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- Author or Editor: K. Davidson x
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Abstract
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Automated equipment has been used to obtain hourly counts of cloud nuclei at Robertson, N.S.W., Australia (34°36′S, 50°36′E). The experiment is described and some results from the first year of continuous observations are given.
Abstract
Automated equipment has been used to obtain hourly counts of cloud nuclei at Robertson, N.S.W., Australia (34°36′S, 50°36′E). The experiment is described and some results from the first year of continuous observations are given.
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Abstract
Marine aerosol size distributions are fit to a gamma function using the technique of maximum likelihood. Aerosol measurements are separated into marine and continental components. The marine component is fit to the gamma function to provide a set of wind-speed-dependent coefficients. The results are in good agreement with earlier measurements.
Abstract
Marine aerosol size distributions are fit to a gamma function using the technique of maximum likelihood. Aerosol measurements are separated into marine and continental components. The marine component is fit to the gamma function to provide a set of wind-speed-dependent coefficients. The results are in good agreement with earlier measurements.
Abstract
Cloud nucleus concentration measurements made at hourly intervals between 1968 and 1973 at Robertson, N. S. W., show a very clear diurnal pattern with a maximum at approximately 1800 local time and a minimum at 0600 local time. It is suggested that photochemical reactions play a major role in the generation of cloud nuclei.
A close examination of the data suggests that the long-term trend, while indicating a general increase in pollution levels, could as readily be interpreted as fluctuations with changes in local or global meteorological factors. A much greater period of observation would be required to decide the question.
Abstract
Cloud nucleus concentration measurements made at hourly intervals between 1968 and 1973 at Robertson, N. S. W., show a very clear diurnal pattern with a maximum at approximately 1800 local time and a minimum at 0600 local time. It is suggested that photochemical reactions play a major role in the generation of cloud nuclei.
A close examination of the data suggests that the long-term trend, while indicating a general increase in pollution levels, could as readily be interpreted as fluctuations with changes in local or global meteorological factors. A much greater period of observation would be required to decide the question.
Abstract
Microthermal sensors contaminated by salt aerosol droplets are subject to erroneous temperature fluctuations caused by water vapor exchange in response to fluctuations in humidity. The effect was studied by comparing the values of mean-square temperature fluctuations indicated by contaminated and clean sensors. The effect was negligible for ambient relative humidities above 85%, primarily due to the lack of humidity fluctuations. The errors were significantly diminished by frequent washing of the sensors.
Abstract
Microthermal sensors contaminated by salt aerosol droplets are subject to erroneous temperature fluctuations caused by water vapor exchange in response to fluctuations in humidity. The effect was studied by comparing the values of mean-square temperature fluctuations indicated by contaminated and clean sensors. The effect was negligible for ambient relative humidities above 85%, primarily due to the lack of humidity fluctuations. The errors were significantly diminished by frequent washing of the sensors.
Abstract
This is the third of a three-part investigation into tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS), an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast model. In Parts I and II, a primary and two secondary vortex enhancement mechanisms were illustrated, and shown to be responsible for TC genesis in a simulation of TC Chris. In this paper, five more TC-LAPS simulations are investigated: three developing and two nondeveloping. In each developing simulation the pathway to genesis was essentially the same as that reported in Part II. Potential vorticity (PV) cores developed through low- to middle-tropospheric vortex enhancement in model-resolved updraft cores (primary mechanism) and interacted to form larger cores through diabatic upscale vortex cascade (secondary mechanism). On the system scale, vortex intensification resulted from the large-scale mass redistribution forced by the upward mass flux, driven by diabatic heating, in the updraft cores (secondary mechanism). The nondeveloping cases illustrated that genesis can be hampered by (i) vertical wind shear, which may tilt and tear apart the PV cores as they develop, and (ii) an insufficient large-scale cyclonic environment, which may fail to sufficiently confine the warming and enhanced cyclonic winds, associated with the atmospheric adjustment to the convective updrafts.
The exact detail of the vortex interactions was found to be unimportant for qualitative genesis forecast success. Instead the critical ingredients were found to be sufficient net deep convection in a sufficiently cyclonic environment in which vertical shear was less than some destructive limit. The often-observed TC genesis pattern of convection convergence, where the active convective regions converge into a 100-km-diameter center, prior to an intense convective burst and development to tropical storm intensity is evident in the developing TC-LAPS simulations. The simulations presented in this study and numerous other simulations not yet reported on have shown good qualitative forecast success. Assuming such success continues in a more rigorous study (currently under way) it could be argued that TC genesis is largely predictable provided the large-scale environment (vorticity, vertical shear, and convective forcing) is sufficiently resolved and initialized.
Abstract
This is the third of a three-part investigation into tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS), an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast model. In Parts I and II, a primary and two secondary vortex enhancement mechanisms were illustrated, and shown to be responsible for TC genesis in a simulation of TC Chris. In this paper, five more TC-LAPS simulations are investigated: three developing and two nondeveloping. In each developing simulation the pathway to genesis was essentially the same as that reported in Part II. Potential vorticity (PV) cores developed through low- to middle-tropospheric vortex enhancement in model-resolved updraft cores (primary mechanism) and interacted to form larger cores through diabatic upscale vortex cascade (secondary mechanism). On the system scale, vortex intensification resulted from the large-scale mass redistribution forced by the upward mass flux, driven by diabatic heating, in the updraft cores (secondary mechanism). The nondeveloping cases illustrated that genesis can be hampered by (i) vertical wind shear, which may tilt and tear apart the PV cores as they develop, and (ii) an insufficient large-scale cyclonic environment, which may fail to sufficiently confine the warming and enhanced cyclonic winds, associated with the atmospheric adjustment to the convective updrafts.
The exact detail of the vortex interactions was found to be unimportant for qualitative genesis forecast success. Instead the critical ingredients were found to be sufficient net deep convection in a sufficiently cyclonic environment in which vertical shear was less than some destructive limit. The often-observed TC genesis pattern of convection convergence, where the active convective regions converge into a 100-km-diameter center, prior to an intense convective burst and development to tropical storm intensity is evident in the developing TC-LAPS simulations. The simulations presented in this study and numerous other simulations not yet reported on have shown good qualitative forecast success. Assuming such success continues in a more rigorous study (currently under way) it could be argued that TC genesis is largely predictable provided the large-scale environment (vorticity, vertical shear, and convective forcing) is sufficiently resolved and initialized.
Abstract
This is the first of a three-part investigation into tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS), an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast model. The primary TC-LAPS vortex enhancement mechanism is presented in Part I, the entire genesis process is illustrated in Part II using a single TC-LAPS simulation, and in Part III a number of simulations are presented exploring the sensitivity and variability of genesis forecasts in TC-LAPS.
The primary vortex enhancement mechanism in TC-LAPS is found to be convergence/stretching and vertical advection of absolute vorticity in deep intense updrafts, which result in deep vortex cores of 60–100 km in diameter (the minimum resolvable scale is limited by the 0.15° horizontal grid spacing). On the basis of the results presented, it is hypothesized that updrafts of this scale adequately represent mean vertical motions in real TC genesis convective regions, and perhaps that explicitly resolving the individual convective processes may not be necessary for qualitative TC genesis forecasts. Although observations of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution do not currently exist to support or refute this proposition, relatively large-scale (30 km and greater), lower- to midlevel tropospheric convergent regions have been observed in tropical oceanic environments during the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX), and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and regions of extreme convection of the order of 50 km are often (remotely) observed in TC genesis environments. These vortex cores are fundamental for genesis in TC-LAPS. They interact to form larger cores, and provide net heating that drives the system-scale secondary circulation, which enhances vorticity on the system scale akin to the classical Eliassen problem of a balanced vortex driven by heat sources. These secondary vortex enhancement mechanisms are documented in Part II.
In some recent TC genesis theories featured in the literature, vortex enhancement in deep convective regions of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has largely been ignored. Instead, they focus on the stratiform regions. While it is recognized that vortex enhancement through midlevel convergence into the stratiform precipitation deck can greatly enhance midtropospheric cyclonic vorticity, it is suggested here that this mechanism only increases the potential for genesis, whereas vortex enhancement through low- to midlevel convergence into deep convective regions is necessary for genesis.
Abstract
This is the first of a three-part investigation into tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS), an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast model. The primary TC-LAPS vortex enhancement mechanism is presented in Part I, the entire genesis process is illustrated in Part II using a single TC-LAPS simulation, and in Part III a number of simulations are presented exploring the sensitivity and variability of genesis forecasts in TC-LAPS.
The primary vortex enhancement mechanism in TC-LAPS is found to be convergence/stretching and vertical advection of absolute vorticity in deep intense updrafts, which result in deep vortex cores of 60–100 km in diameter (the minimum resolvable scale is limited by the 0.15° horizontal grid spacing). On the basis of the results presented, it is hypothesized that updrafts of this scale adequately represent mean vertical motions in real TC genesis convective regions, and perhaps that explicitly resolving the individual convective processes may not be necessary for qualitative TC genesis forecasts. Although observations of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution do not currently exist to support or refute this proposition, relatively large-scale (30 km and greater), lower- to midlevel tropospheric convergent regions have been observed in tropical oceanic environments during the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX), and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and regions of extreme convection of the order of 50 km are often (remotely) observed in TC genesis environments. These vortex cores are fundamental for genesis in TC-LAPS. They interact to form larger cores, and provide net heating that drives the system-scale secondary circulation, which enhances vorticity on the system scale akin to the classical Eliassen problem of a balanced vortex driven by heat sources. These secondary vortex enhancement mechanisms are documented in Part II.
In some recent TC genesis theories featured in the literature, vortex enhancement in deep convective regions of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has largely been ignored. Instead, they focus on the stratiform regions. While it is recognized that vortex enhancement through midlevel convergence into the stratiform precipitation deck can greatly enhance midtropospheric cyclonic vorticity, it is suggested here that this mechanism only increases the potential for genesis, whereas vortex enhancement through low- to midlevel convergence into deep convective regions is necessary for genesis.
Abstract
A case study of ocean radar backscatter dependence on near-surface wind and wind stress is presented using the data obtained on 18 February 1986 during the Frontal Air-Sea Interaction Experiment. Our interest in this case stems from the particular wind-wave conditions and their variations across a sharp sea surface temperature front. These are described. Most importantly, the small change in wind speed across the front cannot account for the large change in wind stress implying significant changes in the drag coefficient and surface roughness length. When compared with previous results, the corresponding changes in radar backscatter cross-section at 50° and 20° angles of incidence were consistent with the observed variations in wind stress, but inconsistent with both the mean wind and the equivalent neutral wind. Although not definitive, the results strengthen the hypothesis that radar backscatter is closely correlated to wind stress, and therefore, could be used for remote sensing of the wind stress itself over the global oceans.
Abstract
A case study of ocean radar backscatter dependence on near-surface wind and wind stress is presented using the data obtained on 18 February 1986 during the Frontal Air-Sea Interaction Experiment. Our interest in this case stems from the particular wind-wave conditions and their variations across a sharp sea surface temperature front. These are described. Most importantly, the small change in wind speed across the front cannot account for the large change in wind stress implying significant changes in the drag coefficient and surface roughness length. When compared with previous results, the corresponding changes in radar backscatter cross-section at 50° and 20° angles of incidence were consistent with the observed variations in wind stress, but inconsistent with both the mean wind and the equivalent neutral wind. Although not definitive, the results strengthen the hypothesis that radar backscatter is closely correlated to wind stress, and therefore, could be used for remote sensing of the wind stress itself over the global oceans.
