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- Author or Editor: J. W. Kaiser x
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Abstract
Undisturbed trade-wind conditions compose the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai‘i and produce a distinct pattern of orographic rainfall. Significant total rainfall contributions and extreme events are linked to four types of atmospheric disturbances: cold fronts, kona lows, upper-tropospheric disturbances, and tropical cyclones. In this study, a 20-yr (1990–2010) categorical disturbance time series is compiled and analyzed in relation to daily rainfall over the same period. The primary objective of this research is to determine how disturbances contribute to total wet-season rainfall on the Island of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. On average, 41% of wet-seasonal rainfall occurs on disturbance days. A total of 17% of seasonal rainfall can be directly attributed to disturbances (after a background signal is removed) and as much as 48% in a single season. The intensity of disturbance rainfall (mm day−1) is a stronger predictor (r 2 = 0.49; p < 0.001) of the total seasonal rainfall than the frequency of occurrence (r 2 = 0.11; p = 0.153). Cold fronts are the most common disturbance type; however, the rainfall associated with fronts that cross the island is significantly higher than rainfall produced from noncrossing fronts. In fact, noncrossing fronts produce significantly less rainfall than under mean nondisturbance conditions 76% of the time. While the combined influence of atmospheric disturbances can account for almost one-half of the rainfall received during the wet season, the primary factor in determining a relatively wet or dry season/year on Oʻahu is the frequency and rainfall intensity of kona low events.
Abstract
Undisturbed trade-wind conditions compose the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai‘i and produce a distinct pattern of orographic rainfall. Significant total rainfall contributions and extreme events are linked to four types of atmospheric disturbances: cold fronts, kona lows, upper-tropospheric disturbances, and tropical cyclones. In this study, a 20-yr (1990–2010) categorical disturbance time series is compiled and analyzed in relation to daily rainfall over the same period. The primary objective of this research is to determine how disturbances contribute to total wet-season rainfall on the Island of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. On average, 41% of wet-seasonal rainfall occurs on disturbance days. A total of 17% of seasonal rainfall can be directly attributed to disturbances (after a background signal is removed) and as much as 48% in a single season. The intensity of disturbance rainfall (mm day−1) is a stronger predictor (r 2 = 0.49; p < 0.001) of the total seasonal rainfall than the frequency of occurrence (r 2 = 0.11; p = 0.153). Cold fronts are the most common disturbance type; however, the rainfall associated with fronts that cross the island is significantly higher than rainfall produced from noncrossing fronts. In fact, noncrossing fronts produce significantly less rainfall than under mean nondisturbance conditions 76% of the time. While the combined influence of atmospheric disturbances can account for almost one-half of the rainfall received during the wet season, the primary factor in determining a relatively wet or dry season/year on Oʻahu is the frequency and rainfall intensity of kona low events.
Abstract
An unprecedented stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2002 led to the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole into two parts. The Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) on the European Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) performed continuous observations of limb-scattered solar radiance spectra throughout the stratospheric warming. Thereby, global measurements of vertical profiles of several important minor constituents are provided with a vertical resolution of about 3 km. In this study, stratospheric profiles of O3, NO2, and BrO retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb-scattering observations together with polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) observations for selected days prior to (12 September), during (27 September), and after (2 October) the ozone hole split are employed to provide a picture of the temporal evolution of the Antarctic stratosphere’s three-dimensional structure.
Abstract
An unprecedented stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2002 led to the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole into two parts. The Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) on the European Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) performed continuous observations of limb-scattered solar radiance spectra throughout the stratospheric warming. Thereby, global measurements of vertical profiles of several important minor constituents are provided with a vertical resolution of about 3 km. In this study, stratospheric profiles of O3, NO2, and BrO retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb-scattering observations together with polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) observations for selected days prior to (12 September), during (27 September), and after (2 October) the ozone hole split are employed to provide a picture of the temporal evolution of the Antarctic stratosphere’s three-dimensional structure.
The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a comprehensive monitoring and forecasting system for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, aerosol, and regional air quality. The project is funded by the European Commission as part of the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) framework. GEMS has extended the data assimilation system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to include various tracers for which satellite observations exist. A chemical transport model has been coupled to this system to account for the atmospheric chemistry. The GEMS system provides lateral boundary conditions for a set of 10 regional air quality forecast models and global atmospheric fields for use in surface flux inversions for the greenhouse gases. Observations from both in situ and satellite sources are used as input, and the output products will serve users such as policy makers, environmental agencies, the science community, and providers of end-user services for air quality and health. This article provides an overview of GEMS and uses some recent results to illustrate the current status of the project. It is expected that GEMS will grow into a full operational service for the atmospheric component of GMES in the next decade. Part of this transition will be the merge with the Protocol Monitoring for the GMES Service Element: Atmosphere (PROMOTE) GMES project into the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project.
The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a comprehensive monitoring and forecasting system for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, aerosol, and regional air quality. The project is funded by the European Commission as part of the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) framework. GEMS has extended the data assimilation system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to include various tracers for which satellite observations exist. A chemical transport model has been coupled to this system to account for the atmospheric chemistry. The GEMS system provides lateral boundary conditions for a set of 10 regional air quality forecast models and global atmospheric fields for use in surface flux inversions for the greenhouse gases. Observations from both in situ and satellite sources are used as input, and the output products will serve users such as policy makers, environmental agencies, the science community, and providers of end-user services for air quality and health. This article provides an overview of GEMS and uses some recent results to illustrate the current status of the project. It is expected that GEMS will grow into a full operational service for the atmospheric component of GMES in the next decade. Part of this transition will be the merge with the Protocol Monitoring for the GMES Service Element: Atmosphere (PROMOTE) GMES project into the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project.
Abstract
The Coordinating Earth Observation Data Validation for Reanalysis for Climate Services project (CORE-CLIMAX) aimed to substantiate how Copernicus observations and products can contribute to climate change analyses. CORE-CLIMAX assessed the European capability to provide climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs), prepared a structured process to derive CDRs, developed a harmonized approach for validating essential climate variable CDRs, identified the integration of CDRs into the reanalysis chain, and formulated a process to compare the results of different reanalysis techniques. With respect to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the systematic application and further development of the CORE-CLIMAX system maturity matrix (SMM) and the spinoff application performance metric (APM) were strongly endorsed to be involved in future implementations of C3S. We concluded that many of the current CDRs are not yet sufficiently mature to be used in reanalysis or applied in climate studies. Thus, the production of consistent high-resolution data records remains a challenge that needs more research urgently. Extending ECVs to close climate cycle budgets (e.g., essential water variables) is a next step linking CDRs to sectoral applications.
Abstract
The Coordinating Earth Observation Data Validation for Reanalysis for Climate Services project (CORE-CLIMAX) aimed to substantiate how Copernicus observations and products can contribute to climate change analyses. CORE-CLIMAX assessed the European capability to provide climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs), prepared a structured process to derive CDRs, developed a harmonized approach for validating essential climate variable CDRs, identified the integration of CDRs into the reanalysis chain, and formulated a process to compare the results of different reanalysis techniques. With respect to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the systematic application and further development of the CORE-CLIMAX system maturity matrix (SMM) and the spinoff application performance metric (APM) were strongly endorsed to be involved in future implementations of C3S. We concluded that many of the current CDRs are not yet sufficiently mature to be used in reanalysis or applied in climate studies. Thus, the production of consistent high-resolution data records remains a challenge that needs more research urgently. Extending ECVs to close climate cycle budgets (e.g., essential water variables) is a next step linking CDRs to sectoral applications.
Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.
Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.
