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Abstract
Since about 1950 there has been a trend in the California Sierra Nevada toward a decreasing portion of the total annual streamflow occurring during April through July, while the streamflow during autumn and winter has increase. This trend not only has important ramifications with regard to water management, it also brings up the question of whether this represents a shift toward earlier release of the snowpack resulting from greenhouse warming. Therefore, the observed record has been examined in terms of relative influences of temperature and precipitation anomalies on the timing of streamflow in this region. To carry out this study, the fraction of annual streamflow (called the fractional streamflow) occurring in November-January (NDJ), February-April (FMA), and May-July (MJJ) at low, medium, and high elevation basins in California and 0regon was examined. Linear regression models were used to relate precipitation and temperature to the fractional streamflow at the three elevations for each season. Composites of monthly temperature and precipitation were employed to further examine the fractional streanflow in its high and low tercile extremes. Long time series of climatic and hydrologic data were also looked at to infer the causes in the trend toward earlier runoff.
For the low-elevation basins, there is a dominant influence of precipitation on seasonal fractional streamflow. Middle-elevation basins exhibit a longer memory of precipitation and temperature in relation to their fractional stream-flow. In-season precipitation is still the most important influence upon NDJ and FMA fractional streamflow; however, the influence of temperature in melting the snowpack is seen on MJJ fractional streamflow, whose strongest influence is FMA temperature. At higher elevation prior-season precipitation exerts a greater influence than at low and middle elevations, and seasonal temperature anomalies have an effect on all seasonal streamflow fractions.
There are several causes for the trend toward decreasing fractional streamflow in the spring and summer. Concomitant with the trend in the timing of streamflow was an increase in NDJ (most notably November) precipitation. There also has been a trend toward higher spring temperatures over most of the western United States, but since them has also been a trend toward decreasing temperatures in the southeast, we do not interpret this as a signal of anthropogenic warming. Other factors in the trend toward earlier streamflow may include a decrease in MJJ precipitation and an increase in August–October precipitation.
Abstract
Since about 1950 there has been a trend in the California Sierra Nevada toward a decreasing portion of the total annual streamflow occurring during April through July, while the streamflow during autumn and winter has increase. This trend not only has important ramifications with regard to water management, it also brings up the question of whether this represents a shift toward earlier release of the snowpack resulting from greenhouse warming. Therefore, the observed record has been examined in terms of relative influences of temperature and precipitation anomalies on the timing of streamflow in this region. To carry out this study, the fraction of annual streamflow (called the fractional streamflow) occurring in November-January (NDJ), February-April (FMA), and May-July (MJJ) at low, medium, and high elevation basins in California and 0regon was examined. Linear regression models were used to relate precipitation and temperature to the fractional streamflow at the three elevations for each season. Composites of monthly temperature and precipitation were employed to further examine the fractional streanflow in its high and low tercile extremes. Long time series of climatic and hydrologic data were also looked at to infer the causes in the trend toward earlier runoff.
For the low-elevation basins, there is a dominant influence of precipitation on seasonal fractional streamflow. Middle-elevation basins exhibit a longer memory of precipitation and temperature in relation to their fractional stream-flow. In-season precipitation is still the most important influence upon NDJ and FMA fractional streamflow; however, the influence of temperature in melting the snowpack is seen on MJJ fractional streamflow, whose strongest influence is FMA temperature. At higher elevation prior-season precipitation exerts a greater influence than at low and middle elevations, and seasonal temperature anomalies have an effect on all seasonal streamflow fractions.
There are several causes for the trend toward decreasing fractional streamflow in the spring and summer. Concomitant with the trend in the timing of streamflow was an increase in NDJ (most notably November) precipitation. There also has been a trend toward higher spring temperatures over most of the western United States, but since them has also been a trend toward decreasing temperatures in the southeast, we do not interpret this as a signal of anthropogenic warming. Other factors in the trend toward earlier streamflow may include a decrease in MJJ precipitation and an increase in August–October precipitation.
Abstract
Average vertical profiles of the vertical wind obtained under clear sky conditions as weal as under conditions of both light-to-moderate and heavy rainfall am presented from data obtained using a radar wind profiler located on the island of Pohnpei (latitude 7°N, longitude 157°E). The average profiles for the precipitation conditions were obtained, insofar as possible, under conditions similar to those present within the stratiform and convective regions of tropical mesoscale convective complexes. Comparison between the vertical wind profiles obtained from the wind profiler and vertical wind profiles obtained earlier by wore conventional methods (i.e., deduced from the convergence-divergence of mesoscale horizontal winds) shows that, while the general features of the profiles obtained by both techniques are similar, the profiler results exhibit somewhat more detail. The profiler is able to resolve long-term average vertical motions down to the, ∼cm s−1 subsidence that occurs under clear air conditions. Additional evidence for an apparent difference between vertical wind profiles in the Atlantic and Pacific regions in heavy convection reported earlier, is presented.
Abstract
Average vertical profiles of the vertical wind obtained under clear sky conditions as weal as under conditions of both light-to-moderate and heavy rainfall am presented from data obtained using a radar wind profiler located on the island of Pohnpei (latitude 7°N, longitude 157°E). The average profiles for the precipitation conditions were obtained, insofar as possible, under conditions similar to those present within the stratiform and convective regions of tropical mesoscale convective complexes. Comparison between the vertical wind profiles obtained from the wind profiler and vertical wind profiles obtained earlier by wore conventional methods (i.e., deduced from the convergence-divergence of mesoscale horizontal winds) shows that, while the general features of the profiles obtained by both techniques are similar, the profiler results exhibit somewhat more detail. The profiler is able to resolve long-term average vertical motions down to the, ∼cm s−1 subsidence that occurs under clear air conditions. Additional evidence for an apparent difference between vertical wind profiles in the Atlantic and Pacific regions in heavy convection reported earlier, is presented.
Abstract
We present the analysis of three months of continuous sea-surface current data obtained by a VHF wind profiling radar at Christmas Island in the central equatorial Pacific. These results, which were obtained during the construction phase of the profiler when the antenna had not yet been phased to eliminate sea scatter, show a number of interesting features of the coastal flow, as well as the flow at greater distances from the island. We report here both the average surface current characteristics as well as features of the shorter-term variability. In addition, we discuss the idea that such sea-surface current measurements could be obtained quite easily in the central Pacific, provided that they were made in conjunction with existing and/or proposed profiler sites.
Abstract
We present the analysis of three months of continuous sea-surface current data obtained by a VHF wind profiling radar at Christmas Island in the central equatorial Pacific. These results, which were obtained during the construction phase of the profiler when the antenna had not yet been phased to eliminate sea scatter, show a number of interesting features of the coastal flow, as well as the flow at greater distances from the island. We report here both the average surface current characteristics as well as features of the shorter-term variability. In addition, we discuss the idea that such sea-surface current measurements could be obtained quite easily in the central Pacific, provided that they were made in conjunction with existing and/or proposed profiler sites.
Abstract
The magnitude of backscattered power observed at vertical incidence by a VHF radar is related to atmospheric stability in accordance with the Fresnel scattering model. Utilizing a modified Fresnel scattering model, we can determine tropopause height objectively from the observed vertical profile of backscattered power. The method is tested with observations of the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX; France), Platteville, Colorado and Poker Mat, Alaska radars taken since 1979. Using 750 m resolution the tropopause is found to be within a few hundred meters of the tropopause determined from nearly simultaneous radiosonde observations and using 2.2 km resolution the tropopause is found to be within about 600 m. Furthermore, radar-determined tropopause heights can be automatically scaled from existing records, or even routinely determined on-line.
Abstract
The magnitude of backscattered power observed at vertical incidence by a VHF radar is related to atmospheric stability in accordance with the Fresnel scattering model. Utilizing a modified Fresnel scattering model, we can determine tropopause height objectively from the observed vertical profile of backscattered power. The method is tested with observations of the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX; France), Platteville, Colorado and Poker Mat, Alaska radars taken since 1979. Using 750 m resolution the tropopause is found to be within a few hundred meters of the tropopause determined from nearly simultaneous radiosonde observations and using 2.2 km resolution the tropopause is found to be within about 600 m. Furthermore, radar-determined tropopause heights can be automatically scaled from existing records, or even routinely determined on-line.
In this paper we provide a set of examples to demonstrate the potential of VHF radar wind profilers for studying tropical convection processes. Our examples were extracted from data obtained from the NOAA/CU Pacific Profiler Network, which has been in operation for a number of years and is currently being expanded.
In this paper we provide a set of examples to demonstrate the potential of VHF radar wind profilers for studying tropical convection processes. Our examples were extracted from data obtained from the NOAA/CU Pacific Profiler Network, which has been in operation for a number of years and is currently being expanded.
Abstract
Previous work has shown that the combined influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts the wintertime circulation over North America for lead times up to at least 4 weeks. These findings suggest that both the MJO and ENSO may prove beneficial for generating a seamless prediction link between short-range deterministic forecasts and longer-range seasonal forecasts. To test the feasibility of this link, wintertime (December–March) probabilistic 2-m temperature (T2m) forecasts over North America are generated solely on the basis of the linear trend and statistical relationships with the initial state of the MJO and ENSO. Overall, such forecasts exhibit substantial skill for some regions and some initial states of the MJO and ENSO out to a lead time of approximately 4 weeks. In addition, the primary ENSO T2m regions of influence are nearly orthogonal to those of the MJO, which suggests that the MJO and ENSO generally excite different patterns within the continuum of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections. The strong forecast skill scores for some regions and initial states confirm the promise that information from the MJO and ENSO may offer forecasts of opportunity in weeks 3 and 4, which extend beyond the current 2-week extended-range outlooks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and an intraseasonal link to longer-range probabilistic forecasts.
Abstract
Previous work has shown that the combined influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts the wintertime circulation over North America for lead times up to at least 4 weeks. These findings suggest that both the MJO and ENSO may prove beneficial for generating a seamless prediction link between short-range deterministic forecasts and longer-range seasonal forecasts. To test the feasibility of this link, wintertime (December–March) probabilistic 2-m temperature (T2m) forecasts over North America are generated solely on the basis of the linear trend and statistical relationships with the initial state of the MJO and ENSO. Overall, such forecasts exhibit substantial skill for some regions and some initial states of the MJO and ENSO out to a lead time of approximately 4 weeks. In addition, the primary ENSO T2m regions of influence are nearly orthogonal to those of the MJO, which suggests that the MJO and ENSO generally excite different patterns within the continuum of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections. The strong forecast skill scores for some regions and initial states confirm the promise that information from the MJO and ENSO may offer forecasts of opportunity in weeks 3 and 4, which extend beyond the current 2-week extended-range outlooks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and an intraseasonal link to longer-range probabilistic forecasts.
Abstract
After a decade of development, VHF wind profilers are being used for atmospheric research at several locations in the tropical Pacific. A prototype 50-MHz wind profiler was installed on Christmas Island in 1985 and has operated continuously since March 1986 to monitor tropical wind fields in the altitude range 1.8–1 8 km. This paper presents an overview of the Christmas Island wind profiler and reviews its performance. A survey of sample wind observations and a brief climatology of the observed winds are included.
Abstract
After a decade of development, VHF wind profilers are being used for atmospheric research at several locations in the tropical Pacific. A prototype 50-MHz wind profiler was installed on Christmas Island in 1985 and has operated continuously since March 1986 to monitor tropical wind fields in the altitude range 1.8–1 8 km. This paper presents an overview of the Christmas Island wind profiler and reviews its performance. A survey of sample wind observations and a brief climatology of the observed winds are included.
Abstract
Winds measured with 915- and 404-MHz wind profilers are frequently found to have nonrandom errors as large as 15 m s−1 when compared to simultaneously measured rawinsonde winds. Detailed studies of these errors which occur only at night below about 4 km in altitude and have a pronounced seasonal pattern, indicate that they are due to the wind profilers' detection of migrating songbirds (passerines). Characteristics of contaminated data at various stages of data processing are described, including raw time series, individual spectra, averaged spectra, 30- or 60-s moments, 3- or 6-min winds, and hourly averaged winds. An automated technique for the rejection of contaminated data in historical datasets, based on thresholding high values of rnoment-level reflectivity and spectral width, is shown to be effective. Techniques designed for future wind profiter data acquisition systems are described that show promise for rejecting bird echoes, with the additional capability of being able to retrieve the true wind velocity in many instances. Finally, characteristics of bird migration revealed by wind profilers are described, including statistics of the spring (March–May) 1993 migration season determined from the 404-MHz Wind Profiler Demonstration Network (WPDN). During that time, contamination of moment data occurred on 43% of the nights monitored.
Abstract
Winds measured with 915- and 404-MHz wind profilers are frequently found to have nonrandom errors as large as 15 m s−1 when compared to simultaneously measured rawinsonde winds. Detailed studies of these errors which occur only at night below about 4 km in altitude and have a pronounced seasonal pattern, indicate that they are due to the wind profilers' detection of migrating songbirds (passerines). Characteristics of contaminated data at various stages of data processing are described, including raw time series, individual spectra, averaged spectra, 30- or 60-s moments, 3- or 6-min winds, and hourly averaged winds. An automated technique for the rejection of contaminated data in historical datasets, based on thresholding high values of rnoment-level reflectivity and spectral width, is shown to be effective. Techniques designed for future wind profiter data acquisition systems are described that show promise for rejecting bird echoes, with the additional capability of being able to retrieve the true wind velocity in many instances. Finally, characteristics of bird migration revealed by wind profilers are described, including statistics of the spring (March–May) 1993 migration season determined from the 404-MHz Wind Profiler Demonstration Network (WPDN). During that time, contamination of moment data occurred on 43% of the nights monitored.
