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- Author or Editor: Judah Cohen x
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Abstract
A statistical forecast model, referred to as the snow-cast (sCast) model, has been developed using observed October mean snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies to predict upcoming winter land surface temperatures for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. In operational forecasts since 1999, snow cover has been used for seven winters, and sea level pressure anomalies for three winters. Presented are skill scores for these seven real-time forecasts and also for 33 winter hindcasts (1972/73–2004/05). The model demonstrates positive skill over much of the eastern United States and northern Eurasia—regions that have eluded skillful predictions among the existing major seasonal forecast centers. Comparison with three leading dynamical forecast systems shows that the statistical model produces superior skill for the same regions. Despite the increasing complexity of the dynamical models, they continue to derive their forecast skill predominantly from tropical atmosphere–ocean coupling, in particular from ENSO. Therefore, in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, away from the influence of ENSO, the sCast model is expected to outperform the dynamical models into the foreseeable future.
Abstract
A statistical forecast model, referred to as the snow-cast (sCast) model, has been developed using observed October mean snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies to predict upcoming winter land surface temperatures for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. In operational forecasts since 1999, snow cover has been used for seven winters, and sea level pressure anomalies for three winters. Presented are skill scores for these seven real-time forecasts and also for 33 winter hindcasts (1972/73–2004/05). The model demonstrates positive skill over much of the eastern United States and northern Eurasia—regions that have eluded skillful predictions among the existing major seasonal forecast centers. Comparison with three leading dynamical forecast systems shows that the statistical model produces superior skill for the same regions. Despite the increasing complexity of the dynamical models, they continue to derive their forecast skill predominantly from tropical atmosphere–ocean coupling, in particular from ENSO. Therefore, in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, away from the influence of ENSO, the sCast model is expected to outperform the dynamical models into the foreseeable future.
Abstract
The use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) has grown popular as a tool to determine underlying variability from the rapidly increasing volume of climate data. It has been noted that the dominant or first EOF of geopotential heights, in each hemisphere at levels from the surface through the troposphere and into the midstratosphere, appears to be zonally symmetric. It has also been suggested that all of the first EOFs, throughout the atmospheric column are barotropically coupled and annular. Moreover, such modes of variability in both hemispheres are thought to be analogous to each other. To define annularity more objectively and to facilitate comparisons both temporally and spatially, a framework has been formulated within which modes of variability may be tested for their degree of zonal symmetry or annularity. Motivated by previous choices, pressure–height fields in each hemisphere are tested for annularity, one near the surface and the other in the midstratosphere. Periods chosen coincide with times when the troposphere and stratosphere are actively coupled. According to the test for annularity on the first mode of variability, these fields can be ranked in order of degree of annularity: the first EOF of Northern Hemisphere (NH) December–January–February (DJF) 50-hPa geopotential height is annular; the first EOF of Southern Hemisphere November 50-hPa geopotential height is weakly annular; the first EOF of Southern Hemisphere November 850-hPa geopotential height is weakly nonannular; and the first EOF of NH DJF sea level pressure is nonannular.
Abstract
The use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) has grown popular as a tool to determine underlying variability from the rapidly increasing volume of climate data. It has been noted that the dominant or first EOF of geopotential heights, in each hemisphere at levels from the surface through the troposphere and into the midstratosphere, appears to be zonally symmetric. It has also been suggested that all of the first EOFs, throughout the atmospheric column are barotropically coupled and annular. Moreover, such modes of variability in both hemispheres are thought to be analogous to each other. To define annularity more objectively and to facilitate comparisons both temporally and spatially, a framework has been formulated within which modes of variability may be tested for their degree of zonal symmetry or annularity. Motivated by previous choices, pressure–height fields in each hemisphere are tested for annularity, one near the surface and the other in the midstratosphere. Periods chosen coincide with times when the troposphere and stratosphere are actively coupled. According to the test for annularity on the first mode of variability, these fields can be ranked in order of degree of annularity: the first EOF of Northern Hemisphere (NH) December–January–February (DJF) 50-hPa geopotential height is annular; the first EOF of Southern Hemisphere November 50-hPa geopotential height is weakly annular; the first EOF of Southern Hemisphere November 850-hPa geopotential height is weakly nonannular; and the first EOF of NH DJF sea level pressure is nonannular.
Abstract
Many tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) events are preceded by stratospheric AO events and even earlier in time by anomalous upward energy flux associated with Rossby waves in the troposphere. This study identifies lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies that precede large AO events in both the troposphere and stratosphere and the anomalous upward energy flux. Compositing analysis of stratospheric warming events identifies regional tropospheric precursors, which precede stratospheric warmings. The tropospheric precursor is found to vary when compositing over polar vortex displacements and splits separately. Prior to vortex displacements the main anomaly sea level pressure center of the tropospheric precursor is located across northwest Eurasia and is associated with the Siberian high. Prior to vortex splits a similar anomaly center is identified in the tropospheric precursor but is weaker and appears to be more strongly related to a shift in the storm tracks. Differences in the sea level pressure anomalies in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific are also observed when comparing the precursors prior to vortex displacements and splits. Identification of a unique tropospheric precursor to stratospheric warming and subsequent tropospheric AO events can help to improve understanding troposphere–stratosphere coupling. Furthermore, the observational evidence presented here can be compared with model simulations of winter climate variability and lead to potential model improvements.
Abstract
Many tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) events are preceded by stratospheric AO events and even earlier in time by anomalous upward energy flux associated with Rossby waves in the troposphere. This study identifies lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies that precede large AO events in both the troposphere and stratosphere and the anomalous upward energy flux. Compositing analysis of stratospheric warming events identifies regional tropospheric precursors, which precede stratospheric warmings. The tropospheric precursor is found to vary when compositing over polar vortex displacements and splits separately. Prior to vortex displacements the main anomaly sea level pressure center of the tropospheric precursor is located across northwest Eurasia and is associated with the Siberian high. Prior to vortex splits a similar anomaly center is identified in the tropospheric precursor but is weaker and appears to be more strongly related to a shift in the storm tracks. Differences in the sea level pressure anomalies in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific are also observed when comparing the precursors prior to vortex displacements and splits. Identification of a unique tropospheric precursor to stratospheric warming and subsequent tropospheric AO events can help to improve understanding troposphere–stratosphere coupling. Furthermore, the observational evidence presented here can be compared with model simulations of winter climate variability and lead to potential model improvements.
Abstract
Large-scale snow cover anomalies are thought to cause significant changes in the diabatic heating of the earth's surface in such a way as to produce substantial local cooling in the surface temperatures. This theory was tested using the GISS 3-D GCM (General Circulation Model). The results of the GCM experiment showed that snow cover caused only a short term local decrease in the surface temperature. In the surface energy budget, reduction in absorbed shortwave radiation and the increased latent heat sink of melting snow contributed to lower temperatures. However, all the remaining heating terms contribute to increasing the net heating over a snow covered surface. The results emphasize the negative feedback which limits the impact of snow cover anomalies over longer time scales.
Abstract
Large-scale snow cover anomalies are thought to cause significant changes in the diabatic heating of the earth's surface in such a way as to produce substantial local cooling in the surface temperatures. This theory was tested using the GISS 3-D GCM (General Circulation Model). The results of the GCM experiment showed that snow cover caused only a short term local decrease in the surface temperature. In the surface energy budget, reduction in absorbed shortwave radiation and the increased latent heat sink of melting snow contributed to lower temperatures. However, all the remaining heating terms contribute to increasing the net heating over a snow covered surface. The results emphasize the negative feedback which limits the impact of snow cover anomalies over longer time scales.
Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly affect Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures with patterns reported similar to the global warming trend. The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s, and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO, NAO, and NH average surface temperature for December–February, 1950–2004, and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined. Also analyzed are factors previously identified as relating to the NAO, AO, and their positive trend: North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Indo–Pacific warm pool SSTs, stratospheric circulation, and Eurasian snow cover.
Recently, the NAO and AO indices have been decreasing; when these data are included, the overall trends for the past 30 years are weak to nonexistent and are strongly dependent on the choice of start and end date. In clear distinction, the wintertime hemispheric warming trend has been vigorous and consistent throughout the entire period. When considered for the whole hemisphere, the NAO/AO patterns can also be distinguished from the trend pattern. Thus the December–February warming trend may be distinguished from the AO and NAO in terms of the strength, consistency, and pattern of the trend. These results are insensitive to choice of index or dataset. While the NAO and AO may contribute to hemispheric and regional warming for multiyear periods, these differences suggest that the large-scale features of the global warming trend over the last 30 years are unrelated to the AO and NAO. The related factors may also be clearly distinguished, with warm pool SSTs linked to the warming trend, while the others are linked to the NAO and AO.
Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly affect Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures with patterns reported similar to the global warming trend. The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s, and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO, NAO, and NH average surface temperature for December–February, 1950–2004, and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined. Also analyzed are factors previously identified as relating to the NAO, AO, and their positive trend: North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Indo–Pacific warm pool SSTs, stratospheric circulation, and Eurasian snow cover.
Recently, the NAO and AO indices have been decreasing; when these data are included, the overall trends for the past 30 years are weak to nonexistent and are strongly dependent on the choice of start and end date. In clear distinction, the wintertime hemispheric warming trend has been vigorous and consistent throughout the entire period. When considered for the whole hemisphere, the NAO/AO patterns can also be distinguished from the trend pattern. Thus the December–February warming trend may be distinguished from the AO and NAO in terms of the strength, consistency, and pattern of the trend. These results are insensitive to choice of index or dataset. While the NAO and AO may contribute to hemispheric and regional warming for multiyear periods, these differences suggest that the large-scale features of the global warming trend over the last 30 years are unrelated to the AO and NAO. The related factors may also be clearly distinguished, with warm pool SSTs linked to the warming trend, while the others are linked to the NAO and AO.
Abstract
Recently it has been shown that the area extent of Eurasian snow cover during September–October–November (SON) and the principal component of the leading mode of extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variability in the following winter are statistically correlated. In this paper, physical linkages between SON Eurasian snow cover and the wintertime climate variability in the NH atmosphere are postulated. And in order to test the proposed hypotheses, comprehensive analyses of satellite-based observations for snow cover and reanalysis data for geopotential heights and sea level pressure are used.
The magnitude of the correlation between snow cover and climate variability is found to be inversely proportional to the height suggesting that snow cover may act as a lower boundary forcing to the tropospheric circulation. Conversely, however, an index constructed to capture the downward propagating circulation anomaly from the lower stratosphere to the middle troposphere is shown to be as highly correlated with snow cover variability as the Arctic oscillation derived from sea level pressure.
A mechanism involving the vertical propagation of Rossby waves is proposed to explain this apparent contradiction. Anomalous fall snow cover variability not only alters near-surface temperatures but also impacts upward propagating Rossby waves. Changes forced in the stratosphere by anomalous snow cover are not realized until later in the winter season when the troposphere and stratosphere are actively coupled.
Abstract
Recently it has been shown that the area extent of Eurasian snow cover during September–October–November (SON) and the principal component of the leading mode of extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variability in the following winter are statistically correlated. In this paper, physical linkages between SON Eurasian snow cover and the wintertime climate variability in the NH atmosphere are postulated. And in order to test the proposed hypotheses, comprehensive analyses of satellite-based observations for snow cover and reanalysis data for geopotential heights and sea level pressure are used.
The magnitude of the correlation between snow cover and climate variability is found to be inversely proportional to the height suggesting that snow cover may act as a lower boundary forcing to the tropospheric circulation. Conversely, however, an index constructed to capture the downward propagating circulation anomaly from the lower stratosphere to the middle troposphere is shown to be as highly correlated with snow cover variability as the Arctic oscillation derived from sea level pressure.
A mechanism involving the vertical propagation of Rossby waves is proposed to explain this apparent contradiction. Anomalous fall snow cover variability not only alters near-surface temperatures but also impacts upward propagating Rossby waves. Changes forced in the stratosphere by anomalous snow cover are not realized until later in the winter season when the troposphere and stratosphere are actively coupled.
Abstract
The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere, with vigorous warming in October–December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January–March. This observed asymmetry in the cold half of the boreal year is linked to a two-way stratosphere–troposphere interaction, which is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere during late winter and is related to variability in Eurasian land surface conditions during autumn. This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal time-scale winter forecasts; here, this coupling is shown to strongly modulate the warming trend, with implications for decadal-scale temperature projections.
Abstract
The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere, with vigorous warming in October–December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January–March. This observed asymmetry in the cold half of the boreal year is linked to a two-way stratosphere–troposphere interaction, which is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere during late winter and is related to variability in Eurasian land surface conditions during autumn. This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal time-scale winter forecasts; here, this coupling is shown to strongly modulate the warming trend, with implications for decadal-scale temperature projections.
Abstract
Numerous studies have hypothesized that surface boundary conditions or other external mechanisms drive the hemispheric mode of atmospheric variability known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), or its regional counterpart, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, no single external factor has emerged as the dominant forcing mechanism, which has led, in part, to the characterization of the AO–NAO as a fundamental internal mode of the atmospheric system. Nevertheless, surface forcings may play a considerable role in modulating, if not driving, the AO–NAO mode. In this study, a pair of large-ensemble atmospheric GCM experiments (with SST climatology), one with prescribed climatological snow mass and another with freely varying snow mass, is conducted to investigate the degree to which the AO–NAO is modulated by interannual variability of surface snow conditions. Statistical analysis of the results indicates that snow anomalies are not required to produce the AO–NAO mode of variability. Nevertheless, interannual variations in snow mass are found to exert a modulating influence on the AO–NAO mode. Snow variations excite the AO pattern over the North Atlantic sector, produce correlated hemispheric AO features throughout the troposphere and stratosphere, and generate autumn sea level pressure anomalies over Siberia that evolve into the winter AO–NAO. These numerical modeling results are consistent with previous observational analyses that statistically link the AO–NAO mode with the Siberian high and associated snow cover variations.
Abstract
Numerous studies have hypothesized that surface boundary conditions or other external mechanisms drive the hemispheric mode of atmospheric variability known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), or its regional counterpart, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, no single external factor has emerged as the dominant forcing mechanism, which has led, in part, to the characterization of the AO–NAO as a fundamental internal mode of the atmospheric system. Nevertheless, surface forcings may play a considerable role in modulating, if not driving, the AO–NAO mode. In this study, a pair of large-ensemble atmospheric GCM experiments (with SST climatology), one with prescribed climatological snow mass and another with freely varying snow mass, is conducted to investigate the degree to which the AO–NAO is modulated by interannual variability of surface snow conditions. Statistical analysis of the results indicates that snow anomalies are not required to produce the AO–NAO mode of variability. Nevertheless, interannual variations in snow mass are found to exert a modulating influence on the AO–NAO mode. Snow variations excite the AO pattern over the North Atlantic sector, produce correlated hemispheric AO features throughout the troposphere and stratosphere, and generate autumn sea level pressure anomalies over Siberia that evolve into the winter AO–NAO. These numerical modeling results are consistent with previous observational analyses that statistically link the AO–NAO mode with the Siberian high and associated snow cover variations.
Abstract
Wintertime Northern Hemisphere climate variability is investigated using large-ensemble (20) numerical GCM simulations. Control simulations with climatological surface (land and ocean) conditions indicate that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is an internal mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere, and that it can be triggered through a myriad of perturbations. In this study the role of autumn land surface snow conditions is investigated. Satellite observations of historical autumn–winter snow cover are applied over Siberia as model boundary conditions for two snow-forced experiments, one using the highest observed autumn snow cover extent over Siberia (1976) and another using the lowest extent (1988). The ensemble-mean difference between the two snow-forced experiments is computed to evaluate the climatic response to Siberian snow conditions. Experiment results suggest that Siberian snow conditions exert a modulating influence on the predominant wintertime Northern Hemisphere (AO) mode. Furthermore, an atmospheric teleconnection pathway is identified, involving well-known wave–mean flow interaction processes throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Anomalously high Siberian snow increases local upward stationary wave flux activity, weakens the stratospheric polar vortex, and causes upper-troposphere stationary waves to refract poleward. These related stationary wave and mean flow anomalies propagate down through the troposphere via a positive feedback, which results in a downward-propagating negative AO anomaly during the winter season from the stratosphere to the surface. This pathway provides a physical explanation for how regional land surface snow anomalies can influence winter climate on a hemispheric scale. The results of this study may potentially lead to improved predictions of the winter AO mode, based on Siberian snow conditions during the preceding autumn.
Abstract
Wintertime Northern Hemisphere climate variability is investigated using large-ensemble (20) numerical GCM simulations. Control simulations with climatological surface (land and ocean) conditions indicate that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is an internal mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere, and that it can be triggered through a myriad of perturbations. In this study the role of autumn land surface snow conditions is investigated. Satellite observations of historical autumn–winter snow cover are applied over Siberia as model boundary conditions for two snow-forced experiments, one using the highest observed autumn snow cover extent over Siberia (1976) and another using the lowest extent (1988). The ensemble-mean difference between the two snow-forced experiments is computed to evaluate the climatic response to Siberian snow conditions. Experiment results suggest that Siberian snow conditions exert a modulating influence on the predominant wintertime Northern Hemisphere (AO) mode. Furthermore, an atmospheric teleconnection pathway is identified, involving well-known wave–mean flow interaction processes throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Anomalously high Siberian snow increases local upward stationary wave flux activity, weakens the stratospheric polar vortex, and causes upper-troposphere stationary waves to refract poleward. These related stationary wave and mean flow anomalies propagate down through the troposphere via a positive feedback, which results in a downward-propagating negative AO anomaly during the winter season from the stratosphere to the surface. This pathway provides a physical explanation for how regional land surface snow anomalies can influence winter climate on a hemispheric scale. The results of this study may potentially lead to improved predictions of the winter AO mode, based on Siberian snow conditions during the preceding autumn.
