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- Author or Editor: James Connell x
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Abstract
Within the thunderstorm there is an extensive region of collision between airflows having different transports of momentum. The inflow-updraft should interact with cloud layer environmental wind to produce counter-rotating vortex pairs somewhat like those produced in the laboratory by a jet in a crossflow. Atmospheric evidence of vortex pairs for severe thunderstorms is shown from measurements made by aircraft and by radar.
A model of a non-thermal mechanism for low pressure centers in thunderstorms is developed which scales from the laboratory to the atmosphere using a turbulence Reynolds number, a velocity ratio and the diameter of the updraft. Central pressure deficits and vorticity of lee vortices scaled up from the laboratory observations are consistent with the few available thunderstorm measurements.
The model is used to explain deviate motion of thunderstorms as well as to suggest a mechanism for tornado development and movement.
Abstract
Within the thunderstorm there is an extensive region of collision between airflows having different transports of momentum. The inflow-updraft should interact with cloud layer environmental wind to produce counter-rotating vortex pairs somewhat like those produced in the laboratory by a jet in a crossflow. Atmospheric evidence of vortex pairs for severe thunderstorms is shown from measurements made by aircraft and by radar.
A model of a non-thermal mechanism for low pressure centers in thunderstorms is developed which scales from the laboratory to the atmosphere using a turbulence Reynolds number, a velocity ratio and the diameter of the updraft. Central pressure deficits and vorticity of lee vortices scaled up from the laboratory observations are consistent with the few available thunderstorm measurements.
The model is used to explain deviate motion of thunderstorms as well as to suggest a mechanism for tornado development and movement.
Abstract
GOES-8 visible and infrared cloud frequency composites have been created from imagery collected during June, July, and August for the years 1996–99 over northern Florida. These cloud frequency composites are unique because they offer high-resolution coverage over a small area and have been tailored to address forecast needs. Both monthly and regime cloud frequency composites are presented. Nine regimes were designated to reflect the strength and development of the sea-breeze front under various synoptic winds and the resulting effect on convective development. The regimes were designated by mean boundary layer wind speed and direction over the region of interest. Results from four of the regimes are presented.
A total of 222 days (60% of all possible days) were designated for the various wind regimes. Regime 4 (W to SW flow) occurred most frequently (24%) and had the most widespread distribution of higher cloud frequency, occurring both near the coast and inland. Regime 2, with contrasting E to NE flow, was the next most frequently occurring regime (17%) and had lower cloud frequencies, particularly inland in Alabama and Georgia. Regime 5, with strong W to SW flow (15%, not presented) was third, followed by Regime 8 with N to NW flow (13%) and Regime 1 (11%) with light and variable or light SE flow.
The monthly composites included the days from the various regime days as well as those with a completely disturbed or completely suppressed sea-breeze circulation. Nonetheless, the influence of the sea-breeze circulation can readily be seen in the diurnal progression of cloud frequency over a month. The variations seen in monthly cloud frequency composites for June, July, and August 1996–99 highlight periods of high and low cloud frequency and offer a different perspective on year-to-year and month-to-month variability.
The regime cloud frequency results are actively being used during the summer season in aviation and public forecasting to supplement available information.
Abstract
GOES-8 visible and infrared cloud frequency composites have been created from imagery collected during June, July, and August for the years 1996–99 over northern Florida. These cloud frequency composites are unique because they offer high-resolution coverage over a small area and have been tailored to address forecast needs. Both monthly and regime cloud frequency composites are presented. Nine regimes were designated to reflect the strength and development of the sea-breeze front under various synoptic winds and the resulting effect on convective development. The regimes were designated by mean boundary layer wind speed and direction over the region of interest. Results from four of the regimes are presented.
A total of 222 days (60% of all possible days) were designated for the various wind regimes. Regime 4 (W to SW flow) occurred most frequently (24%) and had the most widespread distribution of higher cloud frequency, occurring both near the coast and inland. Regime 2, with contrasting E to NE flow, was the next most frequently occurring regime (17%) and had lower cloud frequencies, particularly inland in Alabama and Georgia. Regime 5, with strong W to SW flow (15%, not presented) was third, followed by Regime 8 with N to NW flow (13%) and Regime 1 (11%) with light and variable or light SE flow.
The monthly composites included the days from the various regime days as well as those with a completely disturbed or completely suppressed sea-breeze circulation. Nonetheless, the influence of the sea-breeze circulation can readily be seen in the diurnal progression of cloud frequency over a month. The variations seen in monthly cloud frequency composites for June, July, and August 1996–99 highlight periods of high and low cloud frequency and offer a different perspective on year-to-year and month-to-month variability.
The regime cloud frequency results are actively being used during the summer season in aviation and public forecasting to supplement available information.
Abstract
Peak eustatic sea level (ESL), or minimum ice volume, during the protracted marine isotope stage 11 (MIS11) interglacial at ~420 ka remains a matter of contention. A recent study of high-stand markers of MIS11 age from the tectonically stable southern coast of South Africa estimated a peak ESL of 13 m. The present study refines this estimate by taking into account both the uncertainty in the correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the geographic variability of sea level change following polar ice sheet collapse. In regard to the latter, the authors demonstrate, using gravitationally self-consistent numerical predictions of postglacial sea level change, that rapid melting from any of the three major polar ice sheets (West Antarctic, Greenland, or East Antarctic) will lead to a local sea level rise in southern South Africa that is 15%–20% higher than the eustatic sea level rise associated with the ice sheet collapse. Taking this amplification and a range of possible GIA corrections into account and assuming that the tectonic correction applied in the earlier study is correct, the authors revise downward the estimate of peak ESL during MIS11 to 8–11.5 m.
Abstract
Peak eustatic sea level (ESL), or minimum ice volume, during the protracted marine isotope stage 11 (MIS11) interglacial at ~420 ka remains a matter of contention. A recent study of high-stand markers of MIS11 age from the tectonically stable southern coast of South Africa estimated a peak ESL of 13 m. The present study refines this estimate by taking into account both the uncertainty in the correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the geographic variability of sea level change following polar ice sheet collapse. In regard to the latter, the authors demonstrate, using gravitationally self-consistent numerical predictions of postglacial sea level change, that rapid melting from any of the three major polar ice sheets (West Antarctic, Greenland, or East Antarctic) will lead to a local sea level rise in southern South Africa that is 15%–20% higher than the eustatic sea level rise associated with the ice sheet collapse. Taking this amplification and a range of possible GIA corrections into account and assuming that the tectonic correction applied in the earlier study is correct, the authors revise downward the estimate of peak ESL during MIS11 to 8–11.5 m.
Abstract
The years since 2000 have been a golden age in in situ ocean observing with the proliferation and organization of autonomous platforms such as surface drogued buoys and subsurface Argo profiling floats augmenting ship-based observations. Global time series of mean sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are routinely calculated based on data from these platforms, enhancing our understanding of the ocean’s role in Earth’s climate system. Individual measurements of meteorological, sea surface, and subsurface variables directly improve our understanding of the Earth system, weather forecasting, and climate projections. They also provide the data necessary for validating and calibrating satellite observations. Maintaining this ocean observing system has been a technological, logistical, and funding challenge. The global COVID-19 pandemic, which took hold in 2020, added strain to the maintenance of the observing system. A survey of the contributing components of the observing system illustrates the impacts of the pandemic from January 2020 through December 2021. The pandemic did not reduce the short-term geographic coverage (days to months) capabilities mainly due to the continuation of autonomous platform observations. In contrast, the pandemic caused critical loss to longer-term (years to decades) observations, greatly impairing the monitoring of such crucial variables as ocean carbon and the state of the deep ocean. So, while the observing system has held under the stress of the pandemic, work must be done to restore the interrupted replenishment of the autonomous components and plan for more resilient methods to support components of the system that rely on cruise-based measurements.
Abstract
The years since 2000 have been a golden age in in situ ocean observing with the proliferation and organization of autonomous platforms such as surface drogued buoys and subsurface Argo profiling floats augmenting ship-based observations. Global time series of mean sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are routinely calculated based on data from these platforms, enhancing our understanding of the ocean’s role in Earth’s climate system. Individual measurements of meteorological, sea surface, and subsurface variables directly improve our understanding of the Earth system, weather forecasting, and climate projections. They also provide the data necessary for validating and calibrating satellite observations. Maintaining this ocean observing system has been a technological, logistical, and funding challenge. The global COVID-19 pandemic, which took hold in 2020, added strain to the maintenance of the observing system. A survey of the contributing components of the observing system illustrates the impacts of the pandemic from January 2020 through December 2021. The pandemic did not reduce the short-term geographic coverage (days to months) capabilities mainly due to the continuation of autonomous platform observations. In contrast, the pandemic caused critical loss to longer-term (years to decades) observations, greatly impairing the monitoring of such crucial variables as ocean carbon and the state of the deep ocean. So, while the observing system has held under the stress of the pandemic, work must be done to restore the interrupted replenishment of the autonomous components and plan for more resilient methods to support components of the system that rely on cruise-based measurements.
