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Naoki Hirose, Hyun-Chul Lee, and Jong-Hwan Yoon

Abstract

Climatological monthly mean variations of the surface heat fluxes over the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea are calculated by both a data analysis and a numerical simulation. The result of the data analysis based on the empirical/bulk method agrees well with the directly observed solar radiation and several previous studies of the surface heat fluxes. An adjustment in the formation of the Haney-type heat flux is presented by comparing to the result of the bulk method. The numerical simulation of these seas using an ocean general circulation model demonstrates the success of the improved Haney-type condition over the original one in simulating sea surface temperature. The surface heat flux simulated in the Yellow Sea is more reasonable than by the data analysis considering the total heat budget of this sea.

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Minkyu Lee, Dong-Hyun Cha, Myoung-Seok Suh, Eun-Chul Chang, Joong-Bae Ahn, Seung-Ki Min, and Young-Hwa Byun

Abstract

This study evaluated tropical cyclone (TC) activity simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs) incorporated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework with two different horizontal resolutions. Evaluation experiments with two RCMs (RegCM4 and MM5) forced by reanalysis data were conducted over the CORDEX-East Asia domain for phases I and II. The main difference between phases I and II is horizontal resolution (50 and 25 km). The 20-yr (1989–2008) mean performances of the experiments were investigated in terms of TC genesis, track, intensity, and TC-induced precipitation. In general, the simulated TC activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) varied depending on the model type and horizontal resolution. For both models, higher horizontal resolution improved the simulation of TC tracks near the coastal regions of East Asia, whereas the coarser horizontal resolution led to underestimated TC genesis compared with the best track data because of greater convective precipitation and enhanced atmospheric stabilization. In addition, the increased horizontal resolution prominently improved the simulation of TCs landfalling in East Asia and associated precipitation around coastal regions. This finding implies that high-resolution RCMs can improve the simulation of TC activities over the WNP (i.e., added value by increasing model resolution); thus, they have an advantage in climate change assessment studies.

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Chanil Park, Seok-Woo Son, Hera Kim, Yoo-Geun Ham, Joowan Kim, Dong-Hyun Cha, Eun-Chul Chang, GyuWon Lee, Jong-Seong Kug, Woo-Seop Lee, Yun-Young Lee, Hee Choon Lee, and Byunghwan Lim

Abstract

In the summer of 2020, South Korea experienced record-breaking rainfall due to 15 consecutive heavy rainfall events (HREs) from mid-June to early September. Among them, 11 HREs occurred in late June to mid-August with distinct synoptic characteristics depending on the occurrence period. All HREs from 29 June to 27 July (P1) were triggered by extratropical cyclones, while those from 28 July to 15 August (P2) mainly occurred along the monsoon rainband. We argue that their transition is associated with atmospheric teleconnections. During P1, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) anomalously extended westward, but its northward expansion was hindered by the meridional wave train from the suppressed convection over the South China Sea. This condition prevented a northward migration of the monsoon rainband but allowed more extratropical cyclones to pass over the Korean Peninsula, resulting in four HREs. During P2, the South China Sea convection was enhanced, and its circulation response prompted an abrupt northward expansion of the WNPSH with a large pressure gradient along its northern boundary. With intensified southwesterly moisture transport, a monsoon rainband was activated over the Korean Peninsula, producing six HREs. The opposite phases of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, i.e., negative in P1 but positive in P2, further contributed to the anomalous monsoon circulation by modulating the midlatitude circulation response to the South China Sea convection. This study demonstrates that the nature of summertime HREs in East Asia can be strongly modulated by remote forcings.

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R. J. Stouffer, A. J. Broccoli, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, R. Gudgel, I. Held, R. Hemler, T. Knutson, Hyun-Chul Lee, M. D. Schwarzkopf, B. Soden, M. J. Spelman, M. Winton, and Fanrong Zeng

Abstract

The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented.

Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR).

The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).

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Thomas L. Delworth, Anthony Rosati, Whit Anderson, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Rusty Benson, Keith Dixon, Stephen M. Griffies, Hyun-Chul Lee, Ronald C. Pacanowski, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang

Abstract

The authors present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.5 (GFDL CM2.5)]. The GFDL CM2.5 has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 km in the tropics to 8 km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes.

Analyses are presented based on the output of a 280-yr control simulation; also presented are results based on a 140-yr simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% yr−1 until doubling after 70 yr.

Results are compared to GFDL CM2.1, which has somewhat similar physics but a coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5.

The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.

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Stephen M. Griffies, Michael Winton, Leo J. Donner, Larry W. Horowitz, Stephanie M. Downes, Riccardo Farneti, Anand Gnanadesikan, William J. Hurlin, Hyun-Chul Lee, Zhi Liang, Jaime B. Palter, Bonita L. Samuels, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Bruce L. Wyman, Jianjun Yin, and Niki Zadeh

Abstract

This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier CM2.1 yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. The authors anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than in CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.

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Anand Gnanadesikan, Keith W. Dixon, Stephen M. Griffies, V. Balaji, Marcelo Barreiro, J. Anthony Beesley, William F. Cooke, Thomas L. Delworth, Rudiger Gerdes, Matthew J. Harrison, Isaac M. Held, William J. Hurlin, Hyun-Chul Lee, Zhi Liang, Giang Nong, Ronald C. Pacanowski, Anthony Rosati, Joellen Russell, Bonita L. Samuels, Qian Song, Michael J. Spelman, Ronald J. Stouffer, Colm O. Sweeney, Gabriel Vecchi, Michael Winton, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and John P. Dunne

Abstract

The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.

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Thomas L. Delworth, Anthony J. Broccoli, Anthony Rosati, Ronald J. Stouffer, V. Balaji, John A. Beesley, William F. Cooke, Keith W. Dixon, John Dunne, K. A. Dunne, Jeffrey W. Durachta, Kirsten L. Findell, Paul Ginoux, Anand Gnanadesikan, C. T. Gordon, Stephen M. Griffies, Rich Gudgel, Matthew J. Harrison, Isaac M. Held, Richard S. Hemler, Larry W. Horowitz, Stephen A. Klein, Thomas R. Knutson, Paul J. Kushner, Amy R. Langenhorst, Hyun-Chul Lee, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jian Lu, Sergey L. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, V. Ramaswamy, Joellen Russell, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J. Sirutis, Michael J. Spelman, William F. Stern, Michael Winton, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang

Abstract

The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved.

Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments.

The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic.

Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).

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Leo J. Donner, Bruce L. Wyman, Richard S. Hemler, Larry W. Horowitz, Yi Ming, Ming Zhao, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Paul Ginoux, S.-J. Lin, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, John Austin, Ghassan Alaka, William F. Cooke, Thomas L. Delworth, Stuart M. Freidenreich, C. T. Gordon, Stephen M. Griffies, Isaac M. Held, William J. Hurlin, Stephen A. Klein, Thomas R. Knutson, Amy R. Langenhorst, Hyun-Chul Lee, Yanluan Lin, Brian I. Magi, Sergey L. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, Vaishali Naik, Mary J. Nath, Robert Pincus, Jeffrey J. Ploshay, V. Ramaswamy, Charles J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J. Sirutis, William F. Stern, Ronald J. Stouffer, R. John Wilson, Michael Winton, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and Fanrong Zeng

Abstract

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol–cloud interactions, chemistry–climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future—for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth’s surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of the twentieth century warm in CM3 by 0.32°C relative to 1881–1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of 0.56° and 0.52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol–cloud interactions, and its warming by the late twentieth century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed 0.66°C but did not include aerosol–cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud–aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming.

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