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Richard Seager, Jennifer Nakamura, and Mingfang Ting

Abstract

The predictability on the seasonal time scale of meteorological drought onsets and terminations over the southern Great Plains is examined within the North American Multimodel Ensemble. The drought onsets and terminations were those identified based on soil moisture transitions in land data assimilation systems and shown to be driven by precipitation anomalies. Sea surface temperature (SST) forcing explains about a quarter of variance of seasonal mean precipitation in the region. However, at lead times of a season, forecast SSTs only explain about 10% of seasonal mean precipitation variance. For the three identified drought onsets, fall 2010 is confidently predicted and spring 2012 is predicted with some skill, and fall 2005 was not predicted at all. None of the drought terminations were predicted on the seasonal time scale. Predictability of drought onset arises from La Niña–like conditions, but there is no indication that El Niño conditions lead to drought terminations in the southern Great Plains. Spring 2012 and fall 2000 are further examined. The limited predictability of onset in spring 2012 arises from cool tropical Pacific SSTs, but internal atmospheric variability played a very important role. Drought termination in fall 2000 was predicted at the 1-month time scale but not at the seasonal time scale, likely because of failure to predict warm SST anomalies directly east of subtropical Asia. The work suggests that improved SST prediction offers some potential for improved prediction of both drought onsets and terminations in the southern Great Plains, but that many onsets and terminations will not be predictable even a season in advance.

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Richard Seager, Jennifer Nakamura, and Mingfang Ting

Abstract

Mechanisms of drought onset and termination are examined across North America with a focus on the southern Plains using data from land surface models and regional and global reanalyses for 1979–2017. Continental-scale analysis of covarying patterns reveals a tight coupling between soil moisture change over time and intervening precipitation anomalies. The southern Great Plains are a geographic center of patterns of hydrologic change. Drying is induced by atmospheric wave trains that span the Pacific and North America and place northerly flow anomalies above the southern Plains. In the southern Plains winter is least likely, and fall most likely, for drought onset and spring is least likely, and fall or summer most likely, for drought termination. Southern Plains soil moisture itself, which integrates precipitation over time, has a clear relationship to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with cold conditions favoring dry soils. Soil moisture change, however, though clearly driven by precipitation, has a weaker relation to SSTs and a strong relation to internal atmospheric variability. Little evidence is found of connection of drought onset and termination to driving by temperature anomalies. An analysis of particular drought onsets and terminations on the seasonal time scale reveals commonalities in terms of circulation and moisture transport anomalies over the southern Plains but a variety of ways in which these are connected into the large-scale atmosphere and ocean state. Some onsets are likely to be quite predictable due to forcing by cold tropical Pacific SSTs (e.g., fall 2010). Other onsets and all terminations are likely not predictable in terms of ocean conditions.

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Richard Seager, Alexandrina Tzanova, and Jennifer Nakamura

Abstract

An assessment of the nature and causes of drought in the southeastern United States is conducted as well as an assessment of model projections of anthropogenically forced hydroclimate change in this region. The study uses observations of precipitation, model simulations forced by historical SSTs from 1856 to 2007, tree-ring records of moisture availability over the last millennium, and climate change projections conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From the perspective of the historical record, the recent drought that began in winter 2005/06 was a typical event in terms of amplitude and duration. Observations and model simulations are used to show that dry winter half-years in the Southeast are weakly associated with La Niñas in the tropical Pacific but that this link varies over time and was possibly of opposite sign from about 1922 to 1950. Summer-season precipitation variability in the Southeast appears governed by purely internal atmospheric variability. As such, model simulations forced by historical SSTs have very limited skill in reproducing the instrumental record of Southeast precipitation variability and actual predictive skill is also presumably low. Tree-ring records show that the twentieth century has been moist from the perspective of the last millennium and free of long and severe droughts that were abundant in previous centuries. The tree-ring records show a 21-yr-long uninterrupted drought in the mid-sixteenth century, a long period of dry conditions in the early to mid-nineteenth century, and that the Southeast was also affected by some of the medieval megadroughts centered in western North America. Climate model projections predict that in the near term, future precipitation in the Southeast will increase but that evaporation will also increase. The median of the projections predicts a modest reduction in the atmospheric supply of water vapor to the region; however, the multimodel ensemble exhibits considerable variation, with a quarter to a third of the models projecting an increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The recent drought, forced by reduced precipitation and with reduced evaporation, has no signature of model-projected anthropogenic climate change.

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Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Naomi Naik, and Jennifer Nakamura

Abstract

The dynamical mechanisms associated with the impact of year-to-year variability in tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on North American precipitation, during the cold and warm halves of the hydrological year (October–September) are examined. Observations indicate that during both seasons warmer-than-normal TNA SSTs are associated with a reduction of precipitation over North America, mainly west of ∼90°W, and that the effect can be up to 30% of the year-to-year seasonal precipitation RMS variability. This finding confirms earlier studies with observations and models. During the cold season (October–March) the North American precipitation variability associated with TNA fluctuations is considerably weaker than its association with ENSO. During the warm season (April–September), however, the Atlantic influence, per one standard deviation of SST anomalies, is larger than that of ENSO.

The observed association between TNA SST anomalies and global and North American precipitation and sea level pressure variability is compared with that found in the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST variability, both globally and in the tropical Atlantic alone. The similarity between model output and observations suggests that TNA SST variability is causal. The mechanisms of the “upstream” influence of the Atlantic on North American precipitation are seasonally dependent. In the warm season, warmer-than-normal TNA SSTs induce a local increase in atmospheric convection. This leads to a weakening of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and a reduction in precipitation over the United States and northern Mexico, associated with the anomalous southward flow there. In the cold season, a response similar to the warm season over the subtropical Atlantic is identified, but there is also a concomitant suppression of convection over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a weakening of the Aleutian low and subsidence over western North America, similar to the impact of La Niña although weaker in amplitude. The impact of TNA SST on tropical convection and the extratropical circulation is examined by a set of idealized experiments with a linear general circulation model forced with the tropical heating field derived from the full AGCM.

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Richard Seager, Naomi Henderson, Mark Cane, Honghai Zhang, and Jennifer Nakamura

Abstract

Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere–ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics.

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Richard Seager, Neil Pederson, Yochanan Kushnir, Jennifer Nakamura, and Stephanie Jurburg

Abstract

The precipitation history over the last century in the Catskill Mountains region that supplies water to New York City is studied. A severe drought occurred in the early to mid-1960s followed by a wet period that continues. Interannual variability of precipitation in the region is related to patterns of atmospheric circulation variability in the midlatitude east Pacific–North America–west Atlantic sector with no link to the tropics. Associated SST variations in the Atlantic are consistent with being forced by the anomalous atmospheric flow rather than being causal. In winter and spring the 1960s drought was associated with a low pressure anomaly over the midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean and northerly subsiding flow over the greater Catskills region that would likely suppress precipitation. The cold SSTs offshore during the drought are consistent with atmospheric forcing of the ocean. The subsequent wet period was associated with high pressure anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean and ascending southerly flow over eastern North America favoring increased precipitation and a strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere storm track. Neither the drought nor the subsequent pluvial are simulated in sea surface temperature–forced atmosphere GCMs. The long-term wetting is also not simulated as a response to changes in radiative forcing by coupled models. It is concluded that past precipitation variability in the region, including the drought and pluvial, were most likely caused by internal atmospheric variability. Such events are unpredictable and a drought like the 1960s one could return while the long-term wetting trend need not continue—conclusions that have implications for management of New York City’s water resources.

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Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall, Yochanan Kushnir, and Suzana J. Camargo

Abstract

A new method for classifying tropical cyclones or similar features is introduced. The cyclone track is considered as an open spatial curve, with the wind speed or power information along the curve considered to be a mass attribute. The first and second moments of the resulting object are computed and then used to classify the historical tracks using standard clustering algorithms. Mass moments allow the whole track shape, length, and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin are clustered with K-means by mass moments, producing an optimum of six clusters with differing genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonal patterns, and trends. Even variables that are not directly clustered show distinct separation between clusters. A trend analysis confirms recent conclusions of increasing tropical cyclones in the basin over the past two decades. However, the trends vary across clusters.

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Richard Seager, Naomi Henderson, Mark Cane, Honghai Zhang, and Jennifer Nakamura

Abstract

Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere-ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics.

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Richard Seager, Naomi Henderson, Mark A. Cane, Haibo Liu, and Jennifer Nakamura

Abstract

The recent California drought was associated with a persistent ridge at the west coast of North America that has been associated with, in part, forcing from warm SST anomalies in the tropical west Pacific. Here it is considered whether there is a role for human-induced climate change in favoring such a west coast ridge. The models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project do not support such a case either in terms of a shift in the mean circulation or in variance that would favor increased intensity or frequency of ridges. The models also do not support shifts toward a drier mean climate or more frequent or intense dry winters or to tropical SST states that would favor west coast ridges. However, reanalyses do show that over the last century there has been a trend toward circulation anomalies over the Pacific–North American domain akin to those during the height of the California drought. The trend has been associated with a trend toward preferential warming of the Indo–west Pacific, an arrangement of tropical oceans and Pacific–North American circulation similar to that during winter 2013/14, the driest winter of the California drought. These height trends, however, are not reproduced in SST-forced atmosphere model ensembles. In contrast, idealized atmosphere modeling suggests that increased tropical Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradients are optimal for forcing height trends that favor a west coast ridge. These results allow a tenuous case for human-driven climate change driving increased gradients and favoring the west coast ridge, but observational data are not sufficiently accurate to confirm or reject this case.

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Richard Seager, Martin Hoerling, Siegfried Schubert, Hailan Wang, Bradfield Lyon, Arun Kumar, Jennifer Nakamura, and Naomi Henderson

Abstract

The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west–cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

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