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Gabriele Villarini

Abstract

The focus of this study is the evaluation of the research-version Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) rainfall product at its finest spatial and temporal resolutions (3-hourly and 0.25° × 0.25°) over the Rome, Italy, metropolitan area during the period from October 2008 to January 2009. Accurate ground reference rainfall estimates for two satellite pixels are obtained from a dense rain gauge network (22 rain gauges in one pixel and 16 in the other one). The evaluation is based on examination of time series, scatterplots, and survival functions, as well as measures of agreement and disagreement. The results of this study point to the importance of using the TRMM satellite for rainfall estimation. Suggestions in terms of minimum number of rain gauges required to estimate ground reference rainfall are also provided.

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David A. Lavers
and
Gabriele Villarini

Abstract

This paper undertakes a hydrometeorological analysis of flood events in the central United States. Vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport over 1979–2011 is calculated in the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and used in an algorithm to identify episodes of high moisture transport, or atmospheric rivers (ARs), over the central United States. The AR events are almost evenly divided among the seasons (143 during the winter, 144 during the spring, and 124 during the fall), with a minimum (40) during the summer. The annual maxima (AM) floods from 1105 basins over the period 1980–2011 are used as a measure of the hydrologic impact of the AR events. Of these basins, 470 (or 42.5%) had more than 50% of their AM floods linked to ARs. Furthermore, 660 of the 1105 basins (59.7%) had 5 or more of their top 10 AM floods related to ARs, indicating that ARs control the upper tail of the flood peak distribution over large portions of the study area. The seasonal composite average of mean sea level pressure anomalies associated with the ARs shows a trough located over the central United States and a ridge over the U.S. East Coast, leading to southerly winds and the advection of moisture over the study region. Based on the findings of this study, ARs are a major flood agent over the central United States.

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Gabriele Villarini
and
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract

Tropical cyclones—particularly intense ones—are a hazard to life and property, so an assessment of the changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity has important socioeconomic implications. In this study, the authors focus on the seasonally integrated power dissipation index (PDI) as a metric to project changes in tropical cyclone intensity. Based on a recently developed statistical model, this study examines projections in North Atlantic PDI using output from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models and three radiative forcing scenarios. Overall, the authors find that North Atlantic PDI is projected to increase with respect to the 1986–2005 period across all scenarios. The difference between the PDI projections and those of the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, which are not projected to increase significantly, indicates an intensification of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in response to both greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and aerosol changes over the current century. At the end of the twenty-first century, the magnitude of these increases shows a positive dependence on projected GHG forcing. The projected intensification is significantly enhanced by non-GHG (primarily aerosol) forcing in the first half of the twenty-first century.

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Gabriele Villarini
and
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract

This study focuses on the statistical modeling of the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic basin over the period 1949–2008, which are metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity, and their sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) changes. To describe the variability exhibited by the data, four different statistical distributions are considered (gamma, Gumbel, lognormal, and Weibull), and tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs are used as predictors. Model selection, both in terms of significant covariates and their functional relation to the parameters of the statistical distribution, is performed using two penalty criteria. Two different SST datasets are considered [the Met Office’s Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISSTv1) and NOAA’s extended reconstructed SST dataset (ERSSTv3b)] to examine the sensitivity of the results to the input data.

The statistical models presented in this study are able to well describe the variability in the observations according to several goodness-of-fit diagnostics. Both tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs are significant predictors, independently of the SST input data, penalty criterion, and tropical storm activity metric. The application of these models to centennial reconstructions and seasonal forecasting is illustrated.

The sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity is examined for both uniform and nonuniform SST changes. Under uniform SST warming, these results indicate that there is a modest sensitivity of intensity, and a decrease in tropical storm and hurricane frequencies. On the other hand, increases in tropical Atlantic SST relative to the tropical mean SST suggest an increase in the intensity and frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.

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Gabriele Villarini
and
Witold F. Krajewski

Abstract

It is well acknowledged that there are large uncertainties associated with the operational quantitative precipitation estimates produced by the U.S. national network of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). These errors result from the measurement principles, parameter estimation, and the not fully understood physical processes. Even though comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the total radar-rainfall uncertainties has been the object of earlier studies, an open question remains concerning how the error model results are affected by parameter values and correction setups in the radar-rainfall algorithms. This study focuses on the effects of different exponents in the reflectivity–rainfall (ZR) relation [Marshall–Palmer, default Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), and tropical] and the impact of an anomalous propagation removal algorithm. To address this issue, the authors apply an empirically based model in which the relation between true rainfall and radar rainfall could be described as the product of a systematic distortion function and a random component. Additionally, they extend the error model to describe the radar-rainfall uncertainties in an additive form. This approach is fully empirically based, and rain gauge measurements are considered as an approximation of the true rainfall. The proposed results are based on a large sample (6 yr) of data from the Oklahoma City radar (KTLX) and processed through the Hydro-NEXRAD software system. The radar data are complemented with the corresponding rain gauge observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and the Agricultural Research Service Micronet.

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Gabriele Villarini
and
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract

By considering the intensity, duration, and frequency of tropical cyclones, the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are concise metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity. This study focuses on the development of a hybrid statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasting system for the North Atlantic Ocean’s PDI and ACE over the period 1982–2011. The statistical model uses only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational record, reflecting the role of both local and nonlocal effects on the genesis and development of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. SSTs are predicted using a 10-member ensemble of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), an experimental dynamical seasonal-to-interannual prediction system. To assess prediction skill, a set of retrospective predictions is initialized for each month from November to April, over the years 1981–2011. The skill assessment indicates that it is possible to make skillful predictions of ACE and PDI starting from November of the previous year: skillful predictions of the seasonally integrated North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the coming season could be made even while the current one is still under way. Probabilistic predictions for the 2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season are presented.

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Abdou Khouakhi
,
Gabriele Villarini
, and
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract

This study quantifies the relative contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) to annual, seasonal, and extreme rainfall and examines the connection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of extreme TC-induced rainfall across the globe. The authors use historical 6-h best-track TC datasets and daily precipitation data from 18 607 global rain gauges with at least 25 complete years of data between 1970 and 2014. The highest TC-induced rainfall totals occur in East Asia (>400 mm yr−1) and northeastern Australia (>200 mm yr−1), followed by the southeastern United States and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (100–150 mm yr−1). Fractionally, TCs account for 35%–50% of the mean annual rainfall in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines, and Baja California, Mexico. Seasonally, between 40% and 50% of TC-induced rain is recorded along the western coast of Australia and in islands of the south Indian Ocean in the austral summer and in East Asia and Mexico in boreal summer and fall. In terms of extremes, using annual maximum and peak-over-threshold approaches, the highest proportions of TC-induced rainfall are found in East Asia, followed by Australia and North and Central America, with fractional contributions generally decreasing farther inland from the coast. The relationship between TC-induced extreme rainfall and ENSO reveals that TC-induced extreme rainfall tends to occur more frequently in Australia and along the U.S. East Coast during La Niña and in East Asia and the northwestern Pacific islands during El Niño.

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Yibing Su
,
James A. Smith
, and
Gabriele Villarini

Abstract

The Lower Mississippi River has experienced a cluster of extreme floods during the past two decades. The Bonnet Carré spillway, which is located on the Mississippi River immediately upstream of New Orleans, has been operated 15 times since its completion in 1931, with 7 occurrences after 2008. In this study, we examine rainfall and atmospheric water balance components associated with Lower Mississippi River flooding in 2008, 2011, and 2015–19. We focus on multiple time scales—1, 3, 7, and 14 days—reflecting contributions from individual storm systems and the aggregate contributions from a sequence of storm systems. Atmospheric water balance variables—integrated water vapor flux (IVT) and precipitable water—are central to our assessment of the storm environment for Lower Mississippi flood events. We find anomalously large IVT corridors accompany the critical periods of heavy rainfall and are organized in southwest–northeast orientation over the Mississippi domain. Atmospheric rivers play an important role as agents of extremes in water vapor flux and rainfall. We conduct climatological analyses of IVT and precipitable water extremes across the four time scales using 40 years of North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) fields from 1979 to 2018. We find significant increasing trends in both variables at all time scales. Increases in IVT especially cover large regions of the Mississippi domain. The findings point to increased vulnerability faced by the Mississippi flood control system in the current and future climate.

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Yibing Su
,
James A. Smith
, and
Gabriele Villarini

Abstract

Extreme rainfall from extratropical cyclones and the distinctive hydrology of the winter season both contribute to flood extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region. In this study, we examine extreme rainfall and flooding from a winter season extratropical cyclone that passed through the eastern United States on 24/25 February 2016. Extreme rainfall rates during the 24/25 February 2016 time period were produced by supercell thunderstorms; we identify supercells through local maxima in azimuthal shear fields computed from Doppler velocity measurements from WSR-88D radars. Rainfall rates approaching 250 mm h−1 from a long-lived supercell in New Jersey were measured by a Parsivel disdrometer. A distinctive element of the storm environment for the 24/25 February 2016 storm was elevated values of convective available potential energy (CAPE). We also examine the climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs)—like the February 2016 storm—based on an identification and tracking algorithm that uses Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields for the 66-yr period from 1950 to 2015. Climatological analyses suggest that AR frequency is increasing over the Mid-Atlantic region. An increase in AR frequency, combined with increasing frequency of elevated CAPE during the winter season over the Mid-Atlantic region, could result in striking changes to the climatology of extreme floods.

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Gabriele Villarini
,
James A. Smith
, and
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract

Records of daily rainfall accumulations from 447 rain gauge stations over the central United States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi) are used to assess past changes in the frequency of heavy rainfall. Each station has a record of at least 50 yr, and the data cover most of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Analyses are performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach, and, for each station, the 95th percentile is used as the threshold. Because of the count nature of the data and to account for both abrupt and slowly varying changes in the heavy rainfall distribution, a segmented regression is used to detect changepoints at unknown points in time. The presence of trends is assessed by means of a Poisson regression model to examine whether the rate of occurrence parameter is a linear function of time (by means of a logarithmic link function). The results point to increasing trends in heavy rainfall over the northern part of the study domain. Examination of the surface temperature record suggests that these increasing trends occur over the area with the largest increasing trends in temperature and, consequently, with an increase in atmospheric water vapor.

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