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Abstract
A computerized objective technique has been developed to assist in the construction of tropical cyclone postanalysis tracks. The program employs linear and second-order smoothing routines to calculate storm position and intensity histories. The technique is general in nature and can incorporate fix information from any of the usual tropical cyclone reconnaissance platforms. It is currently undergoing evaluation at the Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Guam, Marianas Islands, as an aid in the development of best tracks for the western North Pacific Ocean and Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones.
Abstract
A computerized objective technique has been developed to assist in the construction of tropical cyclone postanalysis tracks. The program employs linear and second-order smoothing routines to calculate storm position and intensity histories. The technique is general in nature and can incorporate fix information from any of the usual tropical cyclone reconnaissance platforms. It is currently undergoing evaluation at the Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Guam, Marianas Islands, as an aid in the development of best tracks for the western North Pacific Ocean and Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones.
Abstract
The error characteristics of surface waves and winds produced by ensemble forecasts issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are analyzed as a function of forecast range and severity. Eight error metrics are compared, separating the scatter component of the error from the systematic bias. Ensemble forecasts of extreme winds and extreme waves are compared to deterministic forecasts for long lead times, up to 10 days. A total of 29 metocean buoys is used to assess 1 year of forecasts (2016). The Global Wave Ensemble Forecast System (GWES) performs 10-day forecasts four times per day, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a temporal resolution of 3 h, using a 20-member ensemble plus a control member (deterministic) forecast. The largest errors in GWES, beyond forecast day 3, are found to be associated with winds above 14 m s−1 and waves above 5 m. Extreme percentiles after the day-8 forecast reach 30% of underestimation for both 10-m-height wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs). The comparison of probabilistic wave forecasts with deterministic runs shows an impressive improvement of predictability on the scatter component of the errors. The error for surface winds drops from 5 m s−1 in the deterministic runs, associated with extreme events at longer forecast ranges, to values around 3 m s−1 using the ensemble approach. As a result, GWES waves are better predicted, with a reduction in error from 2 m to less than 1.5 m for Hs. Nevertheless, under extreme conditions, critical systematic and scatter errors are identified beyond the day-6 and day-3 forecasts, respectively.
Abstract
The error characteristics of surface waves and winds produced by ensemble forecasts issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are analyzed as a function of forecast range and severity. Eight error metrics are compared, separating the scatter component of the error from the systematic bias. Ensemble forecasts of extreme winds and extreme waves are compared to deterministic forecasts for long lead times, up to 10 days. A total of 29 metocean buoys is used to assess 1 year of forecasts (2016). The Global Wave Ensemble Forecast System (GWES) performs 10-day forecasts four times per day, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a temporal resolution of 3 h, using a 20-member ensemble plus a control member (deterministic) forecast. The largest errors in GWES, beyond forecast day 3, are found to be associated with winds above 14 m s−1 and waves above 5 m. Extreme percentiles after the day-8 forecast reach 30% of underestimation for both 10-m-height wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs). The comparison of probabilistic wave forecasts with deterministic runs shows an impressive improvement of predictability on the scatter component of the errors. The error for surface winds drops from 5 m s−1 in the deterministic runs, associated with extreme events at longer forecast ranges, to values around 3 m s−1 using the ensemble approach. As a result, GWES waves are better predicted, with a reduction in error from 2 m to less than 1.5 m for Hs. Nevertheless, under extreme conditions, critical systematic and scatter errors are identified beyond the day-6 and day-3 forecasts, respectively.
Nonlinear Wave Ensemble Averaging in the Gulf of Mexico Using Neural NetworksAbstract
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) applied to nonlinear wave ensemble averaging are developed and studied for Gulf of Mexico simulations. It is an approach that expands the conservative arithmetic ensemble mean (EM) from the NCEP Global Wave Ensemble Forecast System (GWES) to a nonlinear mapping that better captures the differences among the ensemble members and reduces the systematic and scatter errors of the forecasts. The ANNs have the 20 members of the GWES as input, and outputs are trained using observations from six buoys. The variables selected for the study are the 10-m wind speed (U10), significant wave height (Hs), and peak period (Tp) for the year of 2016. ANNs were built with one hidden layer using a hyperbolic tangent basis function. Several architectures with 12 different combinations of neurons, eight different filtering windows (time domain), and 100 seeds for the random initialization were studied and constructed for specific forecast days from 0 to 10. The results show that a small number of neurons are sufficient to reduce the bias, while 35–50 neurons produce the greatest reduction in both the scatter and systematic errors. The main advantage of the methodology using ANNs is not on short-range forecasts but at longer forecast ranges beyond 4 days. The nonlinear ensemble averaging using ANNs was able to improve the correlation coefficient on forecast day 10 from 0.39 to 0.61 for U10, from 0.50 to 0.76 for Hs, and from 0.38 to 0.63 for Tp, representing a gain of five forecast days when compared to the EM currently implemented.
Abstract
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) applied to nonlinear wave ensemble averaging are developed and studied for Gulf of Mexico simulations. It is an approach that expands the conservative arithmetic ensemble mean (EM) from the NCEP Global Wave Ensemble Forecast System (GWES) to a nonlinear mapping that better captures the differences among the ensemble members and reduces the systematic and scatter errors of the forecasts. The ANNs have the 20 members of the GWES as input, and outputs are trained using observations from six buoys. The variables selected for the study are the 10-m wind speed (U10), significant wave height (Hs), and peak period (Tp) for the year of 2016. ANNs were built with one hidden layer using a hyperbolic tangent basis function. Several architectures with 12 different combinations of neurons, eight different filtering windows (time domain), and 100 seeds for the random initialization were studied and constructed for specific forecast days from 0 to 10. The results show that a small number of neurons are sufficient to reduce the bias, while 35–50 neurons produce the greatest reduction in both the scatter and systematic errors. The main advantage of the methodology using ANNs is not on short-range forecasts but at longer forecast ranges beyond 4 days. The nonlinear ensemble averaging using ANNs was able to improve the correlation coefficient on forecast day 10 from 0.39 to 0.61 for U10, from 0.50 to 0.76 for Hs, and from 0.38 to 0.63 for Tp, representing a gain of five forecast days when compared to the EM currently implemented.
Abstract
Observations from the Meteorological Research Flight's Hercules C-130 aircraft of the microphysical characteristics of warm stratocumulus clouds have been analyzed to investigate the variation of the effective radius of cloud droplets in layer clouds. Results from experiments in the eastern Pacific, South Atlantic, subtropical regions of the North Atlantic, and the sea areas around the British Isles are presented. In situations where entrainment effects are small the (effective radius)3 is found to be a linear function of the (volume-averaged radius)3 in a given cloud and can thus be parameterized with respect to the liquid water content and the droplet number concentration in the cloud. However, the shape of the droplet size spectrum is very dependent on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) characteristics below cloud base, and the relationship between effective radius and volume-averaged radius varies between maritime air masses and continental air masses. This study also details comparisons that have been made in stratocumulus between the droplet number concentrations and (a) aerosol concentrations below cloud base in the size range 0.1 to 3.0 μm and (b) CCN supersaturation spectra in the boundary layer. A parameterization relating droplet concentration and aerosol concentration is suggested. The effects of nonadiabatic processes on the parameterization of effective radius are discussed. Drizzle is found to have little effect near cloud top, but in precipitating stratocumulus clouds the parameterization breaks down near cloud base. Comparisons are made between this parameterization of effective radius and others used currently or in the past.
Abstract
Observations from the Meteorological Research Flight's Hercules C-130 aircraft of the microphysical characteristics of warm stratocumulus clouds have been analyzed to investigate the variation of the effective radius of cloud droplets in layer clouds. Results from experiments in the eastern Pacific, South Atlantic, subtropical regions of the North Atlantic, and the sea areas around the British Isles are presented. In situations where entrainment effects are small the (effective radius)3 is found to be a linear function of the (volume-averaged radius)3 in a given cloud and can thus be parameterized with respect to the liquid water content and the droplet number concentration in the cloud. However, the shape of the droplet size spectrum is very dependent on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) characteristics below cloud base, and the relationship between effective radius and volume-averaged radius varies between maritime air masses and continental air masses. This study also details comparisons that have been made in stratocumulus between the droplet number concentrations and (a) aerosol concentrations below cloud base in the size range 0.1 to 3.0 μm and (b) CCN supersaturation spectra in the boundary layer. A parameterization relating droplet concentration and aerosol concentration is suggested. The effects of nonadiabatic processes on the parameterization of effective radius are discussed. Drizzle is found to have little effect near cloud top, but in precipitating stratocumulus clouds the parameterization breaks down near cloud base. Comparisons are made between this parameterization of effective radius and others used currently or in the past.
Abstract
A technique for following the circulation of a tracer in a turbulent fluid is developed from the integral form of the mass continuity equation. Numerical methods based on this technique are shown to be stable, to ensure that the total tracer mass is conserved, and that the mass in any region is always nonnegative. As an illustration of the utility of the technique, a numerical method is developed for a two-dimensional model of the stratosphere.
Abstract
A technique for following the circulation of a tracer in a turbulent fluid is developed from the integral form of the mass continuity equation. Numerical methods based on this technique are shown to be stable, to ensure that the total tracer mass is conserved, and that the mass in any region is always nonnegative. As an illustration of the utility of the technique, a numerical method is developed for a two-dimensional model of the stratosphere.
Abstract
This paper presents results of a pilot study of rainfall along the part of the Amazon River that flows through Brazil. Rain was measured at three stations, one for each of three regimes: coastal, interior bottomland, and interior upland. For each station the record from 1 January 1988 through 31 December 1990 was parsed into accumulation periods of 1 h. Storms on the coast tended to be more showery than those in the interior and storms in the interior upland tended to be more showery than those in the interior lowland. The diurnal cycle varied with distance from the Amazon River as well as with distance from the Atlantic coast.
Abstract
This paper presents results of a pilot study of rainfall along the part of the Amazon River that flows through Brazil. Rain was measured at three stations, one for each of three regimes: coastal, interior bottomland, and interior upland. For each station the record from 1 January 1988 through 31 December 1990 was parsed into accumulation periods of 1 h. Storms on the coast tended to be more showery than those in the interior and storms in the interior upland tended to be more showery than those in the interior lowland. The diurnal cycle varied with distance from the Amazon River as well as with distance from the Atlantic coast.
Abstract
The investigation of gap flow in the Wipp Valley (GAP project) is one of the objectives of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The valley runs south–north across the Brenner Pass, from Italy to Austria. The pass is the lowest one of the main Alpine ridge and is therefore a favorable location for a gap flow, which is called foehn. Based on the extensive dataset of MAP, this study gives a detailed analysis of foehn on 2 and 3 October 1999 [intensive observation period 5 (IOP 5)]. The foehn event began as a gap flow that was separated from midlevel winds by a strong temperature inversion during the night of 1–2 October 1999. On the next night (2– 3 October) the inversion dissipated, and the gap flow was combined with strong midlevel cross-ridge flow on 3 October 1999. This study shows that the existence of a temperature inversion above the gap flow has a crucial impact on the flow structure. Another emphasis of the study was the investigation of the small-scale flow structure downstream of the gap. Jumplike features and regions with flow reversals, which were interpreted as “rollers” (reversed rotors), could be observed in the Wipp Valley. A jet layer with a wavy structure indicated a gravity wave in the southern part of the valley. In the northern part the flow showed strong asymmetry with wind speeds nearly twice as strong on the eastern side as on the western one.
Abstract
The investigation of gap flow in the Wipp Valley (GAP project) is one of the objectives of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The valley runs south–north across the Brenner Pass, from Italy to Austria. The pass is the lowest one of the main Alpine ridge and is therefore a favorable location for a gap flow, which is called foehn. Based on the extensive dataset of MAP, this study gives a detailed analysis of foehn on 2 and 3 October 1999 [intensive observation period 5 (IOP 5)]. The foehn event began as a gap flow that was separated from midlevel winds by a strong temperature inversion during the night of 1–2 October 1999. On the next night (2– 3 October) the inversion dissipated, and the gap flow was combined with strong midlevel cross-ridge flow on 3 October 1999. This study shows that the existence of a temperature inversion above the gap flow has a crucial impact on the flow structure. Another emphasis of the study was the investigation of the small-scale flow structure downstream of the gap. Jumplike features and regions with flow reversals, which were interpreted as “rollers” (reversed rotors), could be observed in the Wipp Valley. A jet layer with a wavy structure indicated a gravity wave in the southern part of the valley. In the northern part the flow showed strong asymmetry with wind speeds nearly twice as strong on the eastern side as on the western one.
Abstract
Observations made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board NASA’s Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite have been processed using Salby’s fast Fourier synoptic mapping (FFSM) algorithm. The mapped data provide a first synoptic look at the mean structure and traveling waves of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) since the launch of the TIMED satellite in December 2001. The results show the presence of various wave modes in the MLT, which reach largest amplitude above the mesopause and include Kelvin and Rossby–gravity waves, eastward-propagating diurnal oscillations (“non-sun-synchronous tides”), and a set of quasi-normal modes associated with the so-called 2-day wave. The latter exhibits marked seasonal variability, attaining large amplitudes during the solstices and all but disappearing at the equinoxes. SABER data also show a strong quasi-stationary Rossby wave signal throughout the middle atmosphere of the winter hemisphere; the signal extends into the Tropics and even into the summer hemisphere in the MLT, suggesting ducting by westerly background zonal winds. At certain times of the year, the 5-day Rossby normal mode and the 4-day wave associated with instability of the polar night jet are also prominent in SABER data.
Abstract
Observations made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board NASA’s Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite have been processed using Salby’s fast Fourier synoptic mapping (FFSM) algorithm. The mapped data provide a first synoptic look at the mean structure and traveling waves of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) since the launch of the TIMED satellite in December 2001. The results show the presence of various wave modes in the MLT, which reach largest amplitude above the mesopause and include Kelvin and Rossby–gravity waves, eastward-propagating diurnal oscillations (“non-sun-synchronous tides”), and a set of quasi-normal modes associated with the so-called 2-day wave. The latter exhibits marked seasonal variability, attaining large amplitudes during the solstices and all but disappearing at the equinoxes. SABER data also show a strong quasi-stationary Rossby wave signal throughout the middle atmosphere of the winter hemisphere; the signal extends into the Tropics and even into the summer hemisphere in the MLT, suggesting ducting by westerly background zonal winds. At certain times of the year, the 5-day Rossby normal mode and the 4-day wave associated with instability of the polar night jet are also prominent in SABER data.
Abstract
The daytime net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was measured in an even-aged slash pine plantation in northern Florida from 1999 to 2001 using the eddy covariance technique. In August 2000, two clear-cuts were formed approximately 1 km west of the study site. A statistical approach was used to determine whether the clear-cuts induced changes in CO2 concentration, wind direction, horizontal and vertical wind speeds, and temperature, as measured by instruments above the plantation canopy and, in turn, whether any such changes affected daytime NEE. The NEE estimates were first transformed so that mean responses to incident radiation and vapor pressure deficit were removed using empirically derived functions for each 30-min period. Prior to the clear-cuts, there were significant interactive effects of CO2 concentration and some wind statistics on NEE at the tower when wind was flowing from the direction of the future clear-cuts. Even in this relatively homogenous forest, with flat topography, the CO2 source strength differed with wind direction prior to the clear-cuts. After the clear-cuts, additional two- and three-way interactive effects became significant during flows from the direction of the clear-cuts. There was also a 16.6% reduction in the integrated measure of daytime NEE over 487 days after the clear-cuts. The results herein suggest that the development of local circulations over the clear-cuts contributed to low-frequency effects on the NEE.
Abstract
The daytime net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was measured in an even-aged slash pine plantation in northern Florida from 1999 to 2001 using the eddy covariance technique. In August 2000, two clear-cuts were formed approximately 1 km west of the study site. A statistical approach was used to determine whether the clear-cuts induced changes in CO2 concentration, wind direction, horizontal and vertical wind speeds, and temperature, as measured by instruments above the plantation canopy and, in turn, whether any such changes affected daytime NEE. The NEE estimates were first transformed so that mean responses to incident radiation and vapor pressure deficit were removed using empirically derived functions for each 30-min period. Prior to the clear-cuts, there were significant interactive effects of CO2 concentration and some wind statistics on NEE at the tower when wind was flowing from the direction of the future clear-cuts. Even in this relatively homogenous forest, with flat topography, the CO2 source strength differed with wind direction prior to the clear-cuts. After the clear-cuts, additional two- and three-way interactive effects became significant during flows from the direction of the clear-cuts. There was also a 16.6% reduction in the integrated measure of daytime NEE over 487 days after the clear-cuts. The results herein suggest that the development of local circulations over the clear-cuts contributed to low-frequency effects on the NEE.
Abstract
Observations of the atmospheric absorption spectrum have been made from the site of the Mauna Kea Observatory (elevation 4.2 km). Using an interferometer and cryogenic barometer, we have obtained solar spectra with a resolution of better than 0.2 cm−1 in the frequency range below 30cm−1 (λ≳300μ). Interesting features of these spectra include five molecular oxygen rotational transitions and the presence of structure attributable to a number of other atmospheric constituents. In addition a comparison of the experimental results to theoretical water vapor spectra has provided an estimate of the achievable atmospheric transmission from this site for astronomical observations in this spectral range.
Abstract
Observations of the atmospheric absorption spectrum have been made from the site of the Mauna Kea Observatory (elevation 4.2 km). Using an interferometer and cryogenic barometer, we have obtained solar spectra with a resolution of better than 0.2 cm−1 in the frequency range below 30cm−1 (λ≳300μ). Interesting features of these spectra include five molecular oxygen rotational transitions and the presence of structure attributable to a number of other atmospheric constituents. In addition a comparison of the experimental results to theoretical water vapor spectra has provided an estimate of the achievable atmospheric transmission from this site for astronomical observations in this spectral range.
