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- Author or Editor: Henny van Lanen x
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Abstract
Drought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. In Europe, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) monitors the ongoing drought and forecasts soil moisture anomalies up to 7 days ahead and meteorological drought up to 3 months ahead. However, end users managing water resources often require hydrological drought warning several months in advance. To answer this challenge, a seasonal pan-European DEWS has been developed and has been running in a preoperational mode since mid-2018 under the EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) project. The ANYWHERE DEWS (AD-EWS) is different than other operational DEWS in the sense that the AD-EWS provides a wide range of seasonal hydrometeorological drought forecasting products in addition to meteorological drought, that is, a broad suite of drought indices that covers all water cycle components (drought in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, discharge, and groundwater). The ability of the AD-EWS to provide seasonal drought predictions in high spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) and its diverse products mark the AD-EWS as a preoperational drought forecasting system that can serve a broad range of different users’ needs in Europe. This paper introduces the AD-EWS and shows some examples of different drought forecasting products, the drought forecast score, and some examples of a user-driven assessment of forecast trust levels.
Abstract
Drought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. In Europe, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) monitors the ongoing drought and forecasts soil moisture anomalies up to 7 days ahead and meteorological drought up to 3 months ahead. However, end users managing water resources often require hydrological drought warning several months in advance. To answer this challenge, a seasonal pan-European DEWS has been developed and has been running in a preoperational mode since mid-2018 under the EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) project. The ANYWHERE DEWS (AD-EWS) is different than other operational DEWS in the sense that the AD-EWS provides a wide range of seasonal hydrometeorological drought forecasting products in addition to meteorological drought, that is, a broad suite of drought indices that covers all water cycle components (drought in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, discharge, and groundwater). The ability of the AD-EWS to provide seasonal drought predictions in high spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) and its diverse products mark the AD-EWS as a preoperational drought forecasting system that can serve a broad range of different users’ needs in Europe. This paper introduces the AD-EWS and shows some examples of different drought forecasting products, the drought forecast score, and some examples of a user-driven assessment of forecast trust levels.
Abstract
Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and increasing water scarcity linked to increasing greenhouse gases. So far, however, the most important impacts on water resources are the direct interventions by humans, such as dams, water extractions, and river channel modifications. The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project is a major international initiative to bring together climate and water scientists to better understand the current and future water cycle. This paper summarizes the underlying motivation for the WATCH project and the major results from a series of papers published or soon to be published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology WATCH special collection. At its core is the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP), which brings together a wide range of global hydrological and land surface models run with consistent driving data. It is clear that we still have considerable uncertainties in the future climate drivers and in how the river systems will respond to these changes. There is a grand challenge to the hydrological and climate communities to both reduce these uncertainties and communicate them to a wider society.
Abstract
Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and increasing water scarcity linked to increasing greenhouse gases. So far, however, the most important impacts on water resources are the direct interventions by humans, such as dams, water extractions, and river channel modifications. The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project is a major international initiative to bring together climate and water scientists to better understand the current and future water cycle. This paper summarizes the underlying motivation for the WATCH project and the major results from a series of papers published or soon to be published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology WATCH special collection. At its core is the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP), which brings together a wide range of global hydrological and land surface models run with consistent driving data. It is clear that we still have considerable uncertainties in the future climate drivers and in how the river systems will respond to these changes. There is a grand challenge to the hydrological and climate communities to both reduce these uncertainties and communicate them to a wider society.
