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James P. Jenrette

Practical procedures for forecasting areas of overcast skies and precipitation are presented. The forecast thickness field is relabeled as a forecast maximum precipitable water field. A forecast actual precepitable water field is then graphically subtracted from this field to derive a forecast saturation chart. The forecast saturation chart is then adjusted with the forecast vertical-motion field. Isopleths of critical values on the adjusted saturation chart outline forecast areas of overcast skies and areas of probable precipitation.

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James P. Jenrette

An objective method is developed for forecasting the occurrence and intensity of showers. A composite moisture-stability parameter is designed which approximates the current structure of the atmosphere. This parameter is then combined with a vorticity-advection parameter which dictates the changes of the current structure. The system is designed for the summer season and is tested for Chanute Air Force Base, Illinois with a resultant skill score and per cent correct of 0.74 and 90 respectively.

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James P. Jenrette

An objective method of forecasting Gulf stratus clouds at Bryan Air Base, Texas in the summer season is developed using the scatter-diagram technique. The parameters used are (1) resultant wind direction, (2) resultant pressure-gradient magnitude, (3) Houston temperature-dew-point spread, (4) Bryan dew point, and (5) Bryan temperature-dew-point spread. Based on one year of independent data and four years of dependent data, the skill scores are 0.55 and 0.70 respectively.

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