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Cristian Muñoz
,
David Schultz
, and
Geraint Vaughan

Abstract

A climatology of midlatitude 200- and 500-hPa cut-off low systems in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is constructed from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis by detecting and tracking, under one consistent method, all of the systems that persisted for more than 36 h for the 58 years of 1960–2017. This method identifies a cut-off low as a cold-core geopotential height minimum that is isolated from the main westerlies and with a strong temperature gradient on its eastern flank. The obtained spatial and seasonal distributions show preferred regions of occurrence and that within these regions there is a level-dependent seasonality of cut-off lows. Whereas 200-hPa systems are more frequent in summer and autumn, 500-hPa systems are more evenly distributed throughout the seasons. Within each region and at each level, the annual number of cut-off lows has been increasing over time, trends that are consistent with documented signals of climate change such as a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets and an increase in blocking frequency. These trends explain as much as 64% of the variance in the annual number of cut-off lows. The contribution of the annular modes and El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the interannual variability of the number of cut-off lows per season in each hemisphere is also investigated. Only the Northern Hemisphere annular mode has a statistically significant negative correlation throughout all seasons that explains 18%–45% of the variance in the yearly number of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa cut-off lows.

Open access
David M. Schultz
and
Geraint Vaughan

Traditionally, the formation of an occluded front during the occlusion process in extratropical cyclones has been viewed as the catch-up of a faster-moving cold front to a slower-moving warm front separating the warm-sector air from the low center, as first described in the Norwegian cyclone model over 90 yr ago. In this article, the conventional wisdom, or the commonly held beliefs originating from the Norwegian cyclone model, about occluded fronts and the occlusion process are critically examined. The following four tenets of this conventional wisdom are addressed. First, the occlusion process is better described not by catch-up, but by the wrapping up and lengthening of the warm-air tongue as a result of deformation and rotation around the low center. Second, the merger of the cold front and warm front does not result in the frontal zone with the warmer air ascending over the other frontal zone. Instead, the occluded frontal zone tilts over the more statically stable frontal zone. Because a warmfrontal zone tends to be more stable than a cold-frontal zone, this process usually produces a warm-type occlusion, confirming that cold-type occlusions are less common than warm-type occlusions. Third, occlusion does not mean that the cyclone has stopped deepening, because many cyclones continue to deepen 10–30 mb for 12–36 h after the formation of the occluded front. Fourth, clouds and precipitation associated with occluded fronts differ from their widespread stratiform depiction in textbooks. Embedded precipitation bands may be parallel to the front, and little relationship may exist between the fronts and the cloud mass. These four tenets help to explain anomalies in the Norwegian cyclone model, such as how occluded fronts that spiral around the low center do not require catch-up to form, how Shapiro–Keyser cyclones undergo occlusion, why some cyclones do not form occluded fronts, how some cyclones deepen after occlusion, why few cold-type occlusions have been observed, and why occluded cyclones are often associated with heavy precipitation. This reexamination of conventional wisdom leads to a new paradigm for occluded fronts and occluded cyclones.

A supplement to this article is available online:

DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS3057.2

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Sam Hardy
,
David M. Schultz
, and
Geraint Vaughan

Abstract

Major river flooding affected the United Kingdom in late September 2012 as a slow-moving extratropical cyclone brought over 100 mm of rain to a large swath of northern England and north Wales, with local accumulations approaching 200 mm. The cyclone developed on 20–22 September following the interaction between an equatorward-moving potential vorticity (PV) streamer and Tropical Storm Nadine, near the Azores. A plume of tropical moisture was drawn poleward ahead of the PV streamer over a low-level baroclinic zone, allowing deep convection to develop. Convectively driven latent heat release reduced upper-tropospheric PV near the streamer, causing it to fracture and cut off from the reservoir of high PV over the United Kingdom. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with 4-km horizontal grid spacing in which microphysical heating and cooling tendencies are set to zero, alongside calculations of instantaneous diabatic heating rates and PV tendencies along trajectories, reveal that deposition heating contributed strongly to the fracturing of the PV streamer into a discrete anomaly by directly reducing upper-tropospheric PV to the streamer’s east. Condensation heating contributed to lower-tropospheric PV generation along the cold front as the cyclone developed, while cooling due to sublimation, evaporation, and melting modified the PV much less strongly. The results of this case study show that the collocation of strong deposition heating with positive absolute vorticity in the upper troposphere can lead to substantial PV modification and a very different cyclone evolution to that when deposition heating is suppressed.

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Precipitation Banding in Idealized Baroclinic Waves

Jesse Norris
,
Geraint Vaughan
, and
David M. Schultz

Abstract

Moist idealized baroclinic-wave simulations show the development of precipitation bands from a zonally uniform initial midlatitude jet. For a frictionless lower boundary, and with no latent-heat release or surface heat and moisture fluxes, warm advection is strong and a bent-back warm front forms. Although a narrow vertical-velocity maximum forms within the area of synoptic-scale ascent near the triple point, only a wide warm-frontal band forms. As surface roughness length increases between simulations to that of an ocean then a land surface, warm advection is reduced and the cold front becomes stronger relative to the warm front. A separate narrow rainband forms along the cold front, which is more intense and farther removed from the wide warm-frontal band when roughness length is greater. In the simulation with roughness length appropriate to the ocean, after the narrow band decays, the precipitation becomes oriented along the warm conveyor belt in the warm sector. When latent-heat release is included, this warm-sector precipitation evolves into multiple bands, which eventually weaken with the cyclone. When surface heat and moisture fluxes are included, the ascent at the surface cold front stays strong and a well-defined cold front of the anafront variety persists through this mature stage. The surface precipitation remains in a single intense band along and ahead of the cold front. Therefore, strong surface heat and moisture fluxes inhibit multiple bands, but a simulation with lower sea surface temperature (SST) more closely resembles the simulation without surface heat and moisture fluxes, demonstrating that the detailed structure and evolution of precipitation banding is sensitive to SST.

Open access
Bogdan Antonescu
,
Geraint Vaughan
, and
David M. Schultz

Abstract

A five-year (2006–10) radar-based climatology of tropopause folds and convective storms was constructed for Wales, United Kingdom, to determine how deep, moist convection is modulated by tropopause folds. Based on the continuous, high-resolution data from a very high frequency (VHF) wind-profiling radar located at Capel Dewi, Wales, 183 tropopause folds were identified. Tropopause folds were most frequent in January with a secondary maximum in July. Based on data from the U.K. weather radar network, a climatology of 685 convective storms was developed. The occurrence of convective storms was relatively high year-round except for an abrupt minimum in February–April. Multicellular lines (43.5%) were the most common morphology with a maximum in October, followed by isolated cells (33.1%) with a maximum in May–September, and nonlinear clusters (23.4%) with a maximum in November–January. Convective storms were associated with 104 (56.8%) of the tropopause folds identified in this study, with the association strongest in December. Of the 55 tropopause folds observed on the eastern side of an upper-level trough, 37 (67.3%) were associated with convective storms, most commonly in the form of multicellular lines. Of the 128 tropopause folds observed on the western side of an upper-level trough, 42 (32.8%) were associated with convective storms, most commonly isolated cells. These results suggest that more organized storms tend to form in environments favorable for synoptic-scale ascent.

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Jesse Norris
,
Geraint Vaughan
, and
David M. Schultz

Abstract

Precipitation patterns along cold fronts can exhibit a variety of morphologies including narrow cold-frontal rainbands and core-and-gap structures. A three-dimensional primitive equation model is used to investigate alongfront variability of precipitation in an idealized baroclinic wave. Along the poleward part of the cold front, a narrow line of precipitation develops. Along the equatorward part of the cold front, precipitation cores and gaps form. The difference between the two evolutions is due to differences in the orientation of vertical shear near the front in the lower troposphere: at the poleward end the along-frontal shear is dominant and the front is in near-thermal wind balance, while at the equatorward end the cross-frontal shear is almost as large. At the poleward end, the thermal structure remains erect with the front well defined up to the midtroposphere, hence updrafts remain erect and precipitation falls in a continuous line along the front. At the equatorward end, the cores form as undulations appear in both the prefrontal and postfrontal lighter precipitation, associated with vorticity maxima moving along the front on either side. Cross-frontal winds aloft tilt updrafts, so that some precipitation falls ahead of the surface cold front, forming the cores. Sensitivity simulations are also presented in which SST and roughness length are varied between simulations. Larger SST reduces cross-frontal winds aloft and leads to a more continuous rainband. Larger roughness length destroys the surface wind shift and thermal gradient, allowing mesovortices to dominate the precipitation distribution, leading to distinctive and irregularly shaped, quasi-regularly spaced precipitation maxima.

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Sam Hardy
,
David M. Schultz
, and
Geraint Vaughan

Abstract

Major river flooding affected the United Kingdom in late September 2012 as a slow-moving extratropical cyclone brought over 150 mm of rain to parts of northern England and north Wales. The cyclone deepened over the United Kingdom on 24–26 September as a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly approached from the northwest, elongated into a PV streamer, and wrapped around the cyclone. The strength and position of the PV anomaly is modified in the initial conditions of Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations, using PV surgery, to examine whether different upper-level forcing, or different phasing between the PV anomaly and cyclone, could have produced an even more extreme event. These simulations reveal that quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent ahead of the anomaly contributed to the persistence of the rainfall over the United Kingdom. Moreover, weakening the anomaly resulted in lower rainfall accumulations across the United Kingdom, suggesting that the impact of the event might be proportional to the strength of the upper-level QG forcing. However, when the anomaly was strengthened, it rotated cyclonically around a large-scale trough over Iceland rather than moving eastward as in the verifying analysis, with strongly reduced accumulated rainfall across the United Kingdom. A similar evolution developed when the anomaly was moved farther away from the cyclone. Conversely, moving the anomaly nearer to the cyclone produced a similar solution to the verifying analysis, with slightly increased rainfall totals. These counterintuitive results suggest that the verifying analysis represented almost the highest-impact scenario possible for this flooding event when accounting for sensitivity to the initial position and strength of the PV anomaly.

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Callum F. Thompson
,
David M. Schultz
, and
Geraint Vaughan

Abstract

A climatology of tropospheric inertial instability is constructed using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) at 250, 500, and 850 hPa. For each level, two criteria are used. The first criterion is the traditional criterion of absolute vorticity that is opposite in sign to the local Coriolis parameter. The second criterion, referred to as the gradient criterion, is the traditional criterion with an added term incorporating flow curvature. Both criteria show that instability, on all pressure levels, occurs most frequently in the tropics and decreases toward the poles. Compared to the traditional criterion, the gradient criterion diagnoses instability much more frequently outside the tropics and less frequently near the equator. The global distribution of inertial instability also shows many local maxima in the occurrence of instability. A sample of these local maxima is investigated further by constructing composites of the synoptic-scale flow associated with instability. The composites show that instability occurs in association with cross-equatorial flow in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Somali jet, tip jets off northern Madagascar, the western Pacific subtropical high, gap winds across Central America, upper-level ridging over western North America, and the North Atlantic polar jet. Furthermore, relatively long-lived synoptic-scale regions of instability are found within the midlatitude jet streams.

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Geraint Vaughan
,
Bogdan Antonescu
,
David M. Schultz
, and
Christopher Dearden

Abstract

Deep convection frequently occurs on the eastern side of upper-level troughs, or potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. This is consistent with uplift ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly, and consequent reduction in static stability and increase of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Nevertheless, the causal link between upper-level PV and deep convection has not been proven, and given that lift, moisture, and instability must all be present for deep convection to occur it is not clear that upper-level forcing is sufficient. In this paper a convective rainband that intensified ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly in an environment with little CAPE (~10 J kg−1) is examined to determine the factors responsible for its intensification. The key feature was a low-level convergence line, arising from the remnants of an occluded front embedded in the low-level cyclonic flow. The rainband’s intensity and morphology was influenced by the remnants of a tropopause fold that capped convection at midlevels in the southern part of the band, and by a reduction in upper-level static stability in the northern part of the band that allowed the convection to reach the tropopause. Ascent ahead of the trough appears to have played only a minor role in conditioning the atmosphere to convection: in most cases the ascending airstream had previously descended in the flow west of the trough axis. Thus, simple “PV thinking” is not capable of describing the development of the rainband, and it is concluded that preexisting low-level wind and humidity features played the dominant role.

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Peter T. May
,
James H. Mather
,
Geraint Vaughan
,
Christian Jakob
,
Greg M. McFarquhar
,
Keith N. Bower
, and
Gerald G. Mace

A comprehensive dataset describing tropical cloud systems and their environmental setting and impacts has been collected during the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWPICE) and Aerosol and Chemical Transport in Tropical Convection (ACTIVE) campaign in the area around Darwin, Northern Australia, in January and February 2006. The aim of the experiment was to observe the evolution of tropical cloud systems and their interaction with the environment within an observational framework optimized for a range of modeling activities with the goal of improving the representation of cloud and aerosol process in a range of models. The experiment design utilized permanent observational facilities in Darwin, including a polarimetric weather radar and a suite of cloud remote-sensing instruments. This was augmented by a dense network of soundings, together with radiation, flux, lightning, and remote-sensing measurements, as well as oceanographic observations. A fleet of five research aircraft, including two high-altitude aircraft, were taking measurements of fluxes, cloud microphysics, and chemistry; cloud radar and lidar were carried on a third aircraft. Highlights of the experiment include an intense mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed within the network, observations used to analyze the impacts of aerosol on convective systems, and observations used to relate cirrus properties to the parent storm properties.

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