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Hermann J. Jakobs, Hendrik Feldmann, Heinz Hass, and Michael Memmesheimer


A multiple-nesting version of the European Acid Deposition Model (EURAD) has been developed in order to increase the horizontal resolution in a region of enhanced pollution, namely the former German Democratic Republic. This new technique allows the ability to simulate large-scale features together with the development of smaller-scale structures in the nested regions. This multiple-nesting approach was applied to a case that occurred in October 1990, the so-called SANA 1 episode. SANA is a German acronym that stands for “scientific program for the assessment of the air pollution situation in the former German Democratic Republic.” The SANA program was established to observe the rapid change in composition of air pollutants and their concentration levels over the eastern part of Germany due to political and economical changes. Thus, within the SANA program there is a unique chance to observe and control the effect of air quality strategies.

Two nested areas are embedded in a coarse domain that covers the main parts of Europe. The second nested domain is nested within the first nested domain. For EURAD, the nesting is two-way for the meteorological part and one-way for the chemistry transport module (CTM). This means that the meteorological variables that coincide with the boundaries in the nested domain are interpolated by a monotone flux-corrected transport method from the next coarser domain and provide a feedback from the nested domain to the next coarser domain. For the CTM the inflow boundary conditions are dynamically determined by interpolation from coarse-grid results. The outflow conditions are specified by continuous advection at the boundary in order to eliminate numerical reflections. The results of the simulations indicate a strong dependence of the horizontal distribution of both meteorological quantities and atmospheric constituents on increased spatial resolution. They exhibit a much more realistic structure, especially for the simulations in the nested domain with highest resolution (8.89-km horizontal grid distance). Comparisons for the predicted SO2 concentrations with observations from selected stations clearly demonstrate that the simulations agree best with observations in the nested domain of highest horizontal resolution.

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Barbara Früh, Hendrik Feldmann, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Gerd Schädler, Daniela Jacob, Philip Lorenz, and Klaus Keuler


To determine return values at various return periods for extreme daily precipitation events over complex orography, an appropriate threshold value and distribution function are required. The return values are calculated using the peak-over-threshold approach in which only a reduced sample of precipitation events exceeding a predefined threshold is analyzed. To fit the distribution function to the sample, the L-moment method is used. It is found that the deviation between the fitted return values and the plotting positions of the ranked precipitation events is smaller for the kappa distribution than for the generalized Pareto distribution.

As a second focus, the ability of regional climate models to realistically simulate extreme daily precipitation events is assessed. For this purpose the return values are derived using precipitation events exceeding the 90th percentile of the precipitation time series and a fit of a kappa distribution. The results of climate simulations with two different regional climate models are analyzed for the 30-yr period 1971–2000: the so-called consortium runs performed with the climate version of the Lokal Modell (referred to as the CLM-CR) at 18-km resolution and the Regional Model (REMO)–Umweltbundesamt (UBA) simulations at 10-km resolution. It was found that generally the return values are overestimated by both models. Averaged across the region the overestimation is higher for REMO–UBA compared to CLM-CR.

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Irena Ott, Doris Duethmann, Joachim Liebert, Peter Berg, Hendrik Feldmann, Juergen Ihringer, Harald Kunstmann, Bruno Merz, Gerd Schaedler, and Sven Wagner


The impact of climate change on three small- to medium-sized river catchments (Ammer, Mulde, and Ruhr) in Germany is investigated for the near future (2021–50) following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. A 10-member ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations, based on two high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs), with three realizations of ECHAM5 (E5) and one realization of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis version 3 (CCCma3; C3) is established. All GCM simulations are downscaled by the RCM Community Land Model (CLM), and one realization of E5 is downscaled also with the RCM Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This concerted 7-km, high-resolution RCM ensemble provides a sound basis for runoff simulations of small catchments and is currently unique for Germany. The hydrology for each catchment is simulated in an overlapping scheme, with two of the three HMs used in the project. The resulting ensemble hence contains for each chain link (GCM–realization–RCM–HM) at least two members and allows the investigation of qualitative and limited quantitative indications of the existence and uncertainty range of the change signal. The ensemble spread in the climate change signal is large and varies with catchment and season, and the results show that most of the uncertainty of the change signal arises from the natural variability in winter and from the RCMs in summer.

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Jochem Marotzke, Wolfgang A. Müller, Freja S. E. Vamborg, Paul Becker, Ulrich Cubasch, Hendrik Feldmann, Frank Kaspar, Christoph Kottmeier, Camille Marini, Iuliia Polkova, Kerstin Prömmel, Henning W. Rust, Detlef Stammer, Uwe Ulbrich, Christopher Kadow, Armin Köhl, Jürgen Kröger, Tim Kruschke, Joaquim G. Pinto, Holger Pohlmann, Mark Reyers, Marc Schröder, Frank Sienz, Claudia Timmreck, and Markus Ziese


Mittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that target future operational use.

Three prediction system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multiyear-mean European summer surface temperatures, extratropical cyclone tracks, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption.

MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization.

Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of 2–3 years.

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