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Sean M. Davis
and
Karen H. Rosenlof

Abstract

Poleward migration of the latitudinal edge of the tropics of 0.25°–3.0° decade−1 has been reported in several recent studies based on satellite and radiosonde data and reanalysis output covering the past ~30 yr. The goal of this paper is to identify the extent to which this large range of trends can be explained by the use of different data sources, time periods, and edge definitions, as well as how the widening varies as a function of hemisphere and season. Toward this end, a suite of tropical edge latitude diagnostics based on tropopause height, winds, precipitation–evaporation, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are analyzed using several reanalyses and satellite datasets. These diagnostics include both previously used definitions and new definitions designed for more robust detection. The wide range of widening trends is shown to be primarily due to the use of different datasets and edge definitions and only secondarily due to varying start–end dates. This study also shows that the large trends (>~1° decade−1) previously reported in tropopause and OLR diagnostics are due to the use of subjective definitions based on absolute thresholds. Statistically significant Hadley cell expansion based on the mean meridional streamfunction of 1.0°–1.5° decade−1 is found in three of four reanalyses that cover the full time period (1979–2009), whereas other diagnostics yield trends of −0.5°–0.8° decade−1 that are mostly insignificant. There are indications of hemispheric and seasonal differences in the trends, but the differences are not statistically significant.

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Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Duane E. Stevens
,
John R. Anderson
, and
Paul E. Ciesielski

Abstract

The term Walker Circulation is used to refer to the zonal overturning across the equatorial Pacific driven by enhanced convection over the Indonesian region. In this work, an attempt is made to simulate the Walker Circulation using a linear model that includes a cumulus friction parameterization. The work of Geisler is extended by including a realistic mean zonal wind field obtained from the FGGE dataset and a prescribed mean Hadley cell that is computed from an analytical streamfunction.

The model is forced by a stationary tropical heat source. The sensitivity of the model circulation to changes in the basic state is examined. Model results show that the inclusion of a nonzero mean zonal wind field tends to enhance the extratropical response in the winter hemisphere. Including a cumulus friction parameterization tends to damp the zonal wind response near the heating center and also lower the level of zero zonal wind in the model Walker Circulation.

Including a mean Hadley cell in the basic state has the greatest effect on the model circulation in the tropics. It acts to raise the level of zero wind which makes the model circulation better resemble the observed Walker Circulation. Advection by the mean vertical velocity field is found to be a major term in the u-momentum equation and is of opposite sign from the largest cumulus friction term. Results indicate that when cumulus friction is included in a linear model calculation, a mean vertical velocity field should also be included.

When the effects of the zonal mean winds and the Hadley Cell/cumulus friction terms are included the model response resembles the observed tropical and subtropical responses to the El Niño ocean temperature anomaly.

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William J. Randel
,
Fei Wu
,
Samuel J. Oltmans
,
Karen Rosenlof
, and
Gerald E. Nedoluha

Abstract

Interannual variations of stratospheric water vapor over 1992–2003 are studied using Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite measurements. Interannual anomalies in water vapor with an approximate 2-yr periodicity are evident near the tropical tropopause, and these propagate vertically and latitudinally with the mean stratospheric transport circulation (in a manner analogous to the seasonal “tape recorder”). Unusually low water vapor anomalies are observed in the lower stratosphere for 2001–03. These interannual anomalies are also observed in Arctic lower-stratospheric water vapor measurements by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) satellite instrument during 1998–2003. Comparisons of the HALOE data with balloon measurements of lower-stratospheric water vapor at Boulder, Colorado (40°N), show partial agreement for seasonal and interannual changes during 1992–2002, but decadal increases observed in the balloon measurements for this period are not observed in HALOE data. Interannual changes in HALOE water vapor are well correlated with anomalies in tropical tropopause temperatures. The approximate 2-yr periodicity is attributable to tropopause temperature changes associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

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Paul J. Young
,
David W. J. Thompson
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Susan Solomon
, and
Jean-François Lamarque

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that lower-stratosphere temperatures display a near-perfect cancellation between tropical and extratropical latitudes on both annual and interannual time scales. The out-of-phase relationship between tropical and high-latitude lower-stratospheric temperatures is a consequence of variability in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). In this study, the signal of the BDC in stratospheric temperature variability is examined throughout the depth of the stratosphere using data from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU).

While the BDC has a seemingly modest signal in the annual cycle in zonal-mean temperatures in the mid- and upper stratosphere, it has a pronounced signal in the month-to-month and interannual variability. Tropical and extratropical temperatures are significantly negatively correlated in all SSU channels on interannual time scales, suggesting that variations in wave driving are a major factor controlling global-scale temperature variability not only in the lower stratosphere (as shown in previous studies), but also in the mid- and upper stratosphere. The out-of-phase relationship between tropical and high latitudes peaks at all levels during the cold-season months: December–March in the Northern Hemisphere and July–October in the Southern Hemisphere. In the upper stratosphere, the out-of-phase relationship with high-latitude temperatures extends beyond the tropics and well into the extratropics of the opposite hemisphere.

The seasonal cycle in stratospheric temperatures follows the annual march of insolation at all levels and latitudes except in the mid- to upper tropical stratosphere, where it is dominated by the semiannual oscillation. Mid- to upper-stratospheric temperatures also exhibit a distinct but small semiannual cycle at extratropical latitudes.

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Albert Ossó
,
Yolanda Sola
,
Karen Rosenlof
,
Birgit Hassler
,
Joan Bech
, and
Jerónimo Lorente

Abstract

Most global circulation models and climate–chemistry models forced with increasing greenhouse gases predict a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the twenty-first century, and some of them claim that such strengthening has already begun at the end of the twentieth century. However, observational evidence for such a trend remains inconclusive. The goal of this paper is to examine the evidence for observed trends in the stratospheric overturning circulation using a suite of currently available observational stratospheric temperature data. Trends are examined as “departures” from the global mean temperature, since such trends reflect the effects of dynamics and spatially inhomogeneous radiative forcing and are to first order independent of the direct radiative effects of increasing well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations.

The primary conclusion of the study is that temperature observations do not reveal statistically significant trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation over the period from 1979 to the present, as covered by Microwave Sounding Unit and Stratospheric Sounding Unit temperatures. The estimated trends in the BDC are weak in all datasets and not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. In many cases, different data products yield very different results, particularly when the trends are stratified by season. Implications for the interpretation of recent stratospheric climate change are discussed. The results illustrate the essential need to better constrain the accuracy of future stratospheric temperature datasets.

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Paul J. Young
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Susan Solomon
,
Steven C. Sherwood
,
Qiang Fu
, and
Jean-François Lamarque

Abstract

Seasonally and vertically resolved changes in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) were inferred using temperatures measured by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU), Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), and radiosondes.

Linear trends in an empirically derived “BDC index” (extratropical minus tropical temperatures), over 1979–2005, were found to be consistent with a significant strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) branch of the BDC during December throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Trends in the same index suggest a significant strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere branch of the BDC during August through to the midstratosphere, as well as a significant weakening during March in the NH lower stratosphere. Such trends, however, are only significant if it is assumed that interannual variability due to the BDC can be removed by regression of the tropics against the extratropics and vice versa (i.e., exploiting the out-of-phase nature of tropical and extratropical temperatures as demonstrated by previous studies of temperature and the BDC).

The possibility that the apparent lower-stratosphere BDC December strengthening and March weakening could point to a change in the seasonal cycle of the circulation is also explored. The differences between a 1979–91 average and 1995–2005 average tropical temperature seasonal cycle in lower-stratospheric MSU data show an apparent shift in the minimum from February to January, consistent with a change in the timing of the maximum wave driving. Additionally, the importance of decadal variability in shaping the overall trends is highlighted, in particular for the suggested March BDC weakening, which may now be strengthening from a minimum in the 1990s.

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Fred L. Moore
,
Eric A. Ray
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
James W. Elkins
,
Pieter Tans
,
Anna Karion
, and
Colm Sweeney

A stratospheric trace gas measurement program using balloon-based sonde and AirCore sampler techniques is proposed as a way to monitor the strength of the stratospheric mean meridional or Brewer–Dobson circulation. Modeling work predicts a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations; such a change will likely impact tropospheric climate. Because the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation is an unmeasureable quantity, trace gas measurements are used to infer characteristics of the circulation. At present, stratospheric trace gas measurements are sporadic in time and/or place, primarily associated with localized aircraft or balloon campaigns or relatively short-lived satellite instruments. This program would consist of regular trace gas profile measurements taken at multiple latitudes covering tropical, midlatitude, and polar regimes. The program would make use of the relatively low-cost AirCore and sonde techniques, allowing more frequent measurements given the significantly lower cost than with current techniques. The program will provide a means of monitoring changes in the strength and redistribution of the stratospheric circulation. The goals are to monitor the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and to improve understanding of the reasons for stratospheric circulation changes, ultimately resulting in more realistic model predictions of climate change for the coming decades.

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Simone Tilmes
,
Andrea Smith
,
Peter Lawrence
,
Tim Barnes
,
Greeshma Gadikota
,
Wojciech Grabowski
,
Douglas G. MacMartin
,
Brian Medeiros
,
Monica Morrison
,
Andreas Prein
,
Roy Rasmussen
,
Karen Rosenlof
,
Dale S. Rothman
,
Anton Seimon
,
Gyami Shrestha
, and
Britton B. Stephens
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Kevin M. Grise
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Isla R. Simpson
,
Darryn W. Waugh
,
Qiang Fu
,
Robert J. Allen
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Caroline C. Ummenhofer
,
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
,
Amanda C. Maycock
,
Xiao-Wei Quan
,
Thomas Birner
, and
Paul W. Staten

Abstract

Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.

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Paul W. Staten
,
Kevin M. Grise
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
,
Darryn W. Waugh
,
Amanda C. Maycock
,
Qiang Fu
,
Kerry Cook
,
Ori Adam
,
Isla R. Simpson
,
Robert J Allen
,
Karen Rosenlof
,
Gang Chen
,
Caroline C. Ummenhofer
,
Xiao-Wei Quan
,
James P. Kossin
,
Nicholas A. Davis
, and
Seok-Woo Son

Abstract

Over the past 15 years, numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward over the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. Early estimates of this tropical widening from satellite observations and reanalyses varied from 0.25° to 3° latitude per decade, while estimates from global climate models show widening at the lower end of the observed range. In 2016, two working groups, the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project, were formed to synthesize current understanding of the magnitude, causes, and impacts of the recent tropical widening evident in observations. These working groups concluded that the large rates of observed tropical widening noted by earlier studies resulted from their use of metrics that poorly capture changes in the Hadley circulation, or from the use of reanalyses that contained spurious trends. Accounting for these issues reduces the range of observed expansion rates to 0.25°–0.5° latitude decade‒1—within the range from model simulations. Models indicate that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere tropical widening is consistent with natural variability, whereas increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone likely played an important role in Southern Hemisphere widening. Whatever the cause or rate of expansion, understanding the regional impacts of tropical widening requires additional work, as different forcings can produce different regional patterns of widening.

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