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Zhijun Huang, Huan Wu, Robert F. Adler, Guy Schumann, Jonathan J. Gourley, Albert Kettner, and Nergui Nanding

Abstract

A reliable flood event inventory that reflects the occurrence and evolution of past floods is important for studies of flood hazards and risks, hydroclimatic extremes, and future flood projections. However, currently-available flood inventories are based on single-sourced data and often neglect underreported or less impactful flood events. Furthermore, traditional archives store flood events only at sparse geographic points, which significantly limits their further applicability. Also, few publicly available archives contain all-inclusive records of potential natural flooded area over time.

To tackle these challenges, we construct two types of multi-sourced flood event inventories (MFI) for all river basins across the contiguous United States covering the period 1998-2013 on daily and sub-catchment scales, which is publicly available at http://flood.umd.edu/download/CONUS/. These archives integrate flood information from in-situ observations, remote-sensing observations, hydrological model simulations, and five high quality precipitation products. The first inventory (MFI-Actual) includes all actual floods that occurred in the presence of flood protection infrastructures, while the second, “natural (undefended)” inventory (MFI-Natural) reconstructs the possible “historical” floods without flood protection, which could be more directly influenced by climate variation. In the proposed two inventories, 2,755 and 4,661 flood events were estimated, respectively. MFI-Natural reconstructed 1,597 floods in ungauged basins, and recovered 608 extreme streamflow events in gauged sub-catchments where floods would have happened if there were no flood protection. There is an average of four upstream 44 dams located in these flood-recovered sub-catchments, which indicates that modern flood defenses efficiently prevent significant flooding from extreme precipitation in many catchments over the country.

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Zhijun Huang, Huan Wu, Robert F. Adler, Guy Schumann, Jonathan J. Gourley, Albert Kettner, and Nergui Nanding

Abstract

A reliable flood event inventory that reflects the occurrence and evolution of past floods is important for studies of flood hazards and risks, hydroclimatic extremes, and future flood projections. However, currently available flood inventories are based on single-sourced data and often neglect underreported or less impactful flood events. Furthermore, traditional archives store flood events only at sparse geographic points, which significantly limits their further applicability. Also, few publicly available archives contain all-inclusive records of potential natural flooded area over time. To tackle these challenges, we construct two types of multisourced flood event inventories (MFI) for all river basins across the contiguous United States covering the period 1998–2013 on daily and subcatchment scales, which is publicly available at http://flood.umd.edu/download/CONUS/. These archives integrate flood information from in situ observations, remote sensing observations, hydrological model simulations, and five high-quality precipitation products. The first inventory (MFI-Actual) includes all actual floods that occurred in the presence of flood protection infrastructures, while the second, “natural (undefended)” inventory (MFI-Natural) reconstructs the possible “historical” floods without flood protection, which could be more directly influenced by climate variation. In the proposed two inventories, 2,755 and 4,661 flood events were estimated, respectively. MFI-Natural reconstructed 1,597 floods in ungauged basins, and recovered 608 extreme streamflow events in gauged subcatchments where floods would have happened if there were no flood protection. There is an average of four upstream dams located in these flood-recovered subcatchments, which indicates that modern flood defenses efficiently prevent significant flooding from extreme precipitation in many catchments over the country.

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Faisal Hossain, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Stephanie Granger, Amy Thomas, David Saah, David Ganz, Robinson Mugo, M. S. R. Murthy, Victor Hugo Ramos, Carolyn Fonseca, Eric Anderson, Guy Schumann, Rebecca Lewison, Dalia Kirschbaum, Vanessa Escobar, Margaret Srinivasan, Christine Lee, Naveed Iqbal, Elliot Levine, Nancy Searby, Lawrence Friedl, Africa Flores, Dauna Coulter, Dan Irwin, Ashutosh Limaye, Tim Stough, Jay Skiles, Sue Estes, William Crosson, and Ali S. Akanda
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Guy P. Brasseur, Mohan Gupta, Bruce E. Anderson, Sathya Balasubramanian, Steven Barrett, David Duda, Gregg Fleming, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Andrew Gettelman, Rangasayi N. Halthore, S. Daniel Jacob, Mark Z. Jacobson, Arezoo Khodayari, Kuo-Nan Liou, Marianne T. Lund, Richard C. Miake-Lye, Patrick Minnis, Seth Olsen, Joyce E. Penner, Ronald Prinn, Ulrich Schumann, Henry B. Selkirk, Andrei Sokolov, Nadine Unger, Philip Wolfe, Hsi-Wu Wong, Donald W. Wuebbles, Bingqi Yi, Ping Yang, and Cheng Zhou

Abstract

Under the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI), non-CO2 climatic impacts of commercial aviation are assessed for current (2006) and for future (2050) baseline and mitigation scenarios. The effects of the non-CO2 aircraft emissions are examined using a number of advanced climate and atmospheric chemistry transport models. Radiative forcing (RF) estimates for individual forcing effects are provided as a range for comparison against those published in the literature. Preliminary results for selected RF components for 2050 scenarios indicate that a 2% increase in fuel efficiency and a decrease in NOx emissions due to advanced aircraft technologies and operational procedures, as well as the introduction of renewable alternative fuels, will significantly decrease future aviation climate impacts. In particular, the use of renewable fuels will further decrease RF associated with sulfate aerosol and black carbon. While this focused ACCRI program effort has yielded significant new knowledge, fundamental uncertainties remain in our understanding of aviation climate impacts. These include several chemical and physical processes associated with NOx–O3–CH4 interactions and the formation of aviation-produced contrails and the effects of aviation soot aerosols on cirrus clouds as well as on deriving a measure of change in temperature from RF for aviation non-CO2 climate impacts—an important metric that informs decision-making.

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Faisal Hossain, Margaret Srinivasan, Craig Peterson, Alice Andral, Ed Beighley, Eric Anderson, Rashied Amini, Charon Birkett, David Bjerklie, Cheryl Ann Blain, Selma Cherchali, Cédric H. David, Bradley Doorn, Jorge Escurra, Lee-Lueng Fu, Chris Frans, John Fulton, Subhrendu Gangopadhay, Subimal Ghosh, Colin Gleason, Marielle Gosset, Jessica Hausman, Gregg Jacobs, John Jones, Yasir Kaheil, Benoit Laignel, Patrick Le Moigne, Li Li, Fabien Lefèvre, Robert Mason, Amita Mehta, Abhijit Mukherjee, Anthony Nguy-Robertson, Sophie Ricci, Adrien Paris, Tamlin Pavelsky, Nicolas Picot, Guy Schumann, Sudhir Shrestha, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Eric Trehubenko
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