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Abstract
A convectively generated mesoscale vortex that was instrumental in initiating and organizing five successive mesoscale convective systems over a period of three days is documented. Two of these convective systems were especially intense and resulted in widespread heavy rain with localized flooding. Based upon radar and satellite data, the detectable size of the vortex became much larger following the strong convective developments, nearly tripling its initial diameter over its three-day life cycle. During nighttime, when convection typically intensified within the vortex, movement of the system tended to slow. Following dissipation of the convection in the morning, the daytime movement accelerated.
Cross sections of potential vorticity taken through the vortex center clearly show a maximum at midlevels and a well-defined minimum directly above. The vortex and the potential vorticity maximum were essentially colocated and the system was nearly axisymmetric in the vertical. Over the three-day life cycle of the system, the strength of the vortex, as measured by the magnitude of the midlevel potential vorticity maximum, steadily increased.
At low levels, isentropic surfaces sloped upward from the rear of the potential vorticity anomaly into the vortex center so that relatively fast-moving low-level southwesterly flow, which was overtaking the slow-moving vortex from the rear, ascended as it approached the vortex center. Computations of the magnitude and duration of the ascent indicate that the lifting was sufficient to initiate new convection only if parcels realized the maximum possible ascent by flowing into the innermost region of the vortex circulation. In support of this interpretation, satellite observations show that new convection repeatedly developed near the vortex center instead of along well-defined surface outflow boundaries that encircled the convective system. A conceptual model describing the redevelopment mechanism is presented.
Analyses of the large-scale environment of the vortex show that it formed and persisted in a deep and broad zone of southwesterly flow just upstream of a synoptic-scale ridge. At tropopause levels, a large anticyclone covered the region. Potential buoyant energy in the vortex environment typically ranged from about 1000 J kg−1 at 1200 UTC to 1900 J kg−1 at 0000 UTC. Extreme values were as large as 3500 J kg−1. Except for a low-level jet, wind speed and vertical wind shear were relatively small throughout the troposphere, especially in the vortex-bearing layer (700–300 mb) where shear values were only about 0.8 × 10−3 s−1. The deep midlevel layer of weak shear provided a favorable environment for the formation and persistence of the nearly axisymmetric vertical disturbance.
Since the vortex formed and grew over land, this study demonstrates that warm-core mesovortex genesis and amplification do not require heat and moisture fluxes from a tropical marine surface. Evidently, ambient CAPE is sufficient for vortex formation and limited growth. However, since the vortex growth primarily occurred in the middle troposphere, and since anticyclonic outflow was usually present at the surface, marine surface fluxes may be necessary for transformation of such convectively generated vortices into surface-based tropical disturbances.
Abstract
A convectively generated mesoscale vortex that was instrumental in initiating and organizing five successive mesoscale convective systems over a period of three days is documented. Two of these convective systems were especially intense and resulted in widespread heavy rain with localized flooding. Based upon radar and satellite data, the detectable size of the vortex became much larger following the strong convective developments, nearly tripling its initial diameter over its three-day life cycle. During nighttime, when convection typically intensified within the vortex, movement of the system tended to slow. Following dissipation of the convection in the morning, the daytime movement accelerated.
Cross sections of potential vorticity taken through the vortex center clearly show a maximum at midlevels and a well-defined minimum directly above. The vortex and the potential vorticity maximum were essentially colocated and the system was nearly axisymmetric in the vertical. Over the three-day life cycle of the system, the strength of the vortex, as measured by the magnitude of the midlevel potential vorticity maximum, steadily increased.
At low levels, isentropic surfaces sloped upward from the rear of the potential vorticity anomaly into the vortex center so that relatively fast-moving low-level southwesterly flow, which was overtaking the slow-moving vortex from the rear, ascended as it approached the vortex center. Computations of the magnitude and duration of the ascent indicate that the lifting was sufficient to initiate new convection only if parcels realized the maximum possible ascent by flowing into the innermost region of the vortex circulation. In support of this interpretation, satellite observations show that new convection repeatedly developed near the vortex center instead of along well-defined surface outflow boundaries that encircled the convective system. A conceptual model describing the redevelopment mechanism is presented.
Analyses of the large-scale environment of the vortex show that it formed and persisted in a deep and broad zone of southwesterly flow just upstream of a synoptic-scale ridge. At tropopause levels, a large anticyclone covered the region. Potential buoyant energy in the vortex environment typically ranged from about 1000 J kg−1 at 1200 UTC to 1900 J kg−1 at 0000 UTC. Extreme values were as large as 3500 J kg−1. Except for a low-level jet, wind speed and vertical wind shear were relatively small throughout the troposphere, especially in the vortex-bearing layer (700–300 mb) where shear values were only about 0.8 × 10−3 s−1. The deep midlevel layer of weak shear provided a favorable environment for the formation and persistence of the nearly axisymmetric vertical disturbance.
Since the vortex formed and grew over land, this study demonstrates that warm-core mesovortex genesis and amplification do not require heat and moisture fluxes from a tropical marine surface. Evidently, ambient CAPE is sufficient for vortex formation and limited growth. However, since the vortex growth primarily occurred in the middle troposphere, and since anticyclonic outflow was usually present at the surface, marine surface fluxes may be necessary for transformation of such convectively generated vortices into surface-based tropical disturbances.
Abstract
Many efforts have been taken to find energy alternatives to reduce anthropogenic influences on climate. Recent studies have shown that using land for bioenergy plantations may be more cost effective and provide a greater potential for CO2 abatement than using land for carbon sequestration. Native southern U.S. pines (i.e., loblolly) have excellent potential as bioenergy feedstocks. However, the land-cover change due to expansion of biofuels may impact climate through biophysical feedbacks. Here, the authors access the local and remote consequences of greater forest management and biofuel feedstock expansion on climate and hydrology using a global climate model, the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4).
The authors examine a plausible U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) biofuel feedstock goal by afforesting 50 million acres of C4 grasslands in the southeastern United States with an optimized loblolly plant functional type. Changes in sensible and latent heat fluxes are related to increased surface roughness, reduced bare-ground evaporation, and changes in stomatal conductance. In the coupled simulations, these mechanisms lead to a 1°C cooling, higher atmospheric stability, and a more shallow planetary boundary layer over the southeastern United States during the summer; in winter, a cooling of up to 0.25°C between 40° and 60°N, a weakened Aleutian low, and a wetter Australia occurs. A weakened Aleutian low shifts the North Pacific storm track poleward in the future loblolly scenarios. These local and global impacts suggest that biophysical feedbacks need to be considered when evaluating the benefits of bioenergy feedstock production.
Abstract
Many efforts have been taken to find energy alternatives to reduce anthropogenic influences on climate. Recent studies have shown that using land for bioenergy plantations may be more cost effective and provide a greater potential for CO2 abatement than using land for carbon sequestration. Native southern U.S. pines (i.e., loblolly) have excellent potential as bioenergy feedstocks. However, the land-cover change due to expansion of biofuels may impact climate through biophysical feedbacks. Here, the authors access the local and remote consequences of greater forest management and biofuel feedstock expansion on climate and hydrology using a global climate model, the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4).
The authors examine a plausible U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) biofuel feedstock goal by afforesting 50 million acres of C4 grasslands in the southeastern United States with an optimized loblolly plant functional type. Changes in sensible and latent heat fluxes are related to increased surface roughness, reduced bare-ground evaporation, and changes in stomatal conductance. In the coupled simulations, these mechanisms lead to a 1°C cooling, higher atmospheric stability, and a more shallow planetary boundary layer over the southeastern United States during the summer; in winter, a cooling of up to 0.25°C between 40° and 60°N, a weakened Aleutian low, and a wetter Australia occurs. A weakened Aleutian low shifts the North Pacific storm track poleward in the future loblolly scenarios. These local and global impacts suggest that biophysical feedbacks need to be considered when evaluating the benefits of bioenergy feedstock production.
Abstract
An important impact of climate change on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems is the increase of extended warm spells during winter. We apply crossing theory to the central England temperature time series of winter daily maximum temperatures to quantify how increased occurrence of higher temperatures translates into more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense winter warm spells. We find since the late 1800s an overall two- to threefold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells. A winter warm spell of 5 days in duration with daytime maxima above 13°C has a return period that was often over 5 years but now is consistently below 4 years. Weeklong warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed ~13°C. The observed changes in the temporal pattern of environmental variability will affect the phenology of ecological processes and the structure and functioning of ecosystems.
Abstract
An important impact of climate change on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems is the increase of extended warm spells during winter. We apply crossing theory to the central England temperature time series of winter daily maximum temperatures to quantify how increased occurrence of higher temperatures translates into more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense winter warm spells. We find since the late 1800s an overall two- to threefold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells. A winter warm spell of 5 days in duration with daytime maxima above 13°C has a return period that was often over 5 years but now is consistently below 4 years. Weeklong warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed ~13°C. The observed changes in the temporal pattern of environmental variability will affect the phenology of ecological processes and the structure and functioning of ecosystems.
Abstract
A unique storm identification and tracking method is analyzed in varying storm environments within the United States spanning 273 hours in 2018. The methodology uses a quantity calculated through fusion of radar-based vertically integrated liquid (VIL) and satellite-based GLM flash rate density (FRD) called VILFRD to identify storms in space and time. This research analyzes GLM data use within VILFRD for the first time (method original: O), assesses four modifications to VILFRD implementation to find a more stable storm size with time (method new: N), larger storms (method original dilated: OD), or both (method new dilated: ND), and compares VILFRD methods with storm tracking using the 35-dBZ isosurface at −10°C (method non-VILFRD: NV). A case study analysis from 2019 is included to assess methods on a smaller scale and introduce a “lightning only” (LO) version of VILFRD. Large study results highlight that VILFRD-based storm identification produces smaller storms with more lightning than the NV method, and the NV method produces larger storms with a more stable size over time. Methods N and ND create smaller storm size fluctuations, but size changes more often. Dilation (OD, ND) creates larger storms and almost double the number of storms identified relative to nondilated methods (O, N, NV). The case study results closely resemble the large sample results and show that the LO method identifies storms with more lightning and shorter durations. Overall, these findings can aid in choice of storm tracking method based on desired user application and promote further testing of a lightning-only version of VILFRD.
Abstract
A unique storm identification and tracking method is analyzed in varying storm environments within the United States spanning 273 hours in 2018. The methodology uses a quantity calculated through fusion of radar-based vertically integrated liquid (VIL) and satellite-based GLM flash rate density (FRD) called VILFRD to identify storms in space and time. This research analyzes GLM data use within VILFRD for the first time (method original: O), assesses four modifications to VILFRD implementation to find a more stable storm size with time (method new: N), larger storms (method original dilated: OD), or both (method new dilated: ND), and compares VILFRD methods with storm tracking using the 35-dBZ isosurface at −10°C (method non-VILFRD: NV). A case study analysis from 2019 is included to assess methods on a smaller scale and introduce a “lightning only” (LO) version of VILFRD. Large study results highlight that VILFRD-based storm identification produces smaller storms with more lightning than the NV method, and the NV method produces larger storms with a more stable size over time. Methods N and ND create smaller storm size fluctuations, but size changes more often. Dilation (OD, ND) creates larger storms and almost double the number of storms identified relative to nondilated methods (O, N, NV). The case study results closely resemble the large sample results and show that the LO method identifies storms with more lightning and shorter durations. Overall, these findings can aid in choice of storm tracking method based on desired user application and promote further testing of a lightning-only version of VILFRD.
The 11th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Education Symposium was held from 13 to 15 January 2002 in Orlando, Florida, as part of the 82nd Annual Meeting of the AMS. The theme of the symposium was “creating opportunities in educational outreach in the atmospheric and related sciences.” Drawing from traditional strengths in meteorology and numerous national recommendations, the presentations and posters of the symposium highlighted three opportunities for reform. These opportunities build on partnerships between diverse educational stakeholders, efforts to make science education more like scientific practice, and strategies that place the atmospheric sciences within a larger, multidisciplinary context that includes oceanography, hydrology, and earth-system science.
The 11th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Education Symposium was held from 13 to 15 January 2002 in Orlando, Florida, as part of the 82nd Annual Meeting of the AMS. The theme of the symposium was “creating opportunities in educational outreach in the atmospheric and related sciences.” Drawing from traditional strengths in meteorology and numerous national recommendations, the presentations and posters of the symposium highlighted three opportunities for reform. These opportunities build on partnerships between diverse educational stakeholders, efforts to make science education more like scientific practice, and strategies that place the atmospheric sciences within a larger, multidisciplinary context that includes oceanography, hydrology, and earth-system science.
Abstract
The initiation of ice in an isolated orographic wave cloud was compared with expectations based on ice nucleating aerosol concentrations and with predictions from new ice nucleation parameterizations applied in a cloud parcel model. Measurements of ice crystal number concentrations were found to be in good agreement both with measured number concentrations of ice nuclei feeding the clouds and with ice nuclei number concentrations determined from the residual nuclei of cloud particles collected by a counterflow virtual impactor. Using lognormal distributions fitted to measured aerosol size distributions and measured aerosol chemical compositions, ice nuclei and ice crystal concentrations in the wave cloud were reasonably well predicted in a 1D parcel model framework. Two different empirical parameterizations were used in the parcel model: a parameterization based on aerosol chemical type and surface area and a parameterization that links ice nuclei number concentrations to the number concentrations of particles with diameters larger than 0.5 μm. This study shows that aerosol size distribution and composition measurements can be used to constrain ice initiation by primary nucleation in models. The data and model results also suggest the likelihood that the dust particle mode of the aerosol size distribution controls the number concentrations of the heterogeneous ice nuclei, at least for the lower temperatures examined in this case.
Abstract
The initiation of ice in an isolated orographic wave cloud was compared with expectations based on ice nucleating aerosol concentrations and with predictions from new ice nucleation parameterizations applied in a cloud parcel model. Measurements of ice crystal number concentrations were found to be in good agreement both with measured number concentrations of ice nuclei feeding the clouds and with ice nuclei number concentrations determined from the residual nuclei of cloud particles collected by a counterflow virtual impactor. Using lognormal distributions fitted to measured aerosol size distributions and measured aerosol chemical compositions, ice nuclei and ice crystal concentrations in the wave cloud were reasonably well predicted in a 1D parcel model framework. Two different empirical parameterizations were used in the parcel model: a parameterization based on aerosol chemical type and surface area and a parameterization that links ice nuclei number concentrations to the number concentrations of particles with diameters larger than 0.5 μm. This study shows that aerosol size distribution and composition measurements can be used to constrain ice initiation by primary nucleation in models. The data and model results also suggest the likelihood that the dust particle mode of the aerosol size distribution controls the number concentrations of the heterogeneous ice nuclei, at least for the lower temperatures examined in this case.
FluxEngine: A Flexible Processing System for Calculating Atmosphere–Ocean Carbon Dioxide Gas Fluxes and ClimatologiesAbstract
The air–sea flux of greenhouse gases [e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2)] is a critical part of the climate system and a major factor in the biogeochemical development of the oceans. More accurate and higher-resolution calculations of these gas fluxes are required if researchers are to fully understand and predict future climate. Satellite Earth observation is able to provide large spatial-scale datasets that can be used to study gas fluxes. However, the large storage requirements needed to host such data can restrict its use by the scientific community. Fortunately, the development of cloud computing can provide a solution. This paper describes an open-source air–sea CO2 flux processing toolbox called the “FluxEngine,” designed for use on a cloud-computing infrastructure. The toolbox allows users to easily generate global and regional air–sea CO2 flux data from model, in situ, and Earth observation data, and its air–sea gas flux calculation is user configurable. Its current installation on the Nephalae Cloud allows users to easily exploit more than 8 TB of climate-quality Earth observation data for the derivation of gas fluxes. The resultant netCDF data output files contain >20 data layers containing the various stages of the flux calculation along with process indicator layers to aid interpretation of the data. This paper describes the toolbox design, which verifies the air–sea CO2 flux calculations; demonstrates the use of the tools for studying global and shelf sea air–sea fluxes; and describes future developments.
Abstract
The air–sea flux of greenhouse gases [e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2)] is a critical part of the climate system and a major factor in the biogeochemical development of the oceans. More accurate and higher-resolution calculations of these gas fluxes are required if researchers are to fully understand and predict future climate. Satellite Earth observation is able to provide large spatial-scale datasets that can be used to study gas fluxes. However, the large storage requirements needed to host such data can restrict its use by the scientific community. Fortunately, the development of cloud computing can provide a solution. This paper describes an open-source air–sea CO2 flux processing toolbox called the “FluxEngine,” designed for use on a cloud-computing infrastructure. The toolbox allows users to easily generate global and regional air–sea CO2 flux data from model, in situ, and Earth observation data, and its air–sea gas flux calculation is user configurable. Its current installation on the Nephalae Cloud allows users to easily exploit more than 8 TB of climate-quality Earth observation data for the derivation of gas fluxes. The resultant netCDF data output files contain >20 data layers containing the various stages of the flux calculation along with process indicator layers to aid interpretation of the data. This paper describes the toolbox design, which verifies the air–sea CO2 flux calculations; demonstrates the use of the tools for studying global and shelf sea air–sea fluxes; and describes future developments.
Abstract
A grand challenge from the wind energy industry is to provide reliable forecasts on mountain winds several hours in advance at microscale (∼100 m) resolution. This requires better microscale wind-energy physics included in forecasting tools, for which field observations are imperative. While mesoscale (∼1 km) measurements abound, microscale processes are not monitored in practice nor do plentiful measurements exist at this scale. After a decade of preparation, a group of European and U.S. collaborators conducted a field campaign during 1 May–15 June 2017 in Vale Cobrão in central Portugal to delve into microscale processes in complex terrain. This valley is nestled within a parallel double ridge near the town of Perdigão with dominant wind climatology normal to the ridges, offering a nominally simple yet natural setting for fundamental studies. The dense instrument ensemble deployed covered a ∼4 km × 4 km swath horizontally and ∼10 km vertically, with measurement resolutions of tens of meters and seconds. Meteorological data were collected continuously, capturing multiscale flow interactions from synoptic to microscales, diurnal variability, thermal circulation, turbine wake and acoustics, waves, and turbulence. Particularly noteworthy are the extensiveness of the instrument array, space–time scales covered, use of leading-edge multiple-lidar technology alongside conventional tower and remote sensors, fruitful cross-Atlantic partnership, and adaptive management of the campaign. Preliminary data analysis uncovered interesting new phenomena. All data are being archived for public use.
Abstract
A grand challenge from the wind energy industry is to provide reliable forecasts on mountain winds several hours in advance at microscale (∼100 m) resolution. This requires better microscale wind-energy physics included in forecasting tools, for which field observations are imperative. While mesoscale (∼1 km) measurements abound, microscale processes are not monitored in practice nor do plentiful measurements exist at this scale. After a decade of preparation, a group of European and U.S. collaborators conducted a field campaign during 1 May–15 June 2017 in Vale Cobrão in central Portugal to delve into microscale processes in complex terrain. This valley is nestled within a parallel double ridge near the town of Perdigão with dominant wind climatology normal to the ridges, offering a nominally simple yet natural setting for fundamental studies. The dense instrument ensemble deployed covered a ∼4 km × 4 km swath horizontally and ∼10 km vertically, with measurement resolutions of tens of meters and seconds. Meteorological data were collected continuously, capturing multiscale flow interactions from synoptic to microscales, diurnal variability, thermal circulation, turbine wake and acoustics, waves, and turbulence. Particularly noteworthy are the extensiveness of the instrument array, space–time scales covered, use of leading-edge multiple-lidar technology alongside conventional tower and remote sensors, fruitful cross-Atlantic partnership, and adaptive management of the campaign. Preliminary data analysis uncovered interesting new phenomena. All data are being archived for public use.
Abstract
A data assimilation system (DAS) is described for global atmospheric reanalysis from 0- to 100-km altitude. We apply it to the 2014 austral winter of the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE), an international field campaign focused on gravity wave dynamics from 0 to 100 km, where an absence of reanalysis above 60 km inhibits research. Four experiments were performed from April to September 2014 and assessed for reanalysis skill above 50 km. A four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) run specified initial background error covariances statically. A hybrid-4DVAR (HYBRID) run formed background error covariances from an 80-member forecast ensemble blended with a static estimate. Each configuration was run at low and high horizontal resolution. In addition to operational observations below 50 km, each experiment assimilated 
Abstract
A data assimilation system (DAS) is described for global atmospheric reanalysis from 0- to 100-km altitude. We apply it to the 2014 austral winter of the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE), an international field campaign focused on gravity wave dynamics from 0 to 100 km, where an absence of reanalysis above 60 km inhibits research. Four experiments were performed from April to September 2014 and assessed for reanalysis skill above 50 km. A four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) run specified initial background error covariances statically. A hybrid-4DVAR (HYBRID) run formed background error covariances from an 80-member forecast ensemble blended with a static estimate. Each configuration was run at low and high horizontal resolution. In addition to operational observations below 50 km, each experiment assimilated
