Search Results
You are looking at 1 - 10 of 32 items for
- Author or Editor: John W. Nielsen-Gammon x
- Refine by Access: All Content x
A 20-yr loop of the global tropopause, defined in terms of potential vorticity (PV), is constructed using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. This method of visualizing observed upper-tropospheric dynamics is useful for studying a wide range of phenomena. Examples are given of the structure of jet streams and planetary-scale tropopause folds, the propagation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave packet partway around a hemisphere, several subtropical wave breaking events, the similarities between exceptional cases of rapid cyclogenesis, favorable regions for cross-equatorial propagation of Rossby waves, the annual cycle of the tropical tropopause, the structure of the Tibetan anticyclone and equatorial easterly jet associated with the Asian monsoon, the meridional structure of the upper branch of the Hadley cell, the interaction of a hurricane and midlatitude trough to form the “Perfect Storm,” and the upper-tropospheric PV changes associated with El Niño and La Niña.
Plumes of anticyclonic potential vorticity are frequently seen to be pulled from the subtropical reservoir and roll up into large anticyclones. These previously undescribed plumes may be particularly relevant to jet streak dynamics and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
A 20-yr loop of the global tropopause, defined in terms of potential vorticity (PV), is constructed using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. This method of visualizing observed upper-tropospheric dynamics is useful for studying a wide range of phenomena. Examples are given of the structure of jet streams and planetary-scale tropopause folds, the propagation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave packet partway around a hemisphere, several subtropical wave breaking events, the similarities between exceptional cases of rapid cyclogenesis, favorable regions for cross-equatorial propagation of Rossby waves, the annual cycle of the tropical tropopause, the structure of the Tibetan anticyclone and equatorial easterly jet associated with the Asian monsoon, the meridional structure of the upper branch of the Hadley cell, the interaction of a hurricane and midlatitude trough to form the “Perfect Storm,” and the upper-tropospheric PV changes associated with El Niño and La Niña.
Plumes of anticyclonic potential vorticity are frequently seen to be pulled from the subtropical reservoir and roll up into large anticyclones. These previously undescribed plumes may be particularly relevant to jet streak dynamics and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
Abstract
Effective stratification can be interpreted as the resistance to upward motion of saturated air parcels experiencing condensation. Previously published expressions for effective stratification conflict with each other, and the most widely distributed expression contains an O(1) error. A derivation of effective stratification is presented that exposes its physical interpretation and that reveals the origin of the flaw in the incorrect derivation.
Abstract
Effective stratification can be interpreted as the resistance to upward motion of saturated air parcels experiencing condensation. Previously published expressions for effective stratification conflict with each other, and the most widely distributed expression contains an O(1) error. A derivation of effective stratification is presented that exposes its physical interpretation and that reveals the origin of the flaw in the incorrect derivation.
Abstract
Identifying dynamical and physical mechanisms controlling variability of convective precipitation is critical for predicting intraseasonal and longer-term changes in warm-season precipitation and convectively driven large-scale circulations. On a monthly basis, the relationship of convective instability with precipitation is examined to investigate the modulation of convective instability on precipitation using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for 1948–2003. Three convective parameters—convective inhibition (CIN), precipitable water (PW), and convective available potential energy (CAPE)—are examined. A lifted index and a difference between low-tropospheric temperature and surface dewpoint are used as proxies of CAPE and CIN, respectively.
A simple correlation analysis between the convective parameters and the reanalysis precipitation revealed that the most significant convective parameter in the variability of monthly mean precipitation varies by regions and seasons. With respect to region, CIN is tightly coupled with precipitation over summer continents in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia, while PW or CAPE is tightly coupled with precipitation over tropical oceans. With respect to seasons, the identity of the most significant convective parameter tends to be consistent across seasons over the oceans, while it varies by season in Africa and South America. Results from GHCN precipitation data are broadly consistent with reanalysis data where GHCN data exist, except in some tropical areas where correlations are much stronger (and sometimes signed differently) with reanalysis precipitation than with GHCN precipitation.
Abstract
Identifying dynamical and physical mechanisms controlling variability of convective precipitation is critical for predicting intraseasonal and longer-term changes in warm-season precipitation and convectively driven large-scale circulations. On a monthly basis, the relationship of convective instability with precipitation is examined to investigate the modulation of convective instability on precipitation using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for 1948–2003. Three convective parameters—convective inhibition (CIN), precipitable water (PW), and convective available potential energy (CAPE)—are examined. A lifted index and a difference between low-tropospheric temperature and surface dewpoint are used as proxies of CAPE and CIN, respectively.
A simple correlation analysis between the convective parameters and the reanalysis precipitation revealed that the most significant convective parameter in the variability of monthly mean precipitation varies by regions and seasons. With respect to region, CIN is tightly coupled with precipitation over summer continents in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia, while PW or CAPE is tightly coupled with precipitation over tropical oceans. With respect to seasons, the identity of the most significant convective parameter tends to be consistent across seasons over the oceans, while it varies by season in Africa and South America. Results from GHCN precipitation data are broadly consistent with reanalysis data where GHCN data exist, except in some tropical areas where correlations are much stronger (and sometimes signed differently) with reanalysis precipitation than with GHCN precipitation.
Abstract
This research is designed to investigate how convective instability influences monthly mean precipitation in Texas in the summertime and to examine the modulation of convective instability and precipitation by local and regional forcings. Since drought results from the accumulated effects of deficient precipitation over time, this study is expected to shed light on the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the initiation and maintenance of serious droughts as well. The focus in Part I of this two-part study is on identification of the controlling convective parameters and, in turn, the surface-based processes that cause variations in these parameters. NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data, correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and back-trajectory analysis are used to reveal the underlying dynamics of their linkage and causality.
Monthly mean precipitation is modified mainly by convective inhibition (CIN) rather than by convective available potential energy (CAPE) or by precipitable water. Excessive CIN is caused by surface dryness and warming at 700 hPa, leading to precipitation deficits on a monthly time scale. While the dewpoint temperature and thermodynamics at the surface are greatly affected by the soil moisture, the temperature at 700 hPa was found to be statistically independent of the surface dewpoint temperature since the 700-hPa temperature represents free-atmospheric processes. (These free-atmospheric processes are the focus of the companion paper.) Finally, the strong correlations among precipitation, soil moisture, and CIN, as well as their underlying physical processes, suggest that the tight linkage between precipitation and soil moisture is not only due to the impacts of precipitation on soil moisture but also to the feedbacks of soil moisture on precipitation by controlling CIN.
Abstract
This research is designed to investigate how convective instability influences monthly mean precipitation in Texas in the summertime and to examine the modulation of convective instability and precipitation by local and regional forcings. Since drought results from the accumulated effects of deficient precipitation over time, this study is expected to shed light on the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the initiation and maintenance of serious droughts as well. The focus in Part I of this two-part study is on identification of the controlling convective parameters and, in turn, the surface-based processes that cause variations in these parameters. NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data, correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and back-trajectory analysis are used to reveal the underlying dynamics of their linkage and causality.
Monthly mean precipitation is modified mainly by convective inhibition (CIN) rather than by convective available potential energy (CAPE) or by precipitable water. Excessive CIN is caused by surface dryness and warming at 700 hPa, leading to precipitation deficits on a monthly time scale. While the dewpoint temperature and thermodynamics at the surface are greatly affected by the soil moisture, the temperature at 700 hPa was found to be statistically independent of the surface dewpoint temperature since the 700-hPa temperature represents free-atmospheric processes. (These free-atmospheric processes are the focus of the companion paper.) Finally, the strong correlations among precipitation, soil moisture, and CIN, as well as their underlying physical processes, suggest that the tight linkage between precipitation and soil moisture is not only due to the impacts of precipitation on soil moisture but also to the feedbacks of soil moisture on precipitation by controlling CIN.
Abstract
This study is concerned with the modulation by convective instability of summertime precipitation in Texas as a mechanism for maintaining or enhancing drought. The important role of convective inhibition (CIN), its dependence on the temperature at 700 hPa and the surface dewpoint, and the mechanism by which soil moisture modulates precipitation through CIN were described in Part I of this two-part series study. This study, Part II, examines the dynamic and physical processes controlling the temperature at 700 hPa and elucidates the large-scale influences on convective instability and precipitation integrating the principal processes found in both Parts I and II.
Back-trajectory analysis indicates that a significant contributor to warming at 700 hPa is the inversion caused by warm air transport from the Rocky Mountains and the Mexican Plateau where the surface potential temperature is greater than 307.5 K, rather than by subsidence. It was found that downward motion and warm air transport are enhanced in Texas when an upper-level anticyclonic circulation develops in the southern United States.
Upper-level anticyclonic circulations in the southern United States, one of the distinctive features of central U.S. droughts, strongly affect Texas summertime precipitation by modulating the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and thus convective instability. Stationary anticyclonic anomalies increase CIN not only by enhancing warm air transport from the high terrain but also by suppressing the occurrence of traveling disturbances. The resulting reduced precipitation and dry soil significantly modulate surface conditions, which elevates CIN and decreases precipitation. The aforementioned chain reaction of upper-level anticyclone influences that is expected to play an important role in initiating and maintaining Texas summer droughts can be understood within the context of CIN.
Abstract
This study is concerned with the modulation by convective instability of summertime precipitation in Texas as a mechanism for maintaining or enhancing drought. The important role of convective inhibition (CIN), its dependence on the temperature at 700 hPa and the surface dewpoint, and the mechanism by which soil moisture modulates precipitation through CIN were described in Part I of this two-part series study. This study, Part II, examines the dynamic and physical processes controlling the temperature at 700 hPa and elucidates the large-scale influences on convective instability and precipitation integrating the principal processes found in both Parts I and II.
Back-trajectory analysis indicates that a significant contributor to warming at 700 hPa is the inversion caused by warm air transport from the Rocky Mountains and the Mexican Plateau where the surface potential temperature is greater than 307.5 K, rather than by subsidence. It was found that downward motion and warm air transport are enhanced in Texas when an upper-level anticyclonic circulation develops in the southern United States.
Upper-level anticyclonic circulations in the southern United States, one of the distinctive features of central U.S. droughts, strongly affect Texas summertime precipitation by modulating the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and thus convective instability. Stationary anticyclonic anomalies increase CIN not only by enhancing warm air transport from the high terrain but also by suppressing the occurrence of traveling disturbances. The resulting reduced precipitation and dry soil significantly modulate surface conditions, which elevates CIN and decreases precipitation. The aforementioned chain reaction of upper-level anticyclone influences that is expected to play an important role in initiating and maintaining Texas summer droughts can be understood within the context of CIN.
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
The evolution of the southerly low-level jet (LLJ) during a return flow event is studied using output from the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (Version 4). Three geographically different southerly LLJs develop in the simulation: one over the southern Plains of the United States, a second southwest of Brownsville, Texas, and a third over the western Gulf of Mexico. The LLJ over the Plains is found to form first as an inertial oscillation and later as a response to lee troughing and an elevated mixed layer that develops over the region. Over Mexico, the temperature structure over the Altiplanicie Mexicana (Mexican High Plain) is responsible for a locally intense low-level pressure gradient east of the High Plain which remains nearly stationary over two diurnal cycles. The LLJ over the western Gulf of Mexico results largely from topographic blocking of the low-level southerly flow by the eastern end of the Neovolcanic Cordillera northwest of Veracruz, Mexico.
The evolution of the lower troposphere over the southern Plains resembles the Carlson and Ludlam conceptual model for a severe storm environment, but the structure of the return flow is complex. When midlevel westerlies are weak, mesoscale and boundary layer processes govern the development of LLJs. As the west and southwesterly winds increase with an approaching upper-level disturbance, synoptic influences overwhelm the mesoscale processes leading to a single, larger-scale LLJ.
Abstract
The evolution of the southerly low-level jet (LLJ) during a return flow event is studied using output from the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (Version 4). Three geographically different southerly LLJs develop in the simulation: one over the southern Plains of the United States, a second southwest of Brownsville, Texas, and a third over the western Gulf of Mexico. The LLJ over the Plains is found to form first as an inertial oscillation and later as a response to lee troughing and an elevated mixed layer that develops over the region. Over Mexico, the temperature structure over the Altiplanicie Mexicana (Mexican High Plain) is responsible for a locally intense low-level pressure gradient east of the High Plain which remains nearly stationary over two diurnal cycles. The LLJ over the western Gulf of Mexico results largely from topographic blocking of the low-level southerly flow by the eastern end of the Neovolcanic Cordillera northwest of Veracruz, Mexico.
The evolution of the lower troposphere over the southern Plains resembles the Carlson and Ludlam conceptual model for a severe storm environment, but the structure of the return flow is complex. When midlevel westerlies are weak, mesoscale and boundary layer processes govern the development of LLJs. As the west and southwesterly winds increase with an approaching upper-level disturbance, synoptic influences overwhelm the mesoscale processes leading to a single, larger-scale LLJ.
Abstract
The use of potential vorticity (PV) allows the efficient description of the dynamics of nearly balanced atmospheric flow phenomena, but the distribution of PV must be simply represented for ease in interpretation. Representations of PV on isentropic or isobaric surfaces can be cumbersome, as analyses of several surfaces spanning the troposphere must be constructed to fully apprehend the complete PV distribution.
Following a brief review of the relationship between PV and nearly balanced flows, it is demonstrated that the tropospheric PV has a simple distribution, and as a consequence, an analysis of potential temperature along the dynamic tropopause (here defined as a surface of constant PV) allows for a simple representation of the upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric PV. The construction and interpretation of these tropopause maps, which may be termed “isertelic” analyses of potential temperature, are described. In addition, techniques to construct dynamical representations of the lower-tropospheric PV and near-surface potential temperature, which complement these isertelic analyses, are also suggested. Case studies are presented to illustrate the utility of these techniques in diagnosing phenomena such as cyclogenesis, tropopause folds, the formation of an upper trough, and the effects of latent heat release on the upper and lower troposphere.
Abstract
The use of potential vorticity (PV) allows the efficient description of the dynamics of nearly balanced atmospheric flow phenomena, but the distribution of PV must be simply represented for ease in interpretation. Representations of PV on isentropic or isobaric surfaces can be cumbersome, as analyses of several surfaces spanning the troposphere must be constructed to fully apprehend the complete PV distribution.
Following a brief review of the relationship between PV and nearly balanced flows, it is demonstrated that the tropospheric PV has a simple distribution, and as a consequence, an analysis of potential temperature along the dynamic tropopause (here defined as a surface of constant PV) allows for a simple representation of the upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric PV. The construction and interpretation of these tropopause maps, which may be termed “isertelic” analyses of potential temperature, are described. In addition, techniques to construct dynamical representations of the lower-tropospheric PV and near-surface potential temperature, which complement these isertelic analyses, are also suggested. Case studies are presented to illustrate the utility of these techniques in diagnosing phenomena such as cyclogenesis, tropopause folds, the formation of an upper trough, and the effects of latent heat release on the upper and lower troposphere.
Abstract
Nonlinear balance potential vorticity (PV) inversion is used to diagnose the sensitivity of the severe convective parameter space to the amplitude of a subsynoptic-scale PV anomaly on 13 March 1990, a day on which a significant tornado outbreak impacted the Great Plains. PV surgery is used to both amplify and remove the PV anomaly, and the contemporaneous impact on various convective parameters is subsequently quantified by using piecewise PV inversion to compute the changes in those parameters attributable to each PV alteration. It is found that amplifying the anomaly increases the CAPE by amounts typically ranging from 20% to 30% within the atmospheric columns experiencing the maximum PV increase. Ascent is increased slightly downshear of the PV anomaly, consistent with extant conceptual models governing synoptic-scale forcing for vertical motion. Amplifying the PV anomaly increases deep-layer shear over the southern half of the outbreak region and reduces storm-relative helicity over the northern half, primarily through changes in the estimated storm motion vector. Removing the anomaly produces complementary changes of the opposite sign. Thresholds of several commonly used convective parameters are chosen on the basis of prior empirical studies, and the horizontal displacement of these threshold contours produced by the PV alterations reveals that relatively modest subsynoptic-scale PV changes would not likely change the predominant convective mode during the Hesston outbreak.
Abstract
Nonlinear balance potential vorticity (PV) inversion is used to diagnose the sensitivity of the severe convective parameter space to the amplitude of a subsynoptic-scale PV anomaly on 13 March 1990, a day on which a significant tornado outbreak impacted the Great Plains. PV surgery is used to both amplify and remove the PV anomaly, and the contemporaneous impact on various convective parameters is subsequently quantified by using piecewise PV inversion to compute the changes in those parameters attributable to each PV alteration. It is found that amplifying the anomaly increases the CAPE by amounts typically ranging from 20% to 30% within the atmospheric columns experiencing the maximum PV increase. Ascent is increased slightly downshear of the PV anomaly, consistent with extant conceptual models governing synoptic-scale forcing for vertical motion. Amplifying the PV anomaly increases deep-layer shear over the southern half of the outbreak region and reduces storm-relative helicity over the northern half, primarily through changes in the estimated storm motion vector. Removing the anomaly produces complementary changes of the opposite sign. Thresholds of several commonly used convective parameters are chosen on the basis of prior empirical studies, and the horizontal displacement of these threshold contours produced by the PV alterations reveals that relatively modest subsynoptic-scale PV changes would not likely change the predominant convective mode during the Hesston outbreak.
Abstract
A potential vorticity (PV) diagnostic framework is used to explore the sensitivity of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado outbreak to the strength of a particular PV anomaly proximate to the geographical region experiencing the tornado outbreak. The results derived from the balanced PV diagnosis agree broadly with those obtained previously in a numerical simulation of the same event, while offering additional insight into the nature of the sensitivity. Similar to the findings of other cases, the balanced diagnosis demonstrates that intensifying (removing) the PV anomaly of interest increases (decreases) the balanced CAPE over the southwestern portion of the outbreak region, reduces (increases) the storm-relative helicity, and increases (reduces) ascent. The latter finding, coupled with the results of the modeling study, demonstrates that intensifying a PV anomaly proximate to an outbreak environment can increase the likelihood that more widespread and possibly less tornadic convection will ensue. The overall results of the balanced diagnosis complement those of other case studies, leading to the formulation of a conceptual model that broadly anticipates how the convective regime will respond to changes in intensity of upper-tropospheric weather features.
Abstract
A potential vorticity (PV) diagnostic framework is used to explore the sensitivity of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado outbreak to the strength of a particular PV anomaly proximate to the geographical region experiencing the tornado outbreak. The results derived from the balanced PV diagnosis agree broadly with those obtained previously in a numerical simulation of the same event, while offering additional insight into the nature of the sensitivity. Similar to the findings of other cases, the balanced diagnosis demonstrates that intensifying (removing) the PV anomaly of interest increases (decreases) the balanced CAPE over the southwestern portion of the outbreak region, reduces (increases) the storm-relative helicity, and increases (reduces) ascent. The latter finding, coupled with the results of the modeling study, demonstrates that intensifying a PV anomaly proximate to an outbreak environment can increase the likelihood that more widespread and possibly less tornadic convection will ensue. The overall results of the balanced diagnosis complement those of other case studies, leading to the formulation of a conceptual model that broadly anticipates how the convective regime will respond to changes in intensity of upper-tropospheric weather features.
