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- Author or Editor: Hatsuki Fujinami x
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Abstract
Convective variability at submonthly time scales (7–25 days) over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins (YHRBs) and associated large-scale atmospheric circulation during the mei-yu season were examined using interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for 12 yr having active submonthly convective fluctuation over the YHRBs within the period 1979–2004. Correlations between convection anomalies over the YHRBs and upper-level streamfunction anomalies at every grid point show two contrasting patterns. One pattern exhibits high correlations along the northern to eastern peripheries of the Tibetan Plateau (defined as the NET pattern), whereas the other has high correlations across the Tibetan Plateau (defined as the AT pattern). Composite analysis of the NET pattern shows slow southward migration of convection anomalies from the northeastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau to southern China, in relation to southward migration of the mei-yu front caused by simultaneous amplification of upper- and low-level waves north of the YHRBs. In the AT pattern, convection anomalies migrate eastward from the western Tibetan Plateau to the YHRBs. A low-level vortex is created at the lee of the plateau by eastward-moving upper-level wave packets and associated convection from the plateau. Rossby wave trains along the Asian jet characterize the upper-level circulation anomalies in the two patterns. The basic state of the Asian jet during the mei-yu season differs between the two patterns, especially around the Tibetan Plateau. The Asian jet has a northward arclike structure in NET years, while a zonal jet dominates in AT years. These differences could alter the Rossby wave train propagation route. Furthermore, the larger zonal wavenumber of AT waves (∼7–8) than of NET waves (∼6) means faster zonal phase speed relative to the ground in the AT pattern than in the NET pattern. These differences likely explain the meridional amplification of waves north of the YHRBs in the NET pattern and the eastward wave movement across the plateau in the AT pattern.
Abstract
Convective variability at submonthly time scales (7–25 days) over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins (YHRBs) and associated large-scale atmospheric circulation during the mei-yu season were examined using interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for 12 yr having active submonthly convective fluctuation over the YHRBs within the period 1979–2004. Correlations between convection anomalies over the YHRBs and upper-level streamfunction anomalies at every grid point show two contrasting patterns. One pattern exhibits high correlations along the northern to eastern peripheries of the Tibetan Plateau (defined as the NET pattern), whereas the other has high correlations across the Tibetan Plateau (defined as the AT pattern). Composite analysis of the NET pattern shows slow southward migration of convection anomalies from the northeastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau to southern China, in relation to southward migration of the mei-yu front caused by simultaneous amplification of upper- and low-level waves north of the YHRBs. In the AT pattern, convection anomalies migrate eastward from the western Tibetan Plateau to the YHRBs. A low-level vortex is created at the lee of the plateau by eastward-moving upper-level wave packets and associated convection from the plateau. Rossby wave trains along the Asian jet characterize the upper-level circulation anomalies in the two patterns. The basic state of the Asian jet during the mei-yu season differs between the two patterns, especially around the Tibetan Plateau. The Asian jet has a northward arclike structure in NET years, while a zonal jet dominates in AT years. These differences could alter the Rossby wave train propagation route. Furthermore, the larger zonal wavenumber of AT waves (∼7–8) than of NET waves (∼6) means faster zonal phase speed relative to the ground in the AT pattern than in the NET pattern. These differences likely explain the meridional amplification of waves north of the YHRBs in the NET pattern and the eastward wave movement across the plateau in the AT pattern.
Abstract
The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) is a dominant intraseasonal mode in summer rainfall over Bangladesh. Active phases of the QBW are often accompanied by low pressure systems (LPSs) such as vortex-type lows. This study investigated the effects of two intraseasonal modes, the QBW and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), on the genesis of LPSs over Bangladesh during 29 summer monsoon seasons. Daily lag composites of convection and low-level atmospheric circulation were constructed for active-phase cases with LPSs (LPS case) and without LPSs (non-LPS case) based on rainfall in the QBW over Bangladesh. In the QBW mode, a westward propagation of an anticyclonic anomaly from the western Pacific to the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is common in both cases. However, the anticyclonic center in the LPS case is located slightly to the east of that in the non-LPS case, which results in stronger cyclonic vorticity over and around Bangladesh. In contrast, the BSISO mode shows an opposite phase between the two cases: a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly propagating northward from the equator to the BoB in the LPS case (non-LPS case). In the LPS case, the cyclonic anomaly in the BSISO mode enhances the westerly (easterly) flow over the BoB (Bangladesh) in the active phase, resulting in the enhancement of cyclonic vorticity over the northern BoB and Bangladesh, in cooperation with the QBW mode. These results suggest that both the QBW and BSISO modes have significant influence on the environmental conditions for LPS genesis over Bangladesh.
Abstract
The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) is a dominant intraseasonal mode in summer rainfall over Bangladesh. Active phases of the QBW are often accompanied by low pressure systems (LPSs) such as vortex-type lows. This study investigated the effects of two intraseasonal modes, the QBW and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), on the genesis of LPSs over Bangladesh during 29 summer monsoon seasons. Daily lag composites of convection and low-level atmospheric circulation were constructed for active-phase cases with LPSs (LPS case) and without LPSs (non-LPS case) based on rainfall in the QBW over Bangladesh. In the QBW mode, a westward propagation of an anticyclonic anomaly from the western Pacific to the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is common in both cases. However, the anticyclonic center in the LPS case is located slightly to the east of that in the non-LPS case, which results in stronger cyclonic vorticity over and around Bangladesh. In contrast, the BSISO mode shows an opposite phase between the two cases: a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly propagating northward from the equator to the BoB in the LPS case (non-LPS case). In the LPS case, the cyclonic anomaly in the BSISO mode enhances the westerly (easterly) flow over the BoB (Bangladesh) in the active phase, resulting in the enhancement of cyclonic vorticity over the northern BoB and Bangladesh, in cooperation with the QBW mode. These results suggest that both the QBW and BSISO modes have significant influence on the environmental conditions for LPS genesis over Bangladesh.
Abstract
Characteristics of low pressure systems (LPSs) responsible for submonthly-scale (7–25 days) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in rainfall over Bangladesh and their impact on the amplitude of active peaks are investigated for 29 summer monsoon seasons. Extreme and moderate active peaks are obtained based on the amplitude of 7–25-day-filtered rainfall series. By detecting the LPSs that formed over the Indian monsoon region, it was found that about 59% (62%) of extreme (moderate) active peaks of rainfall are related to LPSs. These LPSs have horizontal scale of about 600 km and vertical scale of about 9 km. For the extreme active peak, the locations of the LPS centers are clustered significantly over and around Bangladesh, accompanied by the maximum convergence in the southeast sector of the LPSs. After their formation, they tend to remain almost stationary over and around Bangladesh. In contrast, for the moderate active peak, the LPS centers are located over the Ganges Plain around 85°E, and the maximum convergence of the LPSs occurs around their centers. This difference in the convergence fields is closely associated with the geographical features to the north and east of Bangladesh and the horizontal scale of the LPSs. These features suggest that the amplitude of the active peaks in the submonthly-scale ISO is modulated by small differences in the locations of the LPS centers. These findings suggest that improved predictions of both genesis location and the tracks of the LPSs are crucial to forecasting seasonal rainfall over Bangladesh.
Abstract
Characteristics of low pressure systems (LPSs) responsible for submonthly-scale (7–25 days) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in rainfall over Bangladesh and their impact on the amplitude of active peaks are investigated for 29 summer monsoon seasons. Extreme and moderate active peaks are obtained based on the amplitude of 7–25-day-filtered rainfall series. By detecting the LPSs that formed over the Indian monsoon region, it was found that about 59% (62%) of extreme (moderate) active peaks of rainfall are related to LPSs. These LPSs have horizontal scale of about 600 km and vertical scale of about 9 km. For the extreme active peak, the locations of the LPS centers are clustered significantly over and around Bangladesh, accompanied by the maximum convergence in the southeast sector of the LPSs. After their formation, they tend to remain almost stationary over and around Bangladesh. In contrast, for the moderate active peak, the LPS centers are located over the Ganges Plain around 85°E, and the maximum convergence of the LPSs occurs around their centers. This difference in the convergence fields is closely associated with the geographical features to the north and east of Bangladesh and the horizontal scale of the LPSs. These features suggest that the amplitude of the active peaks in the submonthly-scale ISO is modulated by small differences in the locations of the LPS centers. These findings suggest that improved predictions of both genesis location and the tracks of the LPSs are crucial to forecasting seasonal rainfall over Bangladesh.
Abstract
The environmental field of tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal is analyzed for the extended summer monsoon season (approximately May–November) using best-track and reanalysis data. Genesis potential index (GPI) is used to assess four possible environmental factors responsible for tropical cyclogenesis: lower-tropospheric absolute vorticity, vertical shear, potential intensity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. The climatological cyclogenesis is active within high GPI in the premonsoon (~May) and postmonsoon seasons (approximately October–November), which is attributed to weak vertical shear. The genesis of intense tropical cyclone is suppressed within the low GPI in the mature monsoon (approximately June–September), which is due to the strong vertical shear. In addition to the climatological seasonal transition, the authors’ composite analysis based on tropical cyclogenesis identified a high GPI signal moving northward with a periodicity of approximately 30–40 days, which is associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). In a composite analysis based on the BSISO phase, the active cyclogenesis occurs in the high GPI phase of BSISO. It is revealed that the high GPI of BSISO is attributed to high relative humidity and large absolute vorticity. Furthermore, in the mature monsoon season, when the vertical shear is climatologically strong, tropical cyclogenesis particularly favors the phase of BSISO that reduces vertical shear effectively. Thus, the combination of seasonal and intraseasonal effects is important for the tropical cyclogenesis, rather than the independent effects.
Abstract
The environmental field of tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal is analyzed for the extended summer monsoon season (approximately May–November) using best-track and reanalysis data. Genesis potential index (GPI) is used to assess four possible environmental factors responsible for tropical cyclogenesis: lower-tropospheric absolute vorticity, vertical shear, potential intensity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. The climatological cyclogenesis is active within high GPI in the premonsoon (~May) and postmonsoon seasons (approximately October–November), which is attributed to weak vertical shear. The genesis of intense tropical cyclone is suppressed within the low GPI in the mature monsoon (approximately June–September), which is due to the strong vertical shear. In addition to the climatological seasonal transition, the authors’ composite analysis based on tropical cyclogenesis identified a high GPI signal moving northward with a periodicity of approximately 30–40 days, which is associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). In a composite analysis based on the BSISO phase, the active cyclogenesis occurs in the high GPI phase of BSISO. It is revealed that the high GPI of BSISO is attributed to high relative humidity and large absolute vorticity. Furthermore, in the mature monsoon season, when the vertical shear is climatologically strong, tropical cyclogenesis particularly favors the phase of BSISO that reduces vertical shear effectively. Thus, the combination of seasonal and intraseasonal effects is important for the tropical cyclogenesis, rather than the independent effects.
Abstract
The atmospheric circulation patterns that were responsible for the heavy flooding that occurred in Thailand in 2011 are examined. This paper also investigates the interannual variation in precipitation over Indochina over a 33-yr period from 1979–2011, focusing on the role of westward-propagating tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Asian monsoon region. Cyclonic anomalies and more westward-propagating TCs than expected from the climatology of the area were observed in 2011 along the monsoon trough from the northern Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal, Indochina, and the western North Pacific, which contributed significantly to the 2011 Thai flood. The strength of monsoon westerlies was normal, which implies that the monsoon westerly was not responsible for the seasonal heavy rainfall in 2011. Similar results were also obtained from the 33-yr statistical analysis. The 5-month total precipitation over Indochina covaried interannually with that along the monsoon trough. In addition, above-normal precipitation over Indochina was observed when enhanced cyclonic circulation with more westward-propagating TCs along the monsoon trough was observed. Notably, the above-normal precipitation was not due to the enhanced monsoon westerly over Indochina. Therefore, the 2011 Thai flood was caused by the typical atmospheric circulation pattern for an above-normal precipitation year. It is noteworthy that the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing over the western North Pacific and the Niño-3.4 region on total precipitation during the summer rainy season over Indochina was unclear over the 33-yr period.
Abstract
The atmospheric circulation patterns that were responsible for the heavy flooding that occurred in Thailand in 2011 are examined. This paper also investigates the interannual variation in precipitation over Indochina over a 33-yr period from 1979–2011, focusing on the role of westward-propagating tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Asian monsoon region. Cyclonic anomalies and more westward-propagating TCs than expected from the climatology of the area were observed in 2011 along the monsoon trough from the northern Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal, Indochina, and the western North Pacific, which contributed significantly to the 2011 Thai flood. The strength of monsoon westerlies was normal, which implies that the monsoon westerly was not responsible for the seasonal heavy rainfall in 2011. Similar results were also obtained from the 33-yr statistical analysis. The 5-month total precipitation over Indochina covaried interannually with that along the monsoon trough. In addition, above-normal precipitation over Indochina was observed when enhanced cyclonic circulation with more westward-propagating TCs along the monsoon trough was observed. Notably, the above-normal precipitation was not due to the enhanced monsoon westerly over Indochina. Therefore, the 2011 Thai flood was caused by the typical atmospheric circulation pattern for an above-normal precipitation year. It is noteworthy that the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing over the western North Pacific and the Niño-3.4 region on total precipitation during the summer rainy season over Indochina was unclear over the 33-yr period.
Abstract
This study investigated atmospheric water cycles over several time scales to understand the maintenance processes that control heavy precipitation over the islands of the Maritime Continent. Large island regions can be divided into land, coastal, and ocean areas based on the characteristics of both the hydrologic cycle and the diurnal variation in precipitation. Within the Maritime Continent, the major islands of Borneo and New Guinea exhibit different hydrologic cycles. Large-scale circulation variations, such as the seasonal cycle and the Madden–Julian oscillation, have a lesser effect on the hydrologic cycle over Borneo than over New Guinea because the effects depend on their shapes and locations. The impact of diurnal variations on both regional-scale circulation and water exchange between land and coastal regions is pronounced over both islands. The recycling ratio of precipitation, which can be related to stronger diurnal variation in the atmospheric water cycle that results from enhanced evapotranspiration over tropical rain forests, is higher over Borneo than over New Guinea.
Abstract
This study investigated atmospheric water cycles over several time scales to understand the maintenance processes that control heavy precipitation over the islands of the Maritime Continent. Large island regions can be divided into land, coastal, and ocean areas based on the characteristics of both the hydrologic cycle and the diurnal variation in precipitation. Within the Maritime Continent, the major islands of Borneo and New Guinea exhibit different hydrologic cycles. Large-scale circulation variations, such as the seasonal cycle and the Madden–Julian oscillation, have a lesser effect on the hydrologic cycle over Borneo than over New Guinea because the effects depend on their shapes and locations. The impact of diurnal variations on both regional-scale circulation and water exchange between land and coastal regions is pronounced over both islands. The recycling ratio of precipitation, which can be related to stronger diurnal variation in the atmospheric water cycle that results from enhanced evapotranspiration over tropical rain forests, is higher over Borneo than over New Guinea.
Abstract
A numerical experiment with a 2-km resolution was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate physical processes driving nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas during the mature monsoon seasons between 2003 and 2010. The WRF Model simulations of increases in precipitation twice a day, one in the afternoon and another around midnight, over the Himalayan slopes, and of the single nocturnal peak over the Himalayan foothills were reasonably accurate. To understand the synoptic-scale moisture transport and its local-scale convergence generating the nocturnal precipitation, composite analyses were conducted using the reanalysis dataset and model outputs. In the synoptic scale, moisture transport associated with the westward propagation of low pressure systems was found when nocturnal precipitation dominated over the Himalayan slopes. In contrast, moisture was directly provided from the synoptic-scale monsoon westerlies for nocturnal precipitation over the foothills. The model outputs suggested that precipitation occurred on the mountain ridges in the Himalayas during the afternoon and expanded horizontally toward lower-elevation areas through the night. During the nighttime, the downslope wind was caused by radiative cooling at the surface and was intensified by evaporative cooling by hydrometeors in the near-surface layer. As a result, convergence between the downslope wind and the synoptic-scale flow promoted nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas and to the south, as well as the moisture convergence by orography and/or synoptic-scale circulation patterns. The nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas was not simulated well when we used the coarse topographic resolution and the smaller number of vertical layers.
Abstract
A numerical experiment with a 2-km resolution was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate physical processes driving nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas during the mature monsoon seasons between 2003 and 2010. The WRF Model simulations of increases in precipitation twice a day, one in the afternoon and another around midnight, over the Himalayan slopes, and of the single nocturnal peak over the Himalayan foothills were reasonably accurate. To understand the synoptic-scale moisture transport and its local-scale convergence generating the nocturnal precipitation, composite analyses were conducted using the reanalysis dataset and model outputs. In the synoptic scale, moisture transport associated with the westward propagation of low pressure systems was found when nocturnal precipitation dominated over the Himalayan slopes. In contrast, moisture was directly provided from the synoptic-scale monsoon westerlies for nocturnal precipitation over the foothills. The model outputs suggested that precipitation occurred on the mountain ridges in the Himalayas during the afternoon and expanded horizontally toward lower-elevation areas through the night. During the nighttime, the downslope wind was caused by radiative cooling at the surface and was intensified by evaporative cooling by hydrometeors in the near-surface layer. As a result, convergence between the downslope wind and the synoptic-scale flow promoted nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas and to the south, as well as the moisture convergence by orography and/or synoptic-scale circulation patterns. The nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas was not simulated well when we used the coarse topographic resolution and the smaller number of vertical layers.
Abstract
The characteristics of active rainfall spells (ARSs) at Cherrapunji, northeast India, where extreme high rainfall is experienced, and their relationships with large-scale dynamics were studied using daily rainfall data from 1902 to 2005 and Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis from 1958 to 2005. Extreme high daily rainfalls occur in association with ARSs. The extremely large amounts of rainfall in the monsoon season are determined by the cumulative rainfall during ARSs. ARSs start when anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) at 850 hPa propagates westward from the South China Sea and western North Pacific, and covers the northern Bay of Bengal. The AAC propagates farther westward and suppresses convection over central India during ARSs at Cherrapunji, and continues for 3 to 14 days. Consequently, a northward shift of the monsoon trough during the “break” in the Indian core region occurs. The westerly wind, which prevails in the northern portion of the AAC, transports moisture toward northeast India and enhances moisture convergence over northeast India with southerly moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal, and greatly intensifies the orographic rainfall. In the upper troposphere, the Tibetan high tends to extend southward with the onset of ARSs. A linear relationship can be seen between the length and total rainfall of an ARS. Longer ARSs tend to result in greater total rainfall. AACs with a greater zonal scale tend to produce longer and more intense ARSs. This study provides evidence for the effect of western North Pacific AACs on the Indian summer monsoon.
Abstract
The characteristics of active rainfall spells (ARSs) at Cherrapunji, northeast India, where extreme high rainfall is experienced, and their relationships with large-scale dynamics were studied using daily rainfall data from 1902 to 2005 and Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis from 1958 to 2005. Extreme high daily rainfalls occur in association with ARSs. The extremely large amounts of rainfall in the monsoon season are determined by the cumulative rainfall during ARSs. ARSs start when anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) at 850 hPa propagates westward from the South China Sea and western North Pacific, and covers the northern Bay of Bengal. The AAC propagates farther westward and suppresses convection over central India during ARSs at Cherrapunji, and continues for 3 to 14 days. Consequently, a northward shift of the monsoon trough during the “break” in the Indian core region occurs. The westerly wind, which prevails in the northern portion of the AAC, transports moisture toward northeast India and enhances moisture convergence over northeast India with southerly moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal, and greatly intensifies the orographic rainfall. In the upper troposphere, the Tibetan high tends to extend southward with the onset of ARSs. A linear relationship can be seen between the length and total rainfall of an ARS. Longer ARSs tend to result in greater total rainfall. AACs with a greater zonal scale tend to produce longer and more intense ARSs. This study provides evidence for the effect of western North Pacific AACs on the Indian summer monsoon.
Abstract
Southeast Asian tropical rain forests in the Maritime Continent are among the most important biomes in terms of global and regional water cycling. How land use and land cover change (LULCC) relating to deforestation and forest degradation alter the local hydroclimate over the island of Borneo is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an appropriate land surface model for describing the influence of changes in the vegetation status on the atmosphere. The model was validated against precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite 3B42 measurements. A main novelty in this analysis is that the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the island, which is a dominant climatic characteristic of the Maritime Continent, was successfully reproduced. To clarify the impact of the LULCC on the precipitation regimes over the island, numerical experiments were performed with the model that demonstrated the following. Deforestation that generates high albedo areas, such as bare lands, would induce a reduction in precipitation because of reductions in evapotranspiration, convection, and horizontal atmospheric moisture inflow. On the other hand, a decrease in evapotranspiration efficiency without changing the surface albedo could increase precipitation due to an increase in convection and horizontal atmospheric moisture inflow in compensation for the decrease in evapotranspiration. In detail, on the Maritime Continent, through changes in the land surface heating process and land–sea breeze circulation, the LULCC would impact the amplitude of the diurnal precipitation cycle in each region as defined according to the distance from the coast, resulting in changes in the precipitation regimes over the island.
Abstract
Southeast Asian tropical rain forests in the Maritime Continent are among the most important biomes in terms of global and regional water cycling. How land use and land cover change (LULCC) relating to deforestation and forest degradation alter the local hydroclimate over the island of Borneo is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an appropriate land surface model for describing the influence of changes in the vegetation status on the atmosphere. The model was validated against precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite 3B42 measurements. A main novelty in this analysis is that the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the island, which is a dominant climatic characteristic of the Maritime Continent, was successfully reproduced. To clarify the impact of the LULCC on the precipitation regimes over the island, numerical experiments were performed with the model that demonstrated the following. Deforestation that generates high albedo areas, such as bare lands, would induce a reduction in precipitation because of reductions in evapotranspiration, convection, and horizontal atmospheric moisture inflow. On the other hand, a decrease in evapotranspiration efficiency without changing the surface albedo could increase precipitation due to an increase in convection and horizontal atmospheric moisture inflow in compensation for the decrease in evapotranspiration. In detail, on the Maritime Continent, through changes in the land surface heating process and land–sea breeze circulation, the LULCC would impact the amplitude of the diurnal precipitation cycle in each region as defined according to the distance from the coast, resulting in changes in the precipitation regimes over the island.
