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S. A. Good, G. K. Corlett, J. J. Remedios, E. J. Noyes, and D. T. Llewellyn-Jones

Abstract

The trend in sea surface temperature has been determined from 20 yr of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Pathfinder data (version 5). The data span the period from January 1985 to December 2004, inclusive. The linear trends were calculated to be 0.18° ± 0.04° and 0.17° ± 0.05°C decade−1 from daytime and nighttime data, respectively. However, the measured trends were found to be somewhat smaller if version 4.1 of the Pathfinder data was used, or if the time series of data ended earlier. The influence of El Niño on global temperatures can be seen clearly in the data. However, it was not found to affect the trend measurements significantly. Evidence of cool temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed.

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F. W. Taylor, A. Lambert, R. G. Grainger, C. D. Rodgers, and J. J. Remedios

Abstract

Observations of polar stratospheric clouds by the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) experiment on the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) have revealed new details of their global properties and behavior. These include the vertical and horizontal spatial distributions of Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) as a function of time and air temperature, their optical thicknesses and estimated densities, their spectral properties, and their inferred composition. In particular, ISAMS spectral data allows different PSC types to be distinguished from each other and from volcanic aerosol by their compositional differences. Northern PSCs during the 1991/92 season are found to be more ephemeral and more compact than reported in previous years and to differ markedly in scale from those in the Southern Hemisphere, which cause the Antarctic ozone hole by activating stratospheric chlorine chemistry. There were only two episodes of dense PSC formation in the 1991/92 northern winter, one of which took place in sunlight. The latter correlates well with UARS/Microwave Limb Sounder observations of enhanced chlorine monoxide, but substantial amounts of chlorine monoxide were also reported at times and places with at most very minor PSC activity.

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S. L. Ruth, J. J. Remedios, B. N. Lawrence, and F. W. Taylor

Abstract

Measurements of stratospheric nitrous oxide made by the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) during the period 28 October 1991–18 January 1992 are presented. The data are consistent with the dynamical fields at the time, and are in extremely good qualitative agreement with similar data from the Nimbus-7 SAMS and the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instruments, although in some regions the values are higher than have been obtained elsewhere. A major problem in the retrieval of the data has been contamination of the measured signal by aerosol emitted during the Mount Pinatubo eruption of June 1991. Despite the uncertainty in the values, the ISAMS N2O measurements provide a unique opportunity to study the synoptic evolution of a long-lived chemical tracer throughout the early winter, with near-continuous high-resolution measurements. The zonally averaged data are shown, as well as the measurements in the Northern Hemisphere on the 1150-K isentropic surface, with reference to temperature and wind fields from the same period derived also from ISAMS measurements. Finally, along-track cross sections are shown, which illustrate in greater detail the vertical and horizontal structure of the northern winter vortex region.

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D. R. Allen, J. L. Stanford, M. A. López-Valverde, N. Nakamura, D. J. Lary, A. R. Douglass, M. C. Cerniglia, J. J. Remedios, and F. W. Taylor

Abstract

Structure and kinematics of carbon monoxide in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (10–0.03 hPa) are studied for the early northern winter 1991/92 using the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) measurements. The study is aided by data from a 6-week parameterized-chemistry run of the Goddard Space Flight Center 3D Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM), initialized on 8 December 1991.

Generally, CO mixing ratios increase with height due to the increasing source contribution from CO2 photolysis. In the tropical upper stratosphere, however, a local maximum in CO mixing ratio occurs. A simple photochemical model is used to show that this feature results largely from methane oxidation.

In the extratropics the photochemical lifetime of CO is long, and therefore its evolution is dictated by large-scale motion of air, evidenced by strong correlation with Ertel potential vorticity. This makes CO one of the few useful observable tracers at the stratopause level and above. Thus CO maps are used to study the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex in early January 1992.

Modified Lagrangian mean mixing diagnostics are applied to ISAMS and CTM data to examine the strength of the mixing barrier at the polar vortex edge. It is demonstrated that planetary wave activity weakens the barrier, promoting vortex erosion. The vortex erosion first appears in the lower mesosphere and subsequently descends through the upper stratosphere, and is attributed to effects of planetary wave dissipation.

Agreement between ISAMS and CTM is good in the horizontal distribution of CO throughout the examined period, but vertical CO gradients in the CTM weaken with time relative to the ISAMS observations.

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W. Feng, M. P. Chipperfield, H. K. Roscoe, J. J. Remedios, A. M. Waterfall, G. P. Stiller, N. Glatthor, M. Höpfner, and D.-Y. Wang

Abstract

An offline 3D chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to study the evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole during the sudden warming event of 2002 and to compare it with similar simulations for 2000. The CTM has a detailed stratospheric chemistry scheme and was forced by ECMWF and Met Office analyses. Both sets of meteorological analyses permit the CTM to produce a good simulation of the evolution of the 2002 vortex and its breakup, based on O3 comparisons with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) column data, sonde data, and first results from the Environmental Satellite–Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (ENVISAT–MIPAS) instrument. The ozone chemical loss rates in the polar lower stratosphere in September 2002 were generally less than in 2000, because of the smaller average active chlorine, although around the time of the warming, the largest vortex chemical loss rates were similar to those in 2000 (i.e., −2.6 DU day−1 between 12 and 26 km). However, the disturbed vortex of 2002 caused a somewhat larger influence of polar processing on Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes in September. Overall, the calculations show that the average SH chemical O3 loss (poleward of 30°S) by September was ∼20 DU less in 2002 compared with 2000. A significant contribution to the much larger observed polar O3 column in September 2002 was due to the enhanced descent at the vortex edge and increased horizontal transport, associated with the distorted vortex.

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Nick A. Rayner, Renate Auchmann, Janette Bessembinder, Stefan Brönnimann, Yuri Brugnara, Francesco Capponi, Laura Carrea, Emma M. A. Dodd, Darren Ghent, Elizabeth Good, Jacob L. Høyer, John J. Kennedy, Elizabeth C. Kent, Rachel E. Killick, Paul van der Linden, Finn Lindgren, Kristine S. Madsen, Christopher J. Merchant, Joel R. Mitchelson, Colin P. Morice, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Patricio F. Ortiz, John J. Remedios, Gerard van der Schrier, Antonello A. Squintu, Ag Stephens, Peter W. Thorne, Rasmus T. Tonboe, Tim Trent, Karen L. Veal, Alison M. Waterfall, Kate Winfield, Jonathan Winn, and R. Iestyn Woolway

Abstract

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways, but daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. Therefore, a global daily picture cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone and needs to incorporate estimates from satellite retrievals. This article presents the science developed in the EU Horizon 2020–funded EUSTACE project (2015–19, www.eustaceproject.org) to produce global and European multidecadal ensembles of daily analyses of surface air temperature complementary to those from dynamical reanalyses, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Relationships between surface air temperature measurements and satellite-based estimates of surface skin temperature over all surfaces of Earth (land, ocean, ice, and lakes) are quantified. Information contained in the satellite retrievals then helps to estimate air temperature and create global fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place; this needs efficient statistical analysis methods to cope with the considerable data volumes. Daily fields are presented as ensembles to enable propagation of uncertainties through applications. Estimated temperatures and their uncertainties are evaluated against independent measurements and other surface temperature datasets. Achievements in the EUSTACE project have also included fundamental preparatory work useful to others, for example, gathering user requirements, identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations, carefully quantifying uncertainties in satellite skin and air temperature estimates, exploring the interaction between air temperature and lakes, developing statistical models relevant to non-Gaussian variables, and methods for efficient computation.

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