annual sensitivities of longwave and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere to changes in cloud amount for the region 60°N to 60°S. The maps are based on an analysis of a 45-month set of monthly mean radiation budget data for the years 1974–78 derived from the NOAA satellite scanning radiometers. The analysis technique is based on the regression method of Ohring and Clapp (1980), with some minor modifications. Both regionally and globally, the maps show that the albedo effect of clouds is greater than their greenhouse effect. The maps also suggest that the longwave sensitivity parameter might serve as a useful measure of the geographical distribution of effective cloud heights.

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George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, Bruno Rudolf, Udo Schneider, and Peter R. Keehn

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The “satellite-gauge-model” (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5° × 2.5° lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40°N–40–S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brought in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields.

The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions

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Viviana Maggioni, Mathew R. P. Sapiano, Robert F. Adler, Yudong Tian, and George J. Huffman

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This study proposes a new framework, Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH), to provide time-varying, global estimates of errors for high-time-resolution, multisatellite precipitation products using a technique calibrated with high-quality validation data. Errors are estimated for the widely used Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product at daily/0.25° resolution, using the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified gauge dataset as the benchmark. PUSH estimates the probability distribution of reference precipitation given the satellite observation, from which the error can be computed as the difference (or ratio) between the satellite product and the estimated reference. The framework proposes different modeling approaches for each combination of rain and no-rain cases: correct no-precipitation detection (both satellite and gauges measure no precipitation), missed precipitation (satellite records a zero, but the gauges detect precipitation), false alarm (satellite detects precipitation, but the reference is zero), and hit (both satellite and gauges detect precipitation). Each case is explored and explicitly modeled to create a unified approach that combines all four scenarios. Results show that the estimated probability distributions are able to reproduce the probability density functions of the benchmark precipitation, in terms of both expected values and quantiles of the distribution. The spatial pattern of the error is also adequately reproduced by PUSH, and good agreement between observed and estimated errors is observed. The model is also able to capture missed precipitation and false detection uncertainties, whose contribution to the total error can be significant. The resulting error estimates could be attached to the corresponding high-resolution satellite precipitation products.

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Talmor Meir, Julie Pullen, Alan F. Blumberg, Teddy R. Holt, Paul E. Bieringer, and George Bieberbach Jr.

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Results are presented from a tracer-release modeling study designed to examine atmospheric transport and dispersion (“T&D”) behavior surrounding the complex coastal–urban region of New York City, New York, where air–sea interaction and urban influences are prominent. The puff-based Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC, version 5) model is run for idealized conditions, and it is also linked with the urbanized COAMPS (1 km) meteorological model and the NAM (12 km) meteorological model. Results are compared with “control” plumes utilizing surface meteorological input from 22 weather stations. In all configurations, nighttime conditions result in plume predictions that are more sensitive to small changes in wind direction. Plume overlap is reduced by up to 70% when plumes are transported during the night. An analysis of vertical plume cross sections and the nature of the underlying transport and the dispersion equations both suggest that heat flux gradients and boundary layer height gradients determine vertical transport of pollutants across land–sea boundaries in the T&D model. As a consequence, in both idealized and realistic meteorological configurations, waterfront releases generate greater plume discrepancies relative to plumes transported over land/urban surfaces. For transport over water (northwest winds), the higher-fidelity meteorological model (COAMPS) generated plumes with overlap reduced by about one-half when compared with that of the coarser-resolution NAM model (13% vs 24% during the daytime and 11% vs 18% during the nighttime). This study highlights the need for more sophisticated treatment of land–sea transition zones in T&D calculations covering waterside releases.

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Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, Jonathan Zawislak, Haiyan Jiang, George R. Alvey III, Edward J. Zipser, and Stephanie N. Stevenson

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The structural evolution of the inner core and near-environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on differences in the distribution of deep convection during two periods: when Edouard intensified toward hurricane status, and when Edouard peaked in intensity and began to weaken. While both periods saw precipitation maximized in the downshear-left and upshear-left quadrants, deep convection was only seen from the aircraft during the intensifying period.

Deep convection was located farther inside the radius of maximum winds (RMW) during the intensifying period than the weakening period. This convection is traced to strong updrafts inside the RMW in the downshear-right quadrant, tied to strong low-level convergence and high convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the storm remained over warm water in a moist environment. Strong updrafts persisted upshear left and were collocated with high inertial stability in the inner core. During weakening, no deep convection was present, and the precipitation that was observed was associated with weaker convergence downshear right at larger radii, as CAPE was reduced from lower sea surface temperatures, reduced humidity from subsidence, and a stronger warm core. Weak updrafts were seen upshear left, with little coincidence with the high inertial stability of the inner core.

These results highlight the importance of the azimuthal coverage of precipitation and the radial location of deep convection for intensification. A more symmetrical coverage can occur despite the presence of shear-driven azimuthal asymmetries in both the forcing and the local environment of the precipitation.

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Jonathan Zawislak, Haiyan Jiang, George R. Alvey III, Edward J. Zipser, Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, and Stephanie N. Stevenson

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The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution and thermodynamic changes that occur on the vortex scale during four periods: when Edouard was a slowly intensifying tropical storm, another while a rapidly intensifying hurricane, during the initial stages of weakening after reaching peak intensity, and later while experiencing moderate weakening in the midlatitudes. Results suggest that, in a shear-relative framework, a wavenumber-1 asymmetry exists whereby the downshear quadrants consistently exhibit the greatest precipitation coverage and highest relative humidity, while the upshear quadrants (especially upshear right) exhibit relatively less precipitation coverage and lower humidity, particularly in the midtroposphere. Whether dynamically or precipitation driven, the relatively dry layers upshear appear to be ubiquitously caused by subsidence. The precipitation and thermodynamic asymmetry is observed throughout the intensification and later weakening stages, while a consistently more symmetric distribution is only observed when Edouard reaches peak intensity. The precipitation distribution, which is also discussed in the context of the boundary layer thermodynamic properties, is intimately linked to the thermodynamic symmetry, which becomes greater as the frequency, areal coverage, and, in particular, rainfall rate increases upshear. Although shear is generally believed to be detrimental to intensification, observations in Edouard also indicate that subsidence warming from mesoscale downdrafts in the low- to midtroposphere very near the center may have contributed favorably to organization early in the intensification stage.

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George R. Halliwell Jr., Gustavo J. Goni, Michael F. Mehari, Villy H. Kourafalou, Molly Baringer, and Robert Atlas

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Credible tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction by coupled models requires accurate forecasts of enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere, which in turn requires accurate forecasts of sea surface temperature cooling beneath storms. Initial ocean fields must accurately represent ocean mesoscale features and the associated thermal and density structure. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed to quantitatively assess the impact of assimilating profiles collected from multiple underwater gliders deployed over the western North Atlantic Ocean TC region, emphasizing advantages gained by profiling from moving versus stationary platforms. Assimilating ocean profiles collected repeatedly at fixed locations produces large root-mean-square error reduction only within ~50 km of each profiler for two primary reasons. First, corrections performed during individual update cycles tend to introduce unphysical eddy structure resulting from smoothing properties of the background error covariance matrix and the tapering of innovations by a localization radius function. Second, advection produces rapid nonlinear error growth at larger distances from profiler locations. The ability of each individual moving glider to cross gradients and map mesoscale structure in its vicinity substantially reduces this nonlinear error growth. Glider arrays can be deployed with horizontal separation distances that are 50%–100% larger than those of fixed-location profilers to achieve similar mesoscale error reduction. By contrast, substantial larger-scale bias reduction in upper-ocean heat content can be achieved by deploying profiler arrays with separation distances up to several hundred kilometers, with moving gliders providing only modest additional improvement. Expected sensitivity of results to study region and data assimilation method is discussed.

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