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- Author or Editor: Kathleen Sherman-Morris x
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Abstract
Recent social science research has provided a better understanding of risk communication and decision-making. However, less is understood about the public’s actual weather knowledge, how they assess their weather knowledge, and how knowledge may relate to weather forecast information use. The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of self-perceived and assessed weather knowledge of participants. Psychology literature indicates some people are prone to overestimating their knowledge, which is known as the Dunning–Kruger effect (DKE), but this has yet to be studied in a meteorological context. This study compared participants’ assessed weather knowledge with their self-perceived weather knowledge, and results indicate participants with the lowest assessed weather knowledge do overestimate their weather knowledge, a result consistent with previous psychological studies. Participants who obtained a weather forecast more frequently exhibited higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge. Higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge was also observed among users of a specialty weather website compared to a more general audience. The study raises interesting questions about how users of different weather sources acquire or (add to) their weather knowledge and is the first study to explore DKE in the context of weather communication.
Abstract
Recent social science research has provided a better understanding of risk communication and decision-making. However, less is understood about the public’s actual weather knowledge, how they assess their weather knowledge, and how knowledge may relate to weather forecast information use. The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of self-perceived and assessed weather knowledge of participants. Psychology literature indicates some people are prone to overestimating their knowledge, which is known as the Dunning–Kruger effect (DKE), but this has yet to be studied in a meteorological context. This study compared participants’ assessed weather knowledge with their self-perceived weather knowledge, and results indicate participants with the lowest assessed weather knowledge do overestimate their weather knowledge, a result consistent with previous psychological studies. Participants who obtained a weather forecast more frequently exhibited higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge. Higher perceived and assessed weather knowledge was also observed among users of a specialty weather website compared to a more general audience. The study raises interesting questions about how users of different weather sources acquire or (add to) their weather knowledge and is the first study to explore DKE in the context of weather communication.
Two freely available, searchable databases that track the normalized interest in specific search queries, Google Trends and Google Insights, were used to illustrate spatial and temporal patterns in hurricane information seeking. Searches for the word “hurricane” showed a seasonal pattern with spikes in hurricane searches that corresponded to the severity of the storms making landfall. Regional variation in “hurricane” searches was largely driven by the location and magnitude of hurricane landfalls. Catastrophic hurricanes such as Hurricane Katrina captured national attention. A great deal of regional variation in search volume existed prior to Hurricane Ike's landfall. Not as much variation was seen before Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. This variation appeared to be related to changes in the 5-day track forecast as well as other factors such as issuance of watches and warnings. Searches from Louisiana experienced a sharp decrease after the 5-day track forecast shifted away from the state, but before Ike made landfall. Normalized daily visits to Weather Underground during August/September 2008 followed the same pattern as the Google searches. The most popular hurricane-related search terms at the national level prior to landfall dealt with forecast track and evacuation information while searches after landfall included terms related to hurricane damage. There are limitations to using this free data source, but the study has implications for the literature as well as practical applications. This study provides new information about online search behavior before a hurricane that can be utilized by those who provide weather information to the public.
Two freely available, searchable databases that track the normalized interest in specific search queries, Google Trends and Google Insights, were used to illustrate spatial and temporal patterns in hurricane information seeking. Searches for the word “hurricane” showed a seasonal pattern with spikes in hurricane searches that corresponded to the severity of the storms making landfall. Regional variation in “hurricane” searches was largely driven by the location and magnitude of hurricane landfalls. Catastrophic hurricanes such as Hurricane Katrina captured national attention. A great deal of regional variation in search volume existed prior to Hurricane Ike's landfall. Not as much variation was seen before Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. This variation appeared to be related to changes in the 5-day track forecast as well as other factors such as issuance of watches and warnings. Searches from Louisiana experienced a sharp decrease after the 5-day track forecast shifted away from the state, but before Ike made landfall. Normalized daily visits to Weather Underground during August/September 2008 followed the same pattern as the Google searches. The most popular hurricane-related search terms at the national level prior to landfall dealt with forecast track and evacuation information while searches after landfall included terms related to hurricane damage. There are limitations to using this free data source, but the study has implications for the literature as well as practical applications. This study provides new information about online search behavior before a hurricane that can be utilized by those who provide weather information to the public.
Abstract
Risk perception and the desire to personalize and confirm warning information have been associated with protective action. Risk perception typically increases with close proximity to a threat, but research involving time, space, and tornado risk perception has stopped short of attempting to define a distance at which an individual would believe they are personally at risk from a tornado. In this study, we surveyed 1,023 individuals across the southeastern United States at risk from tornadoes. The goal was to add to our understanding of the role of distance in tornado risk perception by quantifying an individual’s “worry distance.” The study examined an individual’s worry distance in multiple ways, including three map-based warning scenarios. Our results indicated that participants would worry about their house or loved ones or take shelter in a tornado if it was on average within 11–12 mi. These distances were greater than the 7–8 mi at which they believed they could see, hear, or feel the effects of a tornado. There was a considerable amount of variation in the self-reported distances, some of which can be explained by past exposure. When provided tornado warning maps with varying scales or county borders, neither map scale nor the presence of a border had an influence. The lack of any influence of map scale raises the question of how individuals consider objective geospatial distance when using a map-based warning for familiar or novel locations.
Abstract
Risk perception and the desire to personalize and confirm warning information have been associated with protective action. Risk perception typically increases with close proximity to a threat, but research involving time, space, and tornado risk perception has stopped short of attempting to define a distance at which an individual would believe they are personally at risk from a tornado. In this study, we surveyed 1,023 individuals across the southeastern United States at risk from tornadoes. The goal was to add to our understanding of the role of distance in tornado risk perception by quantifying an individual’s “worry distance.” The study examined an individual’s worry distance in multiple ways, including three map-based warning scenarios. Our results indicated that participants would worry about their house or loved ones or take shelter in a tornado if it was on average within 11–12 mi. These distances were greater than the 7–8 mi at which they believed they could see, hear, or feel the effects of a tornado. There was a considerable amount of variation in the self-reported distances, some of which can be explained by past exposure. When provided tornado warning maps with varying scales or county borders, neither map scale nor the presence of a border had an influence. The lack of any influence of map scale raises the question of how individuals consider objective geospatial distance when using a map-based warning for familiar or novel locations.
Abstract
Due to the current use and reliance on tornado warning polygons, several published articles have concentrated on themes related to risk perception and interpretation of risk within and outside of polygons. Despite the general success of warning polygons, not everybody is able to spatially estimate their risk by looking at maps with tornado warning polygons. Using polygons in conjunction with radar images can improve comprehension and better inform protective action decision-making for tornado warnings. Additionally, a potential latent area of research is how past tornado tracks and climatological knowledge about tornado path directions may influence tornado risk perception and protective action decision-making. In this study, we surveyed 1,023 individuals across the southeastern United States. Participants were asked to rate their level of concern for a tornadic supercell moving toward two locations. They were also asked to name the direction tornadoes usually come from and travel toward in their counties. Results indicated significantly more concern about the radar reflectivity within the supercell than concern about the location of the hook echo. Additionally, the perceived directions of tornado paths across the region were inaccurate with 75% of the sample either not answering, indicating that they did not know the most common direction for tornado paths, or answering that tornadoes travel in uncommon or unrealistic path directions. The Atlanta metropolitan area was used as a case study to illustrate inaccurate perceptions of path directions.
Abstract
Due to the current use and reliance on tornado warning polygons, several published articles have concentrated on themes related to risk perception and interpretation of risk within and outside of polygons. Despite the general success of warning polygons, not everybody is able to spatially estimate their risk by looking at maps with tornado warning polygons. Using polygons in conjunction with radar images can improve comprehension and better inform protective action decision-making for tornado warnings. Additionally, a potential latent area of research is how past tornado tracks and climatological knowledge about tornado path directions may influence tornado risk perception and protective action decision-making. In this study, we surveyed 1,023 individuals across the southeastern United States. Participants were asked to rate their level of concern for a tornadic supercell moving toward two locations. They were also asked to name the direction tornadoes usually come from and travel toward in their counties. Results indicated significantly more concern about the radar reflectivity within the supercell than concern about the location of the hook echo. Additionally, the perceived directions of tornado paths across the region were inaccurate with 75% of the sample either not answering, indicating that they did not know the most common direction for tornado paths, or answering that tornadoes travel in uncommon or unrealistic path directions. The Atlanta metropolitan area was used as a case study to illustrate inaccurate perceptions of path directions.
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in unprecedented challenges that dramatically affected the way of life in the United States and globally in 2020. The pandemic also made the process of protecting individuals from tornadoes more challenging, especially when their personal residence lacks suitable shelter, and particularly for residents of mobile homes. The necessity of having to shelter with other families—either in a public shelter or at another residence—to protect themselves from a tornado threat conflicted with the advice of public health officials who recommended avoiding public places and limiting contact with the public to minimize the spread of COVID-19. There was also a perception that protecting against one threat could amplify the other threat. A survey was undertaken with the public to determine the general viewpoint to see if that was indeed the case. The results found that it was possible to attenuate both threats provided that careful planning and actions were undertaken. Understanding how emergency managers should react and plan for such dual threats is important to minimize the spread of COVID-19 while also maintaining the safety of the public. Because there was no precedence for tornado protection scenarios amid a pandemic, both short-term and long-term recommendations were suggested that may also be useful in future pandemic situations.
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in unprecedented challenges that dramatically affected the way of life in the United States and globally in 2020. The pandemic also made the process of protecting individuals from tornadoes more challenging, especially when their personal residence lacks suitable shelter, and particularly for residents of mobile homes. The necessity of having to shelter with other families—either in a public shelter or at another residence—to protect themselves from a tornado threat conflicted with the advice of public health officials who recommended avoiding public places and limiting contact with the public to minimize the spread of COVID-19. There was also a perception that protecting against one threat could amplify the other threat. A survey was undertaken with the public to determine the general viewpoint to see if that was indeed the case. The results found that it was possible to attenuate both threats provided that careful planning and actions were undertaken. Understanding how emergency managers should react and plan for such dual threats is important to minimize the spread of COVID-19 while also maintaining the safety of the public. Because there was no precedence for tornado protection scenarios amid a pandemic, both short-term and long-term recommendations were suggested that may also be useful in future pandemic situations.
Abstract
A great deal of research has been conducted regarding tornado warnings and protective actions taken, including some studies in which respondents were presented with hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. Much less research has been conducted in which respondents were presented with tornado watch scenarios, even though they cover a larger area and longer time period, thus potentially disrupting a far greater number of people. To address this lack of research, surveys were used to determine the influence of severe weather watches on planned Saturday afternoon and evening activities away from the immediate vicinity of the respondent’s home. Respondents were presented a hypothetical watch scenario, in which they had some activity planned for later that afternoon or evening. Each respondent rated his or her likelihood to continue an activity depending on the severity of the watch and the length of the activity. Respondents were provided information about each hypothetical watch including duration and primary threats. Responses from the survey indicated that as the severity of the watch or the length of the activity increased, the likelihood of the respondent continuing the activity decreased. For a severe thunderstorm watch, a tornado watch, and a particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch, 36.1%, 51.2%, and 80.2% of the respondents, respectively, would not continue an activity lasting 30 min or longer.
Abstract
A great deal of research has been conducted regarding tornado warnings and protective actions taken, including some studies in which respondents were presented with hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. Much less research has been conducted in which respondents were presented with tornado watch scenarios, even though they cover a larger area and longer time period, thus potentially disrupting a far greater number of people. To address this lack of research, surveys were used to determine the influence of severe weather watches on planned Saturday afternoon and evening activities away from the immediate vicinity of the respondent’s home. Respondents were presented a hypothetical watch scenario, in which they had some activity planned for later that afternoon or evening. Each respondent rated his or her likelihood to continue an activity depending on the severity of the watch and the length of the activity. Respondents were provided information about each hypothetical watch including duration and primary threats. Responses from the survey indicated that as the severity of the watch or the length of the activity increased, the likelihood of the respondent continuing the activity decreased. For a severe thunderstorm watch, a tornado watch, and a particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch, 36.1%, 51.2%, and 80.2% of the respondents, respectively, would not continue an activity lasting 30 min or longer.
Abstract
Color is an important variable in the graphical communication of weather information. The effect of different colors on understanding and perception is not always considered prior to releasing an image to the public. This study tests the influence of color as well as legend values on the effectiveness of communicating storm surge potential. In this study, 40 individuals participated in an eye-tracking experiment in which they responded to eight questions about five different storm scenarios. Color was varied among three palettes (shades of blue, green to red, and yellow to purple), and legends were varied to display categorical values in feet (<3, 3–6, etc.) or text descriptions (low, medium, etc.). Questions measured accuracy, perceived risk, and perceived helpfulness. Overall, accuracy was high and few statistically significant differences were observed across color/legend combinations. Evidence did suggest that the blue values condition may have been the most difficult to interpret. Statistical support for this claim includes longer response times and a greater number of eye fixations on the legend. The feet values condition also led to a greater number of eye fixations on the legend and letter markers than the category text condition. The green–red condition was the strong preference among all groups as the color condition that best informs the public about storm surge risk. This color palette led to slightly higher levels of accuracy and perceived helpfulness, but the differences were not significant.
Abstract
Color is an important variable in the graphical communication of weather information. The effect of different colors on understanding and perception is not always considered prior to releasing an image to the public. This study tests the influence of color as well as legend values on the effectiveness of communicating storm surge potential. In this study, 40 individuals participated in an eye-tracking experiment in which they responded to eight questions about five different storm scenarios. Color was varied among three palettes (shades of blue, green to red, and yellow to purple), and legends were varied to display categorical values in feet (<3, 3–6, etc.) or text descriptions (low, medium, etc.). Questions measured accuracy, perceived risk, and perceived helpfulness. Overall, accuracy was high and few statistically significant differences were observed across color/legend combinations. Evidence did suggest that the blue values condition may have been the most difficult to interpret. Statistical support for this claim includes longer response times and a greater number of eye fixations on the legend. The feet values condition also led to a greater number of eye fixations on the legend and letter markers than the category text condition. The green–red condition was the strong preference among all groups as the color condition that best informs the public about storm surge risk. This color palette led to slightly higher levels of accuracy and perceived helpfulness, but the differences were not significant.
Abstract
Although there is clear evidence that proximity to a tornado or forecast tornado increases an individual’s risk perception, the specific relationships between risk personalization and spatial variables are unclear. It has also been established that one’s own evaluation of distance does not always match objective measurement. This study sought to explain the differences in the distance at which an individual would personalize the risk from a tornado across personally relevant geospatial factors such as the distance between places frequented (e.g., home and work), urban/rural classification of the area, and the length of residence in the county. A survey of 1023 respondents across eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) was used to obtain risk personalization distances, which were distinguished as “worry distances” (the distances at which one would worry about their house or loved ones, or take protective action) and “confirmation distances” (the distances at which one would expect to see, hear, or feel the effects of a tornado). We found that individuals who traveled greater distances and traveled more frequently to the grocery store and another location, those who self-defined their area as urban, and those with advanced degrees had increased risk personalization distances. Lengthier residency in the county influenced these distances as well. Future research is required to better comprehend the relationship of place, risk perception, and geographic mobility on protective action when a tornado occurs.
Significance Statement
Greater tornado risk personalization distances were associated with self-defining as urban, having an advanced degree, and driving farther and more frequently to the grocery store and to another location. Longer length of residence was associated with shorter risk personalization distances. With rural participants expressing shorter tornado risk personalization distances, warning communicators with the ability to tailor messages to multiple communities may wish to adjust messages no the basis of whether they are targeted to rural communities or to urban communities.
Abstract
Although there is clear evidence that proximity to a tornado or forecast tornado increases an individual’s risk perception, the specific relationships between risk personalization and spatial variables are unclear. It has also been established that one’s own evaluation of distance does not always match objective measurement. This study sought to explain the differences in the distance at which an individual would personalize the risk from a tornado across personally relevant geospatial factors such as the distance between places frequented (e.g., home and work), urban/rural classification of the area, and the length of residence in the county. A survey of 1023 respondents across eight states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) was used to obtain risk personalization distances, which were distinguished as “worry distances” (the distances at which one would worry about their house or loved ones, or take protective action) and “confirmation distances” (the distances at which one would expect to see, hear, or feel the effects of a tornado). We found that individuals who traveled greater distances and traveled more frequently to the grocery store and another location, those who self-defined their area as urban, and those with advanced degrees had increased risk personalization distances. Lengthier residency in the county influenced these distances as well. Future research is required to better comprehend the relationship of place, risk perception, and geographic mobility on protective action when a tornado occurs.
Significance Statement
Greater tornado risk personalization distances were associated with self-defining as urban, having an advanced degree, and driving farther and more frequently to the grocery store and to another location. Longer length of residence was associated with shorter risk personalization distances. With rural participants expressing shorter tornado risk personalization distances, warning communicators with the ability to tailor messages to multiple communities may wish to adjust messages no the basis of whether they are targeted to rural communities or to urban communities.
Abstract
NOAA has recently placed greater emphasis on implementing social science findings into its products, but perceptions of social science research among National Weather Service offices have not been gauged. To this end, Warning Coordination Meteorologists (WCMs) were surveyed regarding the importance of social science research themes to their local offices. WCMs were also asked to rate their knowledge about several prominent topics and to state their opinions about potential problem issues, such as false alarms, hype, and message inconsistency. Sixty-one WCMs responded to the survey, representing each U.S. climate region. The respondents were favorable toward NOAA’s attention to social science, and nearly half have contacted or have been contacted by a social scientist. WCMs rated research themes that addressed how to communicate a message effectively and why individuals do not take action during a warning as being more important. They also rated their knowledge of why someone does not take action during a warning as being the lowest. WCMs expressed agreement that hype, inconsistency, and false alarms are “key problems” for their areas, but rated false alarms the least problematic. They also expressed agreement that inconsistency and false alarms influence credibility, as well as the precautions people take during warnings. Finally, respondents described their own most pressing research questions. The importance of behavior and communication was repeated throughout the open-ended questions. Prominent themes included how to make the message more effective and how to get people to respond in an appropriate way upon receiving warning messages.
Abstract
NOAA has recently placed greater emphasis on implementing social science findings into its products, but perceptions of social science research among National Weather Service offices have not been gauged. To this end, Warning Coordination Meteorologists (WCMs) were surveyed regarding the importance of social science research themes to their local offices. WCMs were also asked to rate their knowledge about several prominent topics and to state their opinions about potential problem issues, such as false alarms, hype, and message inconsistency. Sixty-one WCMs responded to the survey, representing each U.S. climate region. The respondents were favorable toward NOAA’s attention to social science, and nearly half have contacted or have been contacted by a social scientist. WCMs rated research themes that addressed how to communicate a message effectively and why individuals do not take action during a warning as being more important. They also rated their knowledge of why someone does not take action during a warning as being the lowest. WCMs expressed agreement that hype, inconsistency, and false alarms are “key problems” for their areas, but rated false alarms the least problematic. They also expressed agreement that inconsistency and false alarms influence credibility, as well as the precautions people take during warnings. Finally, respondents described their own most pressing research questions. The importance of behavior and communication was repeated throughout the open-ended questions. Prominent themes included how to make the message more effective and how to get people to respond in an appropriate way upon receiving warning messages.
