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Bryan C. Weare and John S. Nasstrom

Abstract

An extended empirical orthogonal function analysis technique is described which expands a data set in terms of functions which are the “best” representation of that data set for a sequence of time points. The method takes advantage of the fact that geophysical fields are often significantly correlated in both space and time. Two examples of applications of this technique are given which suggest it may be a highly useful tool for diagnosing the modes of variation of dominant sequences of events. In the first, an analysis of 300 mb relative vorticity, fairly regular advection of the major features of the spatial patterns is evident. Westward speeds of between 0.3 and 0.4 m s−1 are inferred. The second example illustrates extended functions of tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. The dominant function, which is associated with El Niño, shows a high degree of persistence over a six-month sequence. The second most important function suggests opposing variations in the influences of the North and South Pacific Equatorial Currents.

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Thomas J. Sullivan, James S. Ellis, Connee S. Foster, Kevin T. Foster, Ronald L. Baskett, John S. Nasstrom, and Walter W. Schalk III

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a centralized federal project for assessing atmospheric releases of hazardous materials in real time. Since ARAC began making assessments in 1974, the project has responded to over 60 domestic and international incidents. ARAC can model radiological accidents in the United States within 30 to 90 min, using its operationally robust, three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data acquisition systems, and experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for providing dose-assessment calculations after nuclear accidents, it has proven to be an extremely adaptable system, capable of being modified to respond also to nonradiological hazardous releases. In 1991, ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and an herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. Modeling the atmospheric effects of these events added significantly to the range of problems that ARAC can address and demonstrated that the system can be adapted to assess and respond to concurrent, multiple, unrelated events at different locations.

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Hung-Neng S. Chin, Martin J. Leach, Gayle A. Sugiyama, John M. Leone Jr., Hoyt Walker, J. S. Nasstrom, and Michael J. Brown

Abstract

A modified urban canopy parameterization (UCP) is developed and evaluated in a three-dimensional mesoscale model to assess the urban impact on surface and lower-atmospheric properties. This parameterization accounts for the effects of building drag, turbulent production, radiation balance, anthropogenic heating, and building rooftop heating/cooling. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land-use data are also utilized to derive urban infrastructure and urban surface properties needed for driving the UCP. An intensive observational period with clear sky, strong ambient wind, and drainage flow, and the absence of a land–lake breeze over the Salt Lake Valley, occurring on 25–26 October 2000, is selected for this study.

A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to gain understanding of the urban impact in the mesoscale model. Results indicate that within the selected urban environment, urban surface characteristics and anthropogenic heating play little role in the formation of the modeled nocturnal urban boundary layer. The rooftop effect appears to be the main contributor to this urban boundary layer. Sensitivity experiments also show that for this weak urban heat island case, the model horizontal grid resolution is important in simulating the elevated inversion layer.

The root-mean-square errors of the predicted wind and temperature with respect to surface station measurements exhibit substantially larger discrepancies at the urban locations than their rural counterparts. However, the close agreement of modeled tracer concentration with observations fairly justifies the modeled urban impact on the wind-direction shift and wind-drag effects.

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