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- Author or Editor: John R. Hope x
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Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
A general overview of the 1974 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is presented together with detailed accounts of individual storms.
Abstract
A general overview of the 1974 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is presented together with detailed accounts of individual storms.
Abstract
A general overview of the 1971 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is presented together with detailed accounts of all named tropical cyclones.
Abstract
A general overview of the 1971 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is presented together with detailed accounts of all named tropical cyclones.
Abstract
Statistical tropical cyclone prediction systems typically fall into one of three categories: 1) those using meteorological predictors derived from observed synoptic data; 2) those using purely empirical predictors such as climatology, present motion, past motion, analogs, etc.; and 3) those using combinations of both synoptic and empirical predictors. The variance-reducing potential of each of these prediction systems on given acts of dependent data is examined in detail. In general, it is found that empirical prediction systems are always superior in the shorter range forecast periods and even for extended forecast periods before storm recurvature. During and after storm recurvature, however, the synoptic-type predictors provide a better means of reducing the variance of tropical cyclone motion. It is shown that statistical tropical cyclone forecasting systems should make judicious use of both synoptic and empirical predictors.
Abstract
Statistical tropical cyclone prediction systems typically fall into one of three categories: 1) those using meteorological predictors derived from observed synoptic data; 2) those using purely empirical predictors such as climatology, present motion, past motion, analogs, etc.; and 3) those using combinations of both synoptic and empirical predictors. The variance-reducing potential of each of these prediction systems on given acts of dependent data is examined in detail. In general, it is found that empirical prediction systems are always superior in the shorter range forecast periods and even for extended forecast periods before storm recurvature. During and after storm recurvature, however, the synoptic-type predictors provide a better means of reducing the variance of tropical cyclone motion. It is shown that statistical tropical cyclone forecasting systems should make judicious use of both synoptic and empirical predictors.
Abstract
The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique for selecting analogs for an existing tropical storm or hurricane is described. This fully computerized program examines tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes since 1886, and those that have designated characteristics similar to an existing storm are selected and identified. Positions of storms selected as analogs are determined at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hr after the initial time. Probability ellipses are computed from the resulting arrays and plotted on an x, y (CALCOMP) offline plotter. The program also has the option of computing the probability that the storm center will be located within a fixed distance of a given point at a specific time. Operational use of HURRAN during the 1969 hurricane season, including both its utility and limitations, is described.
Abstract
The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique for selecting analogs for an existing tropical storm or hurricane is described. This fully computerized program examines tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes since 1886, and those that have designated characteristics similar to an existing storm are selected and identified. Positions of storms selected as analogs are determined at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hr after the initial time. Probability ellipses are computed from the resulting arrays and plotted on an x, y (CALCOMP) offline plotter. The program also has the option of computing the probability that the storm center will be located within a fixed distance of a given point at a specific time. Operational use of HURRAN during the 1969 hurricane season, including both its utility and limitations, is described.
Abstract
The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique, a fully computerized objective forecast aid making use of past tracks in forecasting hurricane motion, was developed prior to the 1969 hurricane season. Encouraging operational results during the 1969 and 1970 hurricane seasons suggested further evaluation of the technique. To this end, HURRAN computations were made for approximately 1,000 forecast situations. Results are stratified according to initial direction and speed of movement of the sample storms and the number of analogs selected. The utility of the technique is discussed, and the importance of position accuracy at forecast time is demonstrated. Initial indications of the value of the technique are substantiated.
Abstract
The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique, a fully computerized objective forecast aid making use of past tracks in forecasting hurricane motion, was developed prior to the 1969 hurricane season. Encouraging operational results during the 1969 and 1970 hurricane seasons suggested further evaluation of the technique. To this end, HURRAN computations were made for approximately 1,000 forecast situations. Results are stratified according to initial direction and speed of movement of the sample storms and the number of analogs selected. The utility of the technique is discussed, and the importance of position accuracy at forecast time is demonstrated. Initial indications of the value of the technique are substantiated.
