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Abstract
Operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts of three cases of explosive cyclogenesis of large magnitude that occurred in the North Atlantic during a 1-week period in January 1986 are presented, and results of numerical experiments performed on the three cases are described. Two of the cases were well predicted, and the third was not. The experiments were aimed at 1) determining the contribution of latent heat release to the explosive deepenings in the two cases that were well predicted and 2) diagnosing the cause of the poorer forecast performance in the third case.
It was found that condensation heating accounted for 40%–50% of the deepening in the well-predicted cases and that most of the heating derived from stable, frontal type precipitation rather than from convective precipitation. The results of the attempt to determine the cause of the relative failure of the third forecast were inconclusive but pointed toward problems in the initial analysis. In particular, there was evidence that the initial analysis failed to capture fully the high moisture content and low static stability of the warm sector air that was ingested into the heart of the storm during the rapidly deepening stage.
Abstract
Operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts of three cases of explosive cyclogenesis of large magnitude that occurred in the North Atlantic during a 1-week period in January 1986 are presented, and results of numerical experiments performed on the three cases are described. Two of the cases were well predicted, and the third was not. The experiments were aimed at 1) determining the contribution of latent heat release to the explosive deepenings in the two cases that were well predicted and 2) diagnosing the cause of the poorer forecast performance in the third case.
It was found that condensation heating accounted for 40%–50% of the deepening in the well-predicted cases and that most of the heating derived from stable, frontal type precipitation rather than from convective precipitation. The results of the attempt to determine the cause of the relative failure of the third forecast were inconclusive but pointed toward problems in the initial analysis. In particular, there was evidence that the initial analysis failed to capture fully the high moisture content and low static stability of the warm sector air that was ingested into the heart of the storm during the rapidly deepening stage.
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in Antarctic precipitation is evaluated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses and ECMWF 15-yr (1979–93) reanalyses. Operational and reanalysis datasets indicate that the ENSO teleconnection with Antarctic precipitation is manifested through a close positive correlation between the Southern Oscillation index and West Antarctic sector (75°–90°S, 120°W–180°) precipitation from the early 1980s to 1990, and a close negative correlation after 1990. However, a comparison between the operational analyses and reanalyses shows significant differences in net precipitation (P − E) due to contrasts in the mean component of moisture flux convergence into the West Antarctic sector. These contrasts are primarily due to the mean winds, which differ significantly between the operational analyses and the reanalyses for the most reliable period of overlap (1985–93). Some of the differences in flow pattern are attributed to an error in the reanalysis assimilation of Vostok station data that suppresses the geopotential heights over East Antarctica. Reanalysis geopotential heights are also suppressed over the Southern Ocean, where there is a known cold bias below 300 hPa. Deficiencies in ECMWF reanalyses result in a weaker ENSO signal in Antarctic precipitation and cause them to miss the significant upward trend in precipitation found in recent operational analyses. Ice-core analyses reflect both an upward trend in ice accumulation and the ENSO teleconnection correlation pattern seen in the operational analyses. This study confirms the results of a previous study using ECMWF operational analyses that was the first to find a strong correlation pattern between the moisture budget over the West Antarctic sector and the Southern Oscillation index.
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in Antarctic precipitation is evaluated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses and ECMWF 15-yr (1979–93) reanalyses. Operational and reanalysis datasets indicate that the ENSO teleconnection with Antarctic precipitation is manifested through a close positive correlation between the Southern Oscillation index and West Antarctic sector (75°–90°S, 120°W–180°) precipitation from the early 1980s to 1990, and a close negative correlation after 1990. However, a comparison between the operational analyses and reanalyses shows significant differences in net precipitation (P − E) due to contrasts in the mean component of moisture flux convergence into the West Antarctic sector. These contrasts are primarily due to the mean winds, which differ significantly between the operational analyses and the reanalyses for the most reliable period of overlap (1985–93). Some of the differences in flow pattern are attributed to an error in the reanalysis assimilation of Vostok station data that suppresses the geopotential heights over East Antarctica. Reanalysis geopotential heights are also suppressed over the Southern Ocean, where there is a known cold bias below 300 hPa. Deficiencies in ECMWF reanalyses result in a weaker ENSO signal in Antarctic precipitation and cause them to miss the significant upward trend in precipitation found in recent operational analyses. Ice-core analyses reflect both an upward trend in ice accumulation and the ENSO teleconnection correlation pattern seen in the operational analyses. This study confirms the results of a previous study using ECMWF operational analyses that was the first to find a strong correlation pattern between the moisture budget over the West Antarctic sector and the Southern Oscillation index.
Several new types of satellite instrument will provide improved measurements of Earth's hydrological cycle and the humidity of the atmosphere. In an effort to make the best possible use of these data, the modeling and assimilation of humidity, clouds, and precipitation are currently the subjects of a comprehensive research program at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Impacts on weather prediction and climate reanalysis can be expected. The preparations for cloud and rain assimilation within ECMWF's four-dimensional variational data assimilation system include the development of linearized moist physics, the development of fast radiative transfer codes for cloudy and precipitating conditions, and a reformulation of the humidity analysis scheme.
Results of model validations against in situ moisture data are presented, indicating generally good agreement—often to within the absolute calibration accuracy of the measurements. Evidence is also presented of shortcomings in ECMWF's humidity analysis, from the operational data assimilation and forecasting system in 2002, and from the recently completed ERA-40 reanalysis project. Examples are shown of biases in the data and in the model that lead to biased humidity analyses. Although these biases are relatively small, they contribute to an overprediction of tropical precipitation and to an overly intense Hadley circulation at the start of the forecast, with rapid adjustments taking place during the first 6–12 h. It is shown that with an improved humidity analysis this long-standing “spindown” problem can be reduced.
Several new types of satellite instrument will provide improved measurements of Earth's hydrological cycle and the humidity of the atmosphere. In an effort to make the best possible use of these data, the modeling and assimilation of humidity, clouds, and precipitation are currently the subjects of a comprehensive research program at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Impacts on weather prediction and climate reanalysis can be expected. The preparations for cloud and rain assimilation within ECMWF's four-dimensional variational data assimilation system include the development of linearized moist physics, the development of fast radiative transfer codes for cloudy and precipitating conditions, and a reformulation of the humidity analysis scheme.
Results of model validations against in situ moisture data are presented, indicating generally good agreement—often to within the absolute calibration accuracy of the measurements. Evidence is also presented of shortcomings in ECMWF's humidity analysis, from the operational data assimilation and forecasting system in 2002, and from the recently completed ERA-40 reanalysis project. Examples are shown of biases in the data and in the model that lead to biased humidity analyses. Although these biases are relatively small, they contribute to an overprediction of tropical precipitation and to an overly intense Hadley circulation at the start of the forecast, with rapid adjustments taking place during the first 6–12 h. It is shown that with an improved humidity analysis this long-standing “spindown” problem can be reduced.
Abstract
The contribution of heterogeneous ice nucleation to the formation of cirrus cloud ice crystals is still not well quantified. This results in large uncertainties when predicting cirrus radiative effects and their role in Earth’s climate system. The goal of this case study is to simulate the composition, and thus activation conditions, of ice nucleating particles (INPs) to evaluate their contribution to heterogeneous cirrus ice formation in relation to homogeneous ice nucleation. For this, the regional model COSMO—Aerosols and Reactive Trace Gases (COSMO-ART) was used to simulate a synoptic cirrus cloud over Texas on 13 April 2011. The simulated INP composition was then compared to measured ice residual particle (IRP) composition from the actual event obtained during the NASA Midlatitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment (MACPEX) aircraft campaign. These IRP measurements indicated that the dominance of heterogeneous ice nucleation was mainly driven by mineral dust with contributions from a variety of other particle types. Applying realistic activation thresholds and concentrations of airborne transported mineral dust and biomass-burning particles, the model implementing the heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization scheme of Ullrich et al. is able to reproduce the overall dominating ice formation mechanism in contrast to the model simulation with the scheme of Phillips et al. However, the model showed flaws in reproducing the IRP composition.
Abstract
The contribution of heterogeneous ice nucleation to the formation of cirrus cloud ice crystals is still not well quantified. This results in large uncertainties when predicting cirrus radiative effects and their role in Earth’s climate system. The goal of this case study is to simulate the composition, and thus activation conditions, of ice nucleating particles (INPs) to evaluate their contribution to heterogeneous cirrus ice formation in relation to homogeneous ice nucleation. For this, the regional model COSMO—Aerosols and Reactive Trace Gases (COSMO-ART) was used to simulate a synoptic cirrus cloud over Texas on 13 April 2011. The simulated INP composition was then compared to measured ice residual particle (IRP) composition from the actual event obtained during the NASA Midlatitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment (MACPEX) aircraft campaign. These IRP measurements indicated that the dominance of heterogeneous ice nucleation was mainly driven by mineral dust with contributions from a variety of other particle types. Applying realistic activation thresholds and concentrations of airborne transported mineral dust and biomass-burning particles, the model implementing the heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization scheme of Ullrich et al. is able to reproduce the overall dominating ice formation mechanism in contrast to the model simulation with the scheme of Phillips et al. However, the model showed flaws in reproducing the IRP composition.
Abstract
The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment took place around the urban region of Manaus in central Amazonia across 2 years. The urban pollution plume was used to study the susceptibility of gases, aerosols, clouds, and rainfall to human activities in a tropical environment. Many aspects of air quality, weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and climate work differently in the tropics than in the more thoroughly studied temperate regions of Earth. GoAmazon2014/5, a cooperative project of Brazil, Germany, and the United States, employed an unparalleled suite of measurements at nine ground sites and on board two aircraft to investigate the flow of background air into Manaus, the emissions into the air over the city, and the advection of the pollution downwind of the city. Herein, to visualize this train of processes and its effects, observations aboard a low-flying aircraft are presented. Comparative measurements within and adjacent to the plume followed the emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon compounds (BVOCs) from the tropical forest, their transformations by the atmospheric oxidant cycle, alterations of this cycle by the influence of the pollutants, transformations of the chemical products into aerosol particles, the relationship of these particles to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity, and the differences in cloud properties and rainfall for background compared to polluted conditions. The observations of the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment illustrate how the hydrologic cycle, radiation balance, and carbon recycling may be affected by present-day as well as future economic development and pollution over the Amazonian tropical forest.
Abstract
The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment took place around the urban region of Manaus in central Amazonia across 2 years. The urban pollution plume was used to study the susceptibility of gases, aerosols, clouds, and rainfall to human activities in a tropical environment. Many aspects of air quality, weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and climate work differently in the tropics than in the more thoroughly studied temperate regions of Earth. GoAmazon2014/5, a cooperative project of Brazil, Germany, and the United States, employed an unparalleled suite of measurements at nine ground sites and on board two aircraft to investigate the flow of background air into Manaus, the emissions into the air over the city, and the advection of the pollution downwind of the city. Herein, to visualize this train of processes and its effects, observations aboard a low-flying aircraft are presented. Comparative measurements within and adjacent to the plume followed the emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon compounds (BVOCs) from the tropical forest, their transformations by the atmospheric oxidant cycle, alterations of this cycle by the influence of the pollutants, transformations of the chemical products into aerosol particles, the relationship of these particles to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity, and the differences in cloud properties and rainfall for background compared to polluted conditions. The observations of the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment illustrate how the hydrologic cycle, radiation balance, and carbon recycling may be affected by present-day as well as future economic development and pollution over the Amazonian tropical forest.
Abstract
The European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations 2 (ERA-CLIM2) is a European Union Seventh Framework Project started in January 2014 and due to be completed in December 2017. It aims to produce coupled reanalyses, which are physically consistent datasets describing the evolution of the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and the carbon cycle. ERA-CLIM2 has contributed to advancing the capacity for producing state-of-the-art climate reanalyses that extend back to the early twentieth century. ERA-CLIM2 has led to the generation of the first European ensemble of coupled ocean, sea ice, land, and atmosphere reanalyses of the twentieth century. The project has funded work to rescue and prepare observations and to advance the data-assimilation systems required to generate operational reanalyses, such as the ones planned by the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service. This paper summarizes the main goals of the project, discusses some of its main areas of activities, and presents some of its key results.
Abstract
The European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations 2 (ERA-CLIM2) is a European Union Seventh Framework Project started in January 2014 and due to be completed in December 2017. It aims to produce coupled reanalyses, which are physically consistent datasets describing the evolution of the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and the carbon cycle. ERA-CLIM2 has contributed to advancing the capacity for producing state-of-the-art climate reanalyses that extend back to the early twentieth century. ERA-CLIM2 has led to the generation of the first European ensemble of coupled ocean, sea ice, land, and atmosphere reanalyses of the twentieth century. The project has funded work to rescue and prepare observations and to advance the data-assimilation systems required to generate operational reanalyses, such as the ones planned by the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service. This paper summarizes the main goals of the project, discusses some of its main areas of activities, and presents some of its key results.
