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J. Neumann
and
H. Flohn

Short- to medium-range weather forecasts were prepared by Soviet meteorologists for the Battle of Stalingrad. These included forecasts for days suitable for massing troops and equipment and for starting the Soviet offensive in November 1942 that resulted in the encirclement of the German 6th Army. Another forecast was connected with the operation of artificial thickening of the ice cover of the Volga River in the Stalingrad area that made it possible to drive tanks from the east bank to the west bank of the river (width: about 1 km).

In January 1943 a German Panzer army had to be withdrawn from the Caucasus. To accelerate the retreat, light elements of that army crossed some 42 km of the ice cover of the Gulf of Taganrog (Sea of Azov). The crossing was authorized after a meteorologist proved his estimate of the ice-cover thickness by landing in a light plane on the ice.

In January 1945 weather forecasts played an important role in the major Soviet (2 200 000 troops and 5 000 warplanes) Oder-Vistula offensive. Marshal Konev writes with appreciation of the correct weather forecasts.

In the Appendix, considerations that led German meteorologists to formulate a forecast for a minimum of five days of fog or low clouds from the Ardennes to southern England are reviewed. This forecast was used by the German High Command for the start of the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944.

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J. Neumann
and
H. Flohn

A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941–42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a ‘normal’ or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month.

A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter.

Hitler would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armee from Russia. The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941–42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.

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M. Y. Leclerc
,
R. H. Shaw
,
G. Den Hartog
, and
H. H. Neumann

Abstract

This paper shows that the inclusion of thermal effects is necessary to correctly interpret the physical processes involved in the generation or suppression of Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy inside a form canopy. In both of thew budgets, thermal effects are largest in the upper third of the canopy where the foliage is densest and the radiation load highest. The magnitude of the buoyant production term in both these budgets increases almost linearly with instability in the upper region of the canopy. The onset of stability exerts a strong influence on the behavior of the shear production in both the budgets of Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy. In strong thermal stratification, the shear production term becomes a sink of Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy in the lower half of the canopy.

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Kenneth R. Knapp
,
Michael C. Kruk
,
David H. Levinson
,
Howard J. Diamond
, and
Charles J. Neumann

The goal of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project is to collect the historical tropical cyclone best-track data from all available Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and other agencies, combine the disparate datasets into one product, and disseminate in formats used by the tropical cyclone community. Each RSMC forecasts and monitors storms for a specific region and annually archives best-track data, which consist of information on a storm's position, intensity, and other related parameters. IBTrACS is a new dataset based on the best-track data from numerous sources. Moreover, rather than preferentially selecting one track and intensity for each storm, the mean position, the original intensities from the agencies, and summary statistics are provided. This article discusses the dataset construction, explores the tropical cyclone climatology from IBTrACS, and concludes with an analysis of uncertainty in the tropical cyclone intensity record.

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S. M. Hristova-Veleva
,
P. S. Callahan
,
R. S. Dunbar
,
B. W. Stiles
,
S. H. Yueh
,
J. N. Huddleston
,
S. V. Hsiao
,
G. Neumann
,
B. A. Vanhoff
,
R. W. Gaston
,
E. Rodriguez
, and
D. E. Weissman

Abstract

Scatterometer ocean surface winds have been providing very valuable information to researchers and operational weather forecasters for over 10 years. However, the scatterometer wind retrievals are compromised when rain is present. Merely flagging all rain-affected areas removes the most dynamic and interesting areas from the wind analysis. Fortunately, the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-II) mission carried a radiometer [the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR)] and a scatterometer, allowing for independent, collocated retrievals of rain. The authors developed an algorithm that uses AMSR observations to estimate the rain inside the scatterometer beam. This is the first in a series of papers that describe their approach to providing rain estimation and correction to scatterometer observations. This paper describes the retrieval algorithm and evaluates it using simulated data. Part II will present its validation when applied to AMSR observations. This passive microwave rain retrieval algorithm addresses the issues of nonuniform beam filling and hydrometeor uncertainty in a novel way by 1) using a large number of soundings to develop the retrieval database, thus accounting for the geographically varying atmospheric parameters; 2) addressing the spatial inhomogeneity of rain by developing multiple retrieval databases with different built-in inhomogeneity and rain intensity, along with a “rain indicator” to select the most appropriate database for each observed scene; 3) developing a new cloud-versus-rain partitioning that allows the use of a variety of drop size distribution assumptions to account for some of the natural variability diagnosed from the soundings; and 4) retrieving atmospheric and surface parameters just outside the rainy areas, thus providing information about the environment to help decrease the uncertainty of the rain estimates.

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R. H. Moss
,
S. Avery
,
K. Baja
,
M. Burkett
,
A. M. Chischilly
,
J. Dell
,
P. A. Fleming
,
K. Geil
,
K. Jacobs
,
A. Jones
,
K. Knowlton
,
J. Koh
,
M. C. Lemos
,
J. Melillo
,
R. Pandya
,
T. C. Richmond
,
L. Scarlett
,
J. Snyder
,
M. Stults
,
A. Waple
,
J. Whitehead
,
D. Zarrilli
,
J. Fox
,
A. Ganguly
,
L. Joppa
,
S. Julius
,
P. Kirshen
,
R. Kreutter
,
A. McGovern
,
R. Meyer
,
J. Neumann
,
W. Solecki
,
J. Smith
,
P. Tissot
,
G. Yohe
, and
R. Zimmerman
Full access
R. H. Moss
,
S. Avery
,
K. Baja
,
M. Burkett
,
A. M. Chischilly
,
J. Dell
,
P. A. Fleming
,
K. Geil
,
K. Jacobs
,
A. Jones
,
K. Knowlton
,
J. Koh
,
M. C. Lemos
,
J. Melillo
,
R. Pandya
,
T. C. Richmond
,
L. Scarlett
,
J. Snyder
,
M. Stults
,
A. M. Waple
,
J. Whitehead
,
D. Zarrilli
,
B. M. Ayyub
,
J. Fox
,
A. Ganguly
,
L. Joppa
,
S. Julius
,
P. Kirshen
,
R. Kreutter
,
A. McGovern
,
R. Meyer
,
J. Neumann
,
W. Solecki
,
J. Smith
,
P. Tissot
,
G. Yohe
, and
R. Zimmerman

Abstract

As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal “climate assessment consortium” to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit–cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.

Open access